Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on bet365 Gold Cup day, with Neil Mulholland's two runners both backed to play a part in the Sandown feature.
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Recommended bets: Saturday Value Bet
1pt win The Young Master in 3.35 Sandown at 12/1
1pt win Carole's Destrier in 3.35 Sandown at 25/1
1pt win Bertiewhittle in 2.05 Haydock at 16/1
1pt win Lahore in 2.45 Leicester at 7/1
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It has been a tough year for Neil Mulholland with his 2017-18 tally 50 behind what he achieved in the last campaign heading into the final day, but he could well end the season with a bang thanks to a twin assault in the bet365 Gold Cup (3.35).
Staying chasers are his speciality and he wasn’t far off winning the biggest prize in the sphere, the Grand National, when The Druids Nephew fell five out when leading in the year Many Clouds landed Aintree glory.
That horse did give him his sole Cheltenham Festival success, though, and he has enjoyed a small clutch of winners in recent weeks, while Doing Fine ran well in fourth in the Scottish Grand National last weekend.
His other horse in that race, THE YOUNG MASTER, only got as far as the first fence after unseating Sam Waley-Cohen, but he remains incredibly well handicapped and is worth one last chance at 12/1 (Sky Bet, Ladbrokes) to make amends on Saturday.
Jumping has been his Achilles heel, there is no doubt, but he did jump much better two starts ago in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham where it looked as though the wind surgery had helped him turn a corner.
The way he finished off his race at the Festival was encouraging, especially with more stamina-sapping contests in mind, so it was unfortunate to see him unship Waley-Cohen at the very first obstacle in Scotland.
His amateur jockey presumably can’t do the weight of 10 stone this weekend, so Conor Shoemark is drafted in and the good news is he’s won three from four on the horse, while having a healthy 26 per cent strike-rate when riding for Mulholland.
He’s dropped so much in the weights this season, The Young Master has to race from 3lb out of the handicap on Saturday but, even taking that into account, he races off a mark 13lb lower than the one he won this race off two years ago.
Admittedly, he’s a risky proposition. But, considering that good Cheltenham run and the return to the scene of his finest hour, the hope is Shoemark gets him into the kind of rhythm that can see him take advantage of such a lowly rating.
Theatre Guide is 3lb lower than when finishing a close third in this race last year, while more solid propositions include Bigbadjohn, a horse that looked revitalised for the switch to Nigel Twiston-Davies’ when winning on his stable debut at Kempton.
However, the other horse in the race that can give The Young Master a run for his money in the well-handicapped stakes is stablemate CAROLE'S DESTRIER and at 25/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill) he’s also worth getting on side.
Carole’s Destrier has been poor this season, being pulled up twice since finishing eighth in the Ladbrokes Trophy, but to drop 16lb in three runs is pretty drastic and it leaves him 10lb lower than when chasing home Native River in the 2016 Hennessy.
That was just five starts ago and Carole’s Destrier has some good Sandown form as well, winning the 2015 London National over Saturday’s course and distance off an 8lb higher mark.
Mulholland reaches for the first-time cheekpieces in a bid to sharpen him up and he doesn’t have a bad record with the headgear, winning 12 times from 94 goes with first-time sheepskin, a win strike-rate of 13 per cent.
If it does have the required effect Carole’s Destrier is weighted to have a big say and at 25/1 it’s worth chancing Mulholland has worked the magic with him.
There’s a bit of rain forecast at Sandown on Friday but it wouldn’t bother either selection if it got into the ground, while testing conditions look the order of the day at Haydock who host a good seven-race card on the Flat.
The feature race of the afternoon is the Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap (2.05) and Mjjack looks a worthy favourite following a convincing win at Newmarket’s Craven Meeting.
He could well defy a 6lb rise in the weights on ideal conditions but he looks short enough at 3/1 in a competitive race and it could be worth chancing the veteran BERTIEWHITTLE at 16/1 (General) as he looks the pick of the prices.
The 10-year-old has a win strike-rate of six wins from 88 career runs, so he’s hardly prolific, and he’s always vulnerable to an improver, but he’s a pretty reliable operator when everything is in his favour and that certainly looks to be the case this weekend.
He needs to come off a strong gallop, over seven furlongs, on a galloping track, when there is cut in the ground and with Lualiwa, Calder Prince, Robero and Medieval in the field he might well get the race run to suit.
The trip is perfect and so is Haydock. He was fourth in this very race two years ago off a similar mark, staying on well in the closing stages despite not getting the gallop or the ground he needs, and he loves these flat, galloping courses (also goes very well at Doncaster).
Soft ground, which he’ll get on Saturday, is crucial. His career form figures on the surface are 1-7-6-1-5-2-3 and that latest third came at Doncaster last November in a 19-runner field where he stayed on well to land the bronze medal.
He didn’t get the strong gallop he needs on his seasonal reappearance at Thirsk last week, Kimberella doing the field for speed off the front end, but he shaped quite nicely in the circumstances and he should come on for the run.
Finally, LAHORE is worth a bet at 7/1 (General) in the totepool EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes at Leicester.
Rated 99, he has plenty to find on official ratings but it’s perhaps significant that his new trainer Clive Cox is prepared to forego the handicap option with a horse that promised plenty as a three-year-old.
He lost a shoe when finishing third to Jallota at Redcar on his final start last year, but that wasn’t a bad effort on just his fifth career run and he can take another big step forward back on soft ground.
At Doncaster last September he absolutely bolted up in testing conditions in a handicap off a mark of 86 and well beaten in sixth that day was subsequent Spring Mile winner High Acclaim.
Silvestre de Sousa is two from three on the horse, he has a 30 per cent strike-rate when riding for Cox and this testing seven should be no problem for a colt that is bred to stay a mile.
Posted at 1700 BST on 27/04/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +372.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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