Athmad looks a big price at Newmarket
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for Newmarket and Haydock on Saturday
By Ben Linfoot
Horse Racing
Sat June 08, 2019 · 5y ago
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot tipped the Derby winner in his Value Bet column last weekend and he has three horses on his radar for Haydock and Newmarket on Saturday.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, June 7
1pt win Paradise Boy in the 1.45 Haydock at 9/1
1pt win Athmad in the 2.10 Newmarket at 25/1
1pt e.w Ashington in the 2.45 Newmarket at 20/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
With plenty of rain around on Friday and more forecast to fall on Saturday, soft ground has got even softer at Haydock and there is likely to be a significant easing of conditions at Newmarket, as well.
In the Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock the weather isn't likely to bother the thriving Safe Voyage who has won in testing ground a couple of times, while his closest market rival, Sir Dancealot, probably wants it much faster.
Earlier on the card the Listed Betway Achilles Stakes market could well be dominated by Stake Acclaim and Danzeno, who both put up big performances on the back of long absences last time.
Stake Acclaim won on soft ground at Newbury on the back of a 517-day break, while on Sunday Danzeno bolted up at Nottingham after 313 days off the track.
If either can match those pieces of form they’ll probably win, but it’s not a given and that brings Intense Romance into things given her preference for testing ground.
The best bet on the card, though, is PARADISE BOY at 9/1 (General) in the opening Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap at 1.45.
Andrew Balding’s string remain in fine form and he looks to have waited for the right opportunity with this horse for his turf debut.
It could be notable that he tackles soft ground for his first run on grass, as he’s related to German soft ground winners, and the form of his latest Wolverhampton second has worked out well.
The third, Gantier, who reopposes here off 7lb worse terms, has won subsequently, as has the last home Patchouli.
Off a lowly mark of 77 he looks well treated for Balding and David Probert, who combine well in Haydock handicaps (six wins from 28 at 21.43 per cent).
Over at Newmarket it’s the first Saturday meeting on the July Course and it kicks off with a couple of good handicaps to get stuck into.
The stalls on the straight course are on the stands’ side which could be significant in the opening Bentley Cambridge Handicap over seven furlongs.
Flashcard and Awe look the most likely winners in this and they could be drawn well in stalls three and five respectively, close to the stands’ rail.
However, the one that I’m most interested in at the prices is Brian Meehan’s ATHMAD who looks hugely underestimated at 25/1 (BetVictor, Coral, 20s General).
This son of Olympic Glory absolutely bolted up on his racecourse debut last season, so we know he can go well fresh (he’s had 224 days off) and that form has worked out really well.
The second, Cap Francais, is now rated 103 and the third, Fox Power, is now rated 102, and they were both soundly beaten by Athmad who makes his handicap debut off 94 this weekend.
He was far from disgraced in a Listed race at Doncaster on his second start, where he was beaten five lengths by Sangarius, and then after that he was below form in the Horris Hill at Newbury on his only subsequent run.
However, he could well be a different proposition in handicaps now he’s been gelded and Meehan has a good record with this type of horse.
Meehan and Dwyer teamed up to win the Victoria Cup with 25/1 chance Swift Gift on his first run since being gelded, while Manassas won the Spring Mile on his first start since being gelded, too.
Petrus repeated the feat at Doncaster this season and those three horses contribute to 10 winners from 79 at 13 per cent when it comes to Meehan running newly-gelded horses in handicaps.
It shows he can get one ready and if this horse can bag the stands’ rail from stall two under Dwyer he could take some stopping.
Interestingly, it had rained the day prior to his debut at Newbury before a drying day produced what jockeys described as ‘gluey conditions’, a scenario that’s not out of the question on Saturday.
Finally, ASHINGTON looks a big price at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Boylesports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) in the Bernard Sunley Memorial Handicap over 1m6f (2.45).
The four-year-old’s best run for Luca Cumani was his final one last season, where he was second over the extended 1m5f at Chelmsford off a mark of 88.
That run suggests 1m6f is his ideal trip and after a lifeless first run for new trainer John Quinn at Newcastle in April he came forward a great deal last time at Hamilton.
A close-up fifth over a mile-and-a-half in a first-time visor in Scotland, he was outpaced late on but looked to be running on again at the line, hinting he’ll improve for another quarter of a mile.
Back down to 88 after that latest outing, he looks fairly treated and he’s won on the July Course at Newmarket before thanks to a comfortable success at a lower level a year ago.
Quinn doesn’t have a bad record in July Course handicaps, winning six from 43 at 14 per cent, while Tom Marquand, a good jockey booking, should be able to sit prominently off Red Galileo and, perhaps, one or two others.
With several bookies going five places he’s worth an each-way bet, even if softer ground is a bit of an unknown.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +338.09pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 07/06/19.