Matt Brocklebank's Dee Stakes tip El Drama won at 12/1 - he's got one more selection on day two of the May Festival at Chester.
Racing betting tips: Thursday May 6
1pt win Corinthia Knight in 1.45 Chester at 10/1 (General)
1pt win El Drama in 2.15 Chester at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Bakersboy in 2.45 Chester at 14/1 (Hills) - NR
1pt win Snow Ocean in 3.45 Chester at 14/1 (bet365)
Thursday’s tote+ Biggest Dividends At tote.co.uk Dee Stakes is an appealing race on several fronts but, above all, it looks a great race in which to have a bet.
It’s been a pretty kind contest for punters over the years and the last three market leaders have obliged to make it seven winning favourites (or joint-favourites) from the 10 most recent runnings. But there have been 11/1 and 12/1 exceptions during that period too and hopefully we could see something similar to the 2015 edition when a then 93-rated Not So Sleepy beat rivals rated 106, 99 and 109.
Rushing headlong into short-priced three-year-olds based on official ratings can be a really risky business at this stage of the season and there appear obvious reasons to oppose the two with the flashy marks in this year’s Dee Stakes field.
Ontario (109) is entitled to come on for his Free Handicap comeback, and I suspect it was a well up-to-scratch renewal of the Newmarket race, but he was becoming something of a weak finisher last year and, despite everything we know about his sire Galileo and his trainer Aidan O'Brien, I can’t contemplate backing him moving from seven furlongs up to a mile and a quarter even on a sharp track.
Yibir is all set to top the betting and he may well live up to his mark (107) at some stage this season. However, he definitely lacks a gear to be a top-level performer around this sort of trip and, having worn a hood on debut last June, I don’t like the fact he’s now tried in cheekpieces after his Classic Trial third at Sandown.
The most likely winner could well be Sir Michael Stoute’s recent Newbury runner-up Maximal but there are three fascinating colts at even bigger prices than him and, at the odds, EL DRAMA is preferred to Foxes Tales and Earlswood, both of whom are bred for this place being a half-brother to 2019 Dee third Fox Chairman, and a full-brother to 2019 Chester Cup winner Making Miracles, respectively.
That pair have significant potential stepping up to 10 furlongs for the first time but the same is true of the Roger Varian-trained El Drama, who has a fantastic middle-distance pedigree being a half-brother to 2014 Oaks third Volume, among other smart three-year-old performers.
The son of Lope De Vega looks a very uncomplicated ride and landed short odds in a back-end Doncaster maiden on soft ground when making his debut in October. The strength of that race isn’t special but three winners have emerged from it (winning four races between them) and El Drama has shown progressive form himself, without being ideally suited by the way the races have unfolded, in two all-weather outings this time around.
He wasn’t seen to best effect off a slow tempo and a sprint finish in the Listed race won by Apollo One at Lingfield in early-March and was seemingly caught too wide without any cover when ultimately going down narrowly in a decent, small-field conditions race at Kempton last month.
Entered in the Dante and the Derby, he could really thrive back on turf over this longer distance and he’ll be fine with the conditions no matter how much rain arrives.
David Evans won the last running of the Destination 2 Handicap with a horse defying a wide draw on his second turf start of the year and the trainer might be able to pull off a similar trick with SNOW OCEAN.
He’s got his quirks and still seems to race too keenly for his own good most of the time, despite being quite an experienced five-year-old, but it doesn’t hold him back when he’s in the mood and it’s probably quite significant he’s done his winning on grass at idiosyncratic tracks that appear to keep him interested – namely Goodwood and Chester.
He has a perfect 2-2 record to protect here following a couple of course and distances victories which sandwiched a Goodwood success as he recorded a hat-trick last August/September, and it almost goes without saying this year’s May meeting will likely have been in connections’ minds ever since.
To that end, he’s had a perfect time prepping for this fixture, keeping his fitness up with some reasonable runs on the all-weather before a not-disgraceful, mid-pack finish back on turf at Newbury just 18 days ago.
Mr Top Hat – the same stable’s aforementioned winner of this race in 2019 – enjoyed a spin at Bath (finished fifth) 20 days in advance of the Chester win having been second here the previous September, and he was dropped 2lb for the Bath run.
Snow Ocean has been eased 1lb since his Newbury appearance which leaves him just 3lb higher than when bolting up here on September 27, and 1lb lower than when subsequently second – beaten a length – at Nottingham the following month.
James Doyle has been booked for the ride which can only be deemed a plus and, with respect to Sarvan and the well-treated all-weather specialist Lucky’s Dream, prices of 12/1 and bigger look to underestimate him.
Earlier on the card, CORINTHIA KNIGHT is worth chancing on the ground in the Satchell Moran Solicitors Business Interruption Claims Handicap.
He’d clearly be a few points shorter if we were looking at quicker ground but they may be able to get this race in before the worst of the day’s weather approaches (sharp showers due later in the afternoon into the evening).
Archie Watson’s well-travelled six-year-old is just too well-treated to ignore from a mark of 92 and hung in there much longer than expected when third to Raaeb over six furlongs on his seasonal return at Chelmsford last month.
The winner failed to defy his 3lb higher mark at Newmarket on Saturday but fourth, Mountain Brave, came out to win at Doncaster off the same mark the same afternoon and it looked a pretty fair 0-95 all-weather heat at the time.
Corinthia Knight is a bone fide, point-and-shoot Chester type and it’s slightly surprising he’s only been here once before (fourth in Listed company in 2018) but Hollie Doyle gets on really well with him, the return to five furlongs is a positive, and from stall five he should be able to get out and track likely front-runner Jabbarockie who is perfectly draw down on the inside.
Tom Dascombe's BAKERSBOY might just relish the conditions on his turf debut in the Deepbridge Estate Planning Service Handicap.
His half-brother Kachy was happier on rattling-fast ground when plying his trade on turf but the dam has also produced heavy-ground winner Gifted Ruler and Bakersboy really picks his feet up in the manner of a horse who will handle some cut.
He’s far from thrown in off a mark of 89 on handicap debut at first glance, but he went into last month’s 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes on Finals Day at Lingfield rated 91 and you can essentially toss that effort in terms of meaningful form as he got no run at all and lost two shoes after mid-race scrimmaging.
He’s better judged on his running-on fifth – when again denied a clear passage – behind Victory Heights at Wolverhampton in early-December, a race that has worked out really well since.
Bakersboy finished on the heels of Yazaman there off level weights and he’s in receipt of 2lb from William Haggas’s horse on Thursday, while he’s seemingly going to really enjoy the return to this trip having shown up well over seven furlongs on his first two public appearances at Wolverhampton.
Published at 1600 BST on 05/05/21
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