Matt Brocklebank’s Value Bet has enjoyed 10/1, 10/1 and 18/1 winners in the past three weeks – don’t miss his Boxing Day advice.
Racing betting tips: Saturday, December 26
1pt win Galahad Quest in 1.15 Kempton at 20/1
1pt win One For The Team in 1.50 Kempton at 14/1
1pt win Windsor Avenue in 2.05 Wetherby at 11/1
1pt Black Op to be placed (1,2,3) in 3.00 Kempton at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The supplemented Santini is a very welcome addition to the 2020 field for the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase at Kempton.
Not that I’m expecting the move to pay off with victory for Nicky Henderson’s horse, but competition is everything at the highest level and without Santini, on top of Monalee's enforced absence, the way looked pretty well paved for Paul Nicholls to claim a 12th victory in the Boxing Day feature.
That still looks highly likely, of course. Clan Des Obeaux and Cyrname – both eight, rising nine – are entitled to be at their peak of physical fitness and it’s the latter I’d be siding with if having a bet on one of the pair.
He’s had a touch of genuine superstar about him for a couple of seasons now but we didn’t get to see the best of him on this day last year, around a track which really should play to his strengths. He won over the extended two and a half miles here as a novice in February 2018, since when his best efforts had all been at Ascot – until Wetherby.
The bet365 Charlie Hall Chase showed Cyrname in a new light altogether. The head-strong tearaway of his youth was relatively settled, still racing freely but seemingly more manageable than ever and his finishing effort was less loose cannon, more controlled explosion.
The form is solid too, third home Aye Right going on to be second in the Ladbrokes Trophy and runner-up Vinndication not yet done with before departing from the same Newbury contest.
I fancy him to win and cement his Cheltenham Gold Cup claims, but the urge to back Cyrname at 9/4 is easy enough to ignore and instead I want to have BLACK OP running for me in some shape or form.
He's had excuses so far this term – the ground was far too quick for him at Newbury last time and he looked badly in need of the run first time out over two and a half miles at Carlisle – but if you focus on last season’s efforts he’s no forlorn hope to hit the frame here.
A wide-margin winner first time back over fences at Stratford, he then followed home RSA Chase winner Champ at Newbury before finishing second in the Kauto Star on this card 12 months ago.
He’d lost his way a little bit the previous year but last season showed he was still capable of high-class performances and going back to his hurdling days he beat Lostintranslation in Grade One company at Aintree, having been a close second to Santini and then Samcro (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle) at Cheltenham earlier in 2018.
He’s a 100/1 shot because he’s got the best part of two stone to find on form, and in truth it’s very hard to see him winning if everything else stands up, but trainer Tom George has always prepared his horses extremely well for the bigger midwinter races – Nacarat, a course regular, was fourth in a couple of King Georges and Double Shuffle was second at 50/1 three years ago before finishing fifth when Clan Des Obeaux first won it.
A career-best effort over fences might just be forthcoming from Black Op and while that still probably won’t be enough to see him cause a massive shock, it’s not hard to see the horse running on past tiring rivals who have tried to go toe-to-toe with the big guns from halfway.
The question marks over Lostintranslation, Real Steel, Frodon and long-absent duo Waiting Patiently and Saint Calvados really do leave the door ajar for something to pick up the pieces, and Black Op looks as likely as anything.
Have a stab at him to be placed (1,2,3) which is a best-priced 14/1 with bet365 at the time of publication - though I'm fully aware a greater price may be available nearer the off, especially on the Betfair Exchange (currently 13.5).
The Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle, featuring odds-on Epatante, isn’t a betting medium but there does look to be a reasonable route into the opening Grade One of the afternoon at Kempton.
There are undoubtedly a few quicker and intrinsically classier types in the line-up for this year’s Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, but at the prices I’m keen on the claims of Nick Williams’ ONE FOR THE TEAM (14/1 General).
This race is invariably run at a breakneck gallop and often causes one or two issues in the jumping department. They can be really strung out a long way from home if something gets into a good rhythm out in front and stamina is inevitably brought into play, whether or not the leaders are able to maintain the tempo.
Barring Kalooki they’re all winners at the distance already but One For The Team is the one horse I see as an out-and-out slogger further down the line and he looks to be warming up nicely over fences this season.
He’s not blown anyone away yet, including the official handicapper who only has him on 140, but the six-year-old is coming into this undetected as a consequence, and I really liked his staying-on second to Next Destination in the John Francome at Newbury.
Time will tell precisely what he bumped into in Berkshire but I suspect it was something rather special and his Boxing Day rivals are no more frightening in reality (though a couple are rated a good bit higher at this stage).
Tom Scudamore (who also rides Black Op) has enjoyed some of his finest moments in the saddle around this course, including on Thistlecrack in the King George as well as Grands Crus and Dynaste in this race, and he seemed to get on very well with One For The Team when taking over from Chester Williams in the saddle last time out, including some fine leaps late on.
Williams snr – who seems to love a bit of Christmas cheer with an eyecatching 5-13 UK strike-rate on December 26 throughout his training career - knows just what’s required here having won the race himself in 2015 with Tea For Two and it’s worth noting he’s never had another runner in it, before or since.
Everything looks in place, including a nice bit of juice in the ground, for this year’s contender to at the very least outperform market expectations.
The Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase is one of the most appealing races for punters to get stuck into and Williams could potentially be in business here too with four-year-old GALAHAD QUEST (20/1 Betfair, Paddy Power) receiving weight-for-age from his rivals.
He boasts some quite striking two-mile form from early in his juvenile hurdling campaign last season, namely finishing a neck second to Buzz (now rated 152) at Taunton before winning a Grade Two from Night Edition at Cheltenham on Trials Day.
He was ultimately well held at a big price in the Fred Winter at the Festival and hasn’t troubled the judge in a couple of outings in France this time around either, but he’s another from the yard creeping into the day under most radars.
As chasing debuts go this a daunting task against impressive Sandown winner Alnadam and the fascinating Mr One More but, as already touched upon, the trainer doesn’t come to this meeting if he doesn’t expect positive results so the signs at home must have been encouraging.
The official mark (134) now sent chasing seems reasonable enough given that early evidence over hurdles and the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies on the day he bids for a King George hat-trick looks pretty significant too (he’s 5-35 for the yard previously and rode this horse a couple times last term).
No four-year-old has won the race previously but only three have tried in the last decade so his age doesn’t put me off much, with the step up in distance to two and a half miles a source possible improvement, if anything.
I was surprised to see his price holding up and he deserves to be backed accordingly.
The big, televised race from Wetherby is the William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase and after Brian Ellison landed last weekend’s Tommy Whittle at Haydock, the trainer looks worth following here with WINDSOR AVENUE (11/1 General).
Brian Hughes is at Kempton for Waiting Patiently so Sean Quinlan – who has gone close on the horse twice in the past – comes in for the ride. Windsor Avenue did blot his copybook somewhat when pulled-up in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham earlier in the month, but he was only a 12/1 shot there which speaks volumes.
Ellison has often referred to the eight-year-old as one of the classiest horses he’s had and it’s not hard to see why with such an impressive strike-rate (6-13) under Rules. He’s only won a couple of times over fences and may have been quite harshly handicapped after sluicing home at Carlisle last November, though his second to Imperial Aura back in Cumbria this autumn showed he was still improving.
That race - the Colin Parker Memorial - is often a really good pointer to major races to come later in the season and the winner has since scored in Grade Two company (Back Op was fourth).
Windsor Avenue was beaten two and a half lengths, getting 4lb, so with Kim Bailey’s horse now rated 163, the selection can definitely do some damage from a perch of 147 if back on song.
I’m happy enough to scrap the last run as he got knocked sideways soon after the off, was always on the back foot and could never get himself into contention.
He’s a lot better than that and is fancied to prove the point on just his second try at three miles over regulation fences, having won a three-mile point-to-point in Ireland as a five-year-old.
Published at 1200 GMT on 24/12/20
Related racing content...
- Cyrname versus Clan Des Obeaux: Ben Linfoot analysis
- Willie Mullins column
- Mark Howard: Best of the rest
- Donn McClean's Festive Five
- Timeform: King George VI Chase preview
- Mike Cattermole: A cracking contest
- Alex Hammond: Liking Lodge in Welsh National
- Catching Pigeons: Gossip & tips from the gallops
- Boxing Day runners & riders
- Timeform: Novices to watch this Christmas
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.