Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day four of the Ebor Festival at York

Recommended bets, Saturday August 22

1pt win Beringer in 1.50 York at 16/1

1pt win Eastern Sheriff in 2.25 York at 20/1

1pt win Raaeq in 3.15 Sandown at 8/1

1pt win Alright Sunshine in 3.40 York at 25/1

1pt win Cockalorum in 4.40 York at 16/1

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Trainer Keith Dalgleish may have struck some form at the perfect time ahead of ALRIGHT SUNSHINE’s bid for glory in the Sky Bet Ebor at York on Saturday.

Dalgleish was 0-33 in the fortnight prior to Thursday’s racing but will have taken great heart from Amber Storm landing the concluding fillies’ handicap on the Knavesmire, a welcome winner that appeared to be coming after Soldier's Minute (22/1) and Broxi (28/1) had been placed for the yard at York earlier in the week.

The Ebor has been Alright Sunshine’s major target since he went through the handicap ranks on the Flat last season, the sort of progression that didn’t come as a great surprise - to northern observers at least - after he’d started to make a name for himself in bumpers with three wins from four starts on the National Hunt scene.

And while unable to add to his tally so far in 2020, he’s shown more than enough in two public appearances to suggest he’s well up to the task when things fall his way.

Connections clearly could have done without the 4lb rise in the weights after he finished a never-nearer, staying-on fifth to Nayef Road in the rearranged Group Three Sagaro Stakes at Newcastle on the first Saturday after resumption – his previous rating of 101 would ultimately have got him in at York quite comfortably – but that wasn’t to be known at the time, and he’s since been given 1lb back after running at Royal Ascot.

He could only muster a mid-pack finish there in the Copper Horse Handicap won by Ebor favourite Fujaira Prince, but that doesn’t do him justice as nothing went right after being squeezed for room on the first turn out of the home straight which comes up really quickly over the mile and three-quarters at Ascot.

The scrimmaging seemed to light him up as he pulled for his head and was then hampered down the back before getting no kind of run at all up the home straight.

Fujaira Prince, conversely, was in the box seat the whole way, enjoying a dream run and kicking clear at will once turning in. The dashing grey was visually very impressive, but the eye was drawn to Alright Sunshine, who eventually came home in his own time for a well-held eighth.

It’s interesting that both horses have effectively kept their powder dry since, coming here fresh after the 66-day break since the Royal meeting, and while only one subsequent winner has emerged from that race in the intervening period, a few have performed with credit in equally strong company and I’m content to trust the overall quality of the form.

With Fujaira Prince hit hard by the handicapper as a result of his three and three quarter-length success, Alright Sunshine is a full 10lb better off and, at the prices, I’m really keen to see if he can turn the tables.

Tactically, the typically strong-travelling selection is going to need some luck passing horses late, but York’s sweeping turns and long home straight will play more to his strengths than Ascot where it can get pretty cramped on the bends, while the likes of Dash Of Spice and Hochfeld being drawn low should ensure they go a good gallop in the early stages.

Verdana Blue looks the horse to fear most and if York manages to avoid many more of the rather sporadic rain showers which hit quite sharply on Friday, then Nicky Henderson’s Grade One-winning hurdler could be the new market leader come the off.

It’s tempting to back her too, having just had her stamina stretched in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles when last seen, as she’s clearly still well handicapped on the Flat (raised 2lb), but she’s already shortened in the market through Friday afternoon and any more rain would surely tip things against her again.

The three-year-olds get a shot over the same course and distance in the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap earlier on the card and last year’s winning trainer William Haggas has warm order Favorite Moon heading a team of two along with A Star Above, who looked a shade unlucky when second to Mambo Nights at Goodwood.

Favorite Moon has started out life in handicaps on a manageable mark, to say the least, and going up 7lb for beating Subjectivist at Haydock on July 5 won’t stop him winning more races.

The only reservation I have with him – other than the relatively skinny price – is that he’s quite clearly an out-and-out stayer and if he’s going to be beaten then it might just be by something with a touch more innate class.

Take nothing away from him, but in terms of the opposition I’m looking above the favourite in the weights, rather than below – where the likes of Bodyline, Coltrane and King’s Charisma are all going to prove quite popular – and the one higher up that stands out as being potentially over-priced is EASTERN SHERIFF.

The two negatives that must initially be addressed are the stable form and his complete no-show when last of six behind a couple of these rivals at Newmarket’s July Festival.

Hugo Palmer has been in-and-out since racing resumed, saddling 11 winners in total and only one so far in August (prior to Combine’s run at Wolverhampton on Friday night), but the fact that this horse has contributed two of those victories speaks volumes for his ability and the yard’s lean spell appears to be factored into the price.

As for the July Course blowout, it’s hard to brush under the carpet, although he was slowly away and sat last early off a slow gallop, something that seemed to blight a whole host of hold-up performers throughout that meeting.

He didn’t pick up at all when asked and was obviously under the weather or feeling something, but has since consigned that effort to the past with a taking win at Ayr stepped up to a mile and five furlongs and fitted with cheekpieces for the first time.

Seemingly all dressed up with nowhere to go two and a half furlongs out, he eventually got some running room and stayed on powerfully for Kevin Stott to nail front-runner Sociologist late on, a performance that resulted in him going up 8lb in the weights.

That might appear harsh given the beaten horses haven’t done a mass amount to frank the form subsequently, but Eastern Sheriff was the best horse in the race by miles.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s progressing into a really smart colt – he’s a full brother to the St Leger winner Harbour Law, while his half-brother Moheet ran in Golden Horn’s Derby. Palmer is also on record back in April suggesting he could become an “international stayer” for the yard in the future – and that stable tour was reported after Eastern Sheriff had had just the one run as a juvenile, when beating four subsequent winners in a Kempton novice in November.

So he’s always been considered a class act in the making, he’s going to handle the conditions whatever the weather, and he looks absolutely made for a race where he can arrive late off a strong gallop.

Eight of the past nine Melrose winners have been held up through the early stages (Ghostwatch was prominent throughout in 2018) and there should be a good pace on again this time with Grand Bazaar expected to be pressed by Wise Glory, Mambo Nights and possibly Dancing Approach and Punctuation too.

Brian Meehan’s Arthurian Fable was another to make the shortlist as he obviously improve for this trip last time, but at a bigger price I’m happy with the one dart on Eastern Sheriff who has the cheekpieces retained and Stott (1-2 for Palmer overall) for company in the saddle once more.

BERINGER is too big a price at 16/1 in the opening Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes, despite being the only York fancy on the day that wouldn't really want the ground getting any worse than good to soft.

It’s a typical-looking Group Three for milers in that you have Lord Glitters and Zabeel Prince, who may not be quite as capable as they once were, combined with converted handicappers such as Certain Lad, Pogo and Dark Vision.

Dark Vision is a fascinating one as he’s clearly got his mojo back this term with a string of excellent efforts, including when winning the Listed Sky Bet Pomfret Stakes at Pontefract last month.

His earlier Royal Ascot and Sandown efforts have been well advertised by Montatham this week so it’s strong form all year, but on the Pontefract run then he’s only marginally superior to Alan King’s runner-up.

It was a messy race, granted, and perhaps Dark Vision’s wayward route meant he wasn’t able to show just how good he was, but he clearly didn’t do Beringer any favours either and there was only a neck in it at the line as the second finished so strongly.

Throw in the fact it was Beringer’s first run of the campaign, without the cheekpieces which helped him last year and are now re-fitted, and it’s surely a run that can be marked up.

King stated he was ultimately a bit disappointed to be second in last year’s Cambridgeshire but there was no shame in that effort either, picked up late and beaten three-quarters of a length by this year’s Group One Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner Lord North.

Beringer still has more to find on official ratings with a few of these but autumn plans to go hurdling have clearly been shelved and he looks perfectly capable of bridging the gap to Pattern company this time around. And this race offers the perfect opportunity in which to do so.

With One Master very hard to oppose in the Group Two Sky Bet City Of York Stakes, the other race to focus on at York is the big, 10-furlong Sky Bet Handicap which isn’t on terrestrial TV but shouldn’t be overlooked.

John Smith’s Cup winner Sinjaari and Glorious Goodwood scorer Maydanny look like fighting it out at the top of the market and each have their merits, but there’s a considerable weight range in this race and it could be worth chancing something further down the handicap.

Roger Fell has been unusually quiet lately but his horses see plenty of action and can come back into form quite quickly, something we’ve seen with COCKALORUM in the past.

He bounced back from two unplaced efforts to be second in a 19-runner handicap over this course last October and he backed that up with more good efforts in defeat at Newmarket in November, and again on his Newcastle comeback on June 2 this year.

Things have gone awry since but there have been reasonable excuses – he was outclassed in Listed company at Royal Ascot, found a mile and a half beyond him here next time, and then got caught out in a slowly-run event back on the Tapeta at Newcastle last time.

He's slipped in the ratings as a result of those efforts and is now 1lb lower than the aforementioned second at this track. A current mark of 86 is still 8lb higher than when last successful but he bolted up that day at Ripon last July and looks just the sort of lurker who can upset the big guns if back on top form this weekend.

There are four ITV races from Sandown as well but the only one I’m betting in is the Play 4 To Win At Betway Handicap, where the value looks to be at the top of the market – at the time of writing at least.

Matthew Flinders, still green when winning at Doncaster second time out (jumped the winning line), looks on a fair mark having lost little in defeat when trying to give Roberto Escobarr 7lb at York last month and an initial mark of 90 after three quick runs since racing resumed might be well within range as he drops to a mile for the first time in his life.

But if there’s a horse capable of blowing this field apart it could be Brian Meehan’s RAAEQ.

He was a non-runner due to the bottomless ground in the Horris Hill on what was supposed to be his final start at two - so it’s hoped the forecast is right and Sandown doesn’t get rain of any real significance - having landed a Newbury novice from Establish on his second start.

The runner-up gives a pretty clear indication that Raaeq is well in off 89 as Roger Varian’s horse has won twice this term and now commands a rating of 93, and he’s just one of four subsequent winners (six races in total) to emerge from that warm race.

It’s always been a good novice event, won by the likes of Tabarrak, Swiss Storm and King Ottokar in the past, and Raeeq looked good value for his half-length success. It wasn’t a surprise win either, the 11/8 favourite delivering on a really promising debut second at Salisbury, a race that also threw up seven future winners (excluding him).

Meehan was talking in glowing terms about the son of Kingman after his Newbury triumph and while fitness has to be taken on trust after 336 days off, the yard is in great shape with three winners from just 10 runners during the past fortnight.

He’s 8/1 and could easily be half that come the off.

Posted at 1600 BST on 21/08/20

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