Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for John Smith's Cup day at York

Recommended bets, Saturday July 18

1pt win Harrovian in 2.30 York at 9/1

1pt win Sinjari in 2.30 York at 14/1

1pt win Moss Gill in 3.05 York at 8/1

1pt win Lady G in 3.25 Newbury at 16/1

1pt win Sandret in 3.40 York at 10/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

It’s a strong edition of the John Smith’s Cup in spite of the expected hit to prize money, with 14 of the line-up boasting triple-figure handicap marks, eight of which being four-year-olds with scope for significant further improvement.

The past two winners, Pivoine and Euchen Glen, are back for another bite at the cherry and half a dozen last-time out scorers help give the race an ultra-competitive edge.

I argued at the start of the week that HARROVIAN (9/1, General) could be about to sprout metaphorical wings having been gelded over the winter and, with Frankie Dettori confirmed for the ride on Thursday morning, there’s little to put me off topping up the antepost position with another win bet, at just a point shorter, on John Gosden’s horse.

He was value for more than the winning margin when beating Archie Perkins at Doncaster, for which he’s only gone up 6lb, and the cheekpieces which returned on Town Moor are understandably retained. Drying ground through the week and a guaranteed strong pace will both also play to his strengths.

He’s still got a way to go but it’s not hard to see him emulating the same connections’ Lord North over the next 12 months and he remains a backable price to give his trainer a first success in the big York feature.

The race has been a happy hunting ground for some of Newmarket’s other major trainers in the past decade and recent winners Sir Michael Stoute and Roger Varian are both well represented by Solid Stone and Fifth Position respectively.

But the one horse I really fear is SINJAARI for fellow HQ resident - and Yorkshire-born - William Haggas, who has taken top spot in this event twice before with horses rated in the 90s.

Unlike Haggas’s previous scorers, Sinjaari comes here fresh without a run earlier in the year, and it appears he hasn’t been the easiest to train.

However, when he was right he was capable of seriously good form as a three-year-old and it’s worth chancing he, too, can now really kick on at four after a winter gelding operation.

Once-raced at two for Ed Dunlop, last year started really well for him when just denied by Private Secretary – who won his next two including at Listed level – before winning a Windsor maiden and then going down a short-head to Headman in the valuable London Gold Cup at Newbury.

Perhaps that race took enough out of him as he failed to add to his tally in four more 2019 starts, but he was placed a couple of times and it was pretty telling that he was sent off 7/4 favourite from a mark of 97 on one occasion.

Here was a horse that was obviously frustrating Haggas and gelding him was probably inevitable, although if you boil it down his form figures over 10 furlongs on good ground read 2123, so maybe running over a mile and a half on easy ground in the autumn wasn’t the right move in hindsight.

Eased another 1lb to 95 since we last saw him at Newmarket in October, he’s got his perfect conditions this weekend, on top of a handy draw in stall seven, with Stevie Donohoe coming in for the lightweight ride (1-8 for the trainer overall).

Fitness is rarely an issue after a winter break nowadays, especially for the top trainers, and there won’t be many excuses given the yard is now clearly flying.

First time out might just be the time we should be catching him.

Elsewhere on the card, the John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes is about as trappy as they come, especially with the small matter of the Sky Bet Ebor on the horizon, but I’m keen to have a pop at El Astronaute and Equilateral, who have penalties to concede in a tightly-knit Listed John Smith’s City Walls Stakes.

Six of the nine-runner field are previous course winners including returning Nunthorpe hero Alpha Delphini, but Que Amoro and MOSS GILL are the pair to focus on. They both made good strides through the handicap ranks last term and have evidently picked up where they left off.

Moss Gill was put in his place by Michael Dods’ filly over this course and distance in August but went on to post a much-improved effort when bolting up off a mark of 90 on October 11, and his Wolverhampton win before the lockdown proved he’d stepped up again this time around.

I can excuse him a three-length sixth in a warm renewal of the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket since as he was squeezed for room at a key moment and he’ll love the return to York, where he’s posted a win and two seconds from three previous visits.

All ground comes alike to the son of No Nay Never and he’s definitely the one I want on side at the prices.

SANDRET might be seen over hurdles in the fullness of time but more success on the level could precede that move and he’s worth a bet on ground that should really suit in the William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap.

Ben Haslam’s horse is yet to win a Flat handicap but his general profile on turf is really encouraging and he stayed on well to win a Classified Stakes over a mile and a quarter on fast ground at Doncaster in September.

He’s been a non-runner three times already this year (two self-certificates and unsuitably soft going here last time) but does have the benefit a pipe-opener at Ayr where he was slowly away and couldn’t get into it from off the pace.

A step up to 12 furlongs promises to bring out further improvement and his jockey Paul Mulrennan can seemingly do little wrong at York this year (2-3 at the first meeting), or anywhere else for that matter.

There’s quality racing through the evening from Haydock and the Curragh but I can’t find anything particularly appealing on either card and I’ll stick to the ITV4 races in the afternoon.

Newbury’s action is centred around the Group Three bet365 Hackwood Stakes and all eyes on eight-year-old The Tin Man, who drops in class from the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot.

It’s been a good few weeks for the elder statesmen of this division with Caspian Prince and Judicial bagging nice prizes and he’ll be fancied to get back to winning ways.

Judicial is also towards the top of the market again despite having to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his Chipchase win, but the forgotten horse might be Keystroke, another eight-year-old who was third in this race last year.

He’s a big price on account of two lifeless runs so far this term, including in the Chipchase, and trainer Stuart Williams is still a little quiet at present.

Keystroke may be relatively long in the tooth but has had just seven six-furlong starts on turf in his life, winning one and placing twice, and maybe the headgear switch (cheekpieces back on) could just rekindle something positive.

Nicking some place money again realistically looks the best he can hope for, though, and I’m loathe to recommend backing one each-way – effectively doubling our stakes – when I don’t honestly feel he has a clear shot of winning.

I’d much rather have a win bet on LADY G in the bet365 Aphrodite Stakes.

We’ve seen some surprising results in this event - rearranged from its typical home at Newmarket - over the years with relatively lowly-rated fillies turning over horses with much stronger form in the book.

Worth Waiting (89), God Given (79), Forever Popular (84) and Noble Protector (90) have all won it from rivals rated in the 100s and high-90s, and it’s noteworthy Forever Popular was trained by Haggas, who sends the 80-rated maiden Lady G into battle this year.

She clearly has a lot on her plate being the lowest-rated in the field, and by some way, but she’s not yet had the chance to expose her talents and what we have seen from her is pretty encouraging.

She was shorter in the betting when fourth to stablemate Domino Darling in a hot Doncaster maiden on deep ground last season and went down half a length at Yarmouth over 10 furlongs on her comeback.

Three came clear of the rest and the second has since bolted up in a Kempton novice, while the winner has won a fillies’ handicap at Newbury, so the bare form is strong.

Lady G was caught for speed briefly that day but this event, given its greater strength in depth, should produce a more even tempo and stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time could unlock untapped potential in the daughter of Golden Horn.

Her half-sister Raise You won a Listed race at the first attempt, on just her third start, too so, at the prices, there’s enough going for her to overlook the fact it initially looks a daunting task on paper.

Posted at 1530 BST on 17/07/20

Click here for the full Value Bet record

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.