Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Royal Ascot day two tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Royal Ascot Day Two

1pt win Winning Ways in 2.30 Ascot at 16/1

1pt win Formidable Kitt in 3.05 Ascot at 18/1

1pt e.w Gm Hopkins in 5.00 Ascot at 33/1

1pt win Tisbutadream in 5.35 Ascot at 25/1

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It’s a huge day for John Gosden on day two of Royal Ascot as he’s all set to saddle up three of his biggest guns of the week in the shape of Jack Hobbs, Laugh Aloud and Daban. 

There’s the potential for a Ballydoyle-Godolphin ding-dong battle of old in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes with Jack Hobbs taking on Coolmore’s Highland Reel, although both would probably prefer the race to be over a mile and a half.

They set the standard in the race, but if the trip does catch them both out it looks wide open, with perhaps Sir Michael Stoute’s Ulysses the most likely to take advantage.

It looks a race to watch and enjoy rather than have a punt in, though, and the same can be said in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes where it’s very difficult to see past hot favourite Laugh Aloud.

Gosden’s Godolphin filly was in a different league to her rivals in Group Three company at Epsom last time and she looks destined for a crack at the very top level on that evidence. 

This Group Two looks the ideal stepping stone and quotes of 5/2 and 11/4 are perfectly understandable, even with some tough opponents like Qemah and Usherette up against her.

With 1000 Guineas third Daban heading a trio of Gosden-trained hopefuls in the opening Jersey Stakes, the Clarehaven handler could conceivably head into the Royal Hunt Cup on the back of two or even three winners.

If any Gosden multiples are racking up by five ‘o’ clock fans of the trainer have a tough choice in the Hunt Cup as he runs four in one of the week’s biggest handicaps; Tashweeq, Remarkable, GM HOPKINS and Castle Harbour.

Gm Hopkins is the one that stands out for me at 33/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4,5) and he is aiming to become just the second dual winner of this contest in the race’s history after Master Vote, a horse that won it twice in a row 70 years ago.

Clearly, it’s a tough task, but he’s still only six and the handicapper has given him a real chance by dropping him to a mark of 105, which is just 2lb higher than the rating he ran off when winning the race in 2015.

He went up to 109 after that and hit 114 at one point, but he largely struggled out of handicap company and didn’t really cut it when stepped up in trip to 10 furlongs.

Such failed experiments have seen his mark drop back to a dangerous level, though, and it’s telling that even since his Hunt Cup victory his best efforts have come on the straight mile at Ascot.

The October after his Hunt Cup win he was second on Champions Day at Ascot in the Balmoral Handicap, running on well to be runner-up off a mark of 109, while he won on his seasonal return the following April in a Listed contest over the same course and distance.

He was beaten over nine lengths in soft ground in last year’s Hunt Cup, but that was off a mark of 112 and he should be much more competitive off half a stone lower now.

Last time out he was 17th in the Victoria Cup also at Ascot, but that was his seasonal reappearance and in all likelihood a preparation for this race. 

It came 39 days ago – he had 32 days off before his last Hunt Cup win – and over a trip too short as well (he’d never previously raced over seven furlongs at all in his entire career, having done most of his running over a mile and further).

On top of this he lost ground after rearing badly at the start, so to run on and be beaten 10 lengths, dropping 3lb subsequently in the process, it was very much job done with another Hunt Cup challenge in mind.

On Wednesday he’s got all his vital ingredients to go well again. His handicap mark, the fast ground, the strongly-run straight mile at his favourite track. The icing on the cake is the likely pace, as all the ‘on paper’ frontrunners are drawn around him amongst the high numbers on the stands’ side (Gm Hopkins is drawn in 29 with pace coming from GK Chesterton in 19, Early Morning in 21, Zhui Feng in 26, Tabarrak in 30 and Battle Of Marathon in 33).

James Doyle rides the straight track well and he could get a lovely tow into things from the aforementioned horses. At 33/1, Gm Hopkins looks a good bit of value to make his own little bit of Hunt Cup history and he’s worth an each-way bet.

I did mull over putting up Ballet Concerto as well, but he’s been backed since Ryan Moore was confirmed for him and I am a bit worried about his draw in 11 considering the pace seems to be dominated by those drawn towards the stands’ side.

With that in mind I’ll rely on Gm Hopkins in the Hunt Cup and concentrate on a few other races for the day’s other bets starting with Jeremy Noseda’s WINNING WAYS (General 16/1) in the Jersey Stakes. 

I like the betting shape to this race as the form horses, Le Brivido and Dream Castle, look worth taking on for different reasons.

Dream Castle ran well in the Guineas in a first-time hood, but he was keen again just as he had been in the Greenham before that. He has to settle better if he’s going to win this.

Le Brivido, meanwhile, brings the best form into the race on account of his French 2000 Guineas second, but that came on soft ground and he has to prove himself on very different conditions on Wednesday.

Those two unsurprisingly dominate the market, but I’m happy to take them on with the above in mind and it’s Winning Ways that makes most appeal from those at bigger prices.

Noseda has won this race a couple of times before including with a similar type in Just James in 2002 who also progressed in handicaps before winning the Jersey.

Winning Ways is stepping out of handicap company himself, but he might just be capable of bridging the gap judging by the manner of his latest success and the way it has worked out.

It came at Ascot on May 12 and he won easily, scooting clear by almost four lengths over the seven-furlong trip on fast ground.

He went up 16lb after that to a mark of 101, a rating that still leaves him plenty to find with the market principals in the Jersey. However, there looks to be plenty more to come, and his Ascot handicap form has worked out really well.

The second, Rusumaat, won the Silver Bowl at Haydock next time, the fifth, Khafoo Shememi, won a Listed race at Sandown subsequently and the sixth, Original Choice, was a head second behind Fire Brigade last Wednesday.

After the Jersey Stakes it’s the Queen Mary and Wesley Ward’s Happy Like A Fool is all the rage even at short prices and she’s going to be a key horse on day two.

I’m not in any rush to take her on, but I thought there was just enough juice in FORMIDABLE KITT’S price at 18s (Bet Victor, Coral, 16s General) to roll the dice.

The form of her Newmarket maiden win hasn’t worked out brilliantly by any means, but I was really impressed with how she quickened up to put the race to bed and she looked thoroughly professional as well as at home on the fast ground.

She’s bred to be an early two-year-old as well. Her sire, Invincible Spirit, has had loads of success with speedy juveniles including Shalaa and Zebedee, while her dam, Ceiling Kitty, showed plenty of zip as a two-year-old including when winning this very race in 2012.

That was a landmark success for Tom Dascombe and, bar the Brown Panther story, much of his subsequent high-profile victories have come with two-year-olds.

Formidable Kitt looks another with plenty of speed and at 18s she’s worth taking a chance on, even with the looming shadow of the American raider cast over the market.

Finally, there could be another family connection story in the Sandringham and at 25/1 (General) David Elsworth’s TISBUTADREAM is worth backing to follow in the hoofprints of her half-sister Persuasive who won this race last year.

Tisbutadream has a different profile to that filly, but she has some very solid form for a 25/1 shot.

The winner of all four of her handicaps, all of them over a mile, she won her last race in the grade here at Ascot on May 13 when beating her elders by a length, powering home up the hill.

She’s progressed since then, too, just losing out for second in the run for the line in the Group Three Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom, behind impressive winner Laugh Aloud.

That was also against her elders, so her upward curve is showing no signs of flattening out yet. She runs off an 11lb higher mark than her last handicap win on Wednesday, but, back against her own age group, back at Ascot and back in a handicap, she has plenty in her favour.

With the red-hot Silvestre de Sousa in the saddle as well, there are enough reasons to be backing her at 25s.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +398.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 20/06/17.