Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets from York on Saturday as he tackles two of the handicaps on the Knavesmire.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet
1pt e.w. Justanotherbottle in 3.30 York at 25/1
1pt win Viscount Barfield in 2.20 York at 16/1
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It’s not a bad Saturday of action at all considering there are just three days to go until Royal Ascot and the York handicaps are particularly appealing as we bid to swell the punting coffers ahead of next week.
The feature race on the Knavesmire is the Catherine Kinloch Paver Memorial Macmillan Charity Handicap at 3.30 and Roger Varian’s Ekhtiyaar heads the betting at 4/1.
He went up 5lb for winning in the driving rain at Newmarket last time, just getting the better of Poet’s Princess with Quench Dolly back in third. Slightly hampered when going well a furlong out, Ekhtiyaar was strong at the finish and he landed a bit of a gamble.
That race came on Good to Soft ground, though, and on quicker conditions on a faster track on Saturday he looks more vulnerable than the market would have you believe. He’s progressive and could be the one, but this will be a speed test of the like he’s not faced before.
With that in mind I thought JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE was underestimated at 25/1 (General) and Declan Carroll’s horse is worth an each-way bet.
The Intense Focus gelding is quick and has mainly raced over five furlongs, but the key to him could be the fast ground. He glided over the Good ground when romping home at Nottingham on his seasonal reappearance and I’m convinced he’ll thrive on the quickest conditions he’s faced as a three-year-old.
Caught out by soft ground when well beaten at York two starts ago, he’s worth forgiving that run on account of the conditions and he put it behind him when running a solid third behind two smart prospects at Windsor last time.
That proved he can be competitive off his new mark of 86 and he was well worth his 13lb hike following the earlier Nottingham success. He won by almost five lengths that day, totally outclassing a smart field that included subsequent winners Blitz, Coolfitch, the aforementioned Quench Dolly, Twizzell, Savannah Slew and Jack Flash.
It’s really strong form and he was in a different league that day. Drawn in seven on Saturday, there’s every chance he’ll lead them up the middle of the track and with that five-furlong pace in his locker he could have them all at it from an early stage.
The question is will he stay the six furlongs? It’s an unknown variable with him, but he was second over the distance the only time he’s encountered it (as a juvenile at Redcar) while he’s certainly bred for it and probably a bit further.
This is a hot race again as it nearly always is, but Justanotherbottle is a big horse running off a low weight that could be really dangerous from a prominent position if allowed to get on a roll. With that really strong form of his Nottingham rout in mind, he looks a big price.
Earlier on the card the JCB Handicap at 2.20 is another competitive affair and there should be a good pace on in this with Salateen, Gurkha Friend, Mutawathea and Twin Appeal in the line-up.
If that is the case it will suit Andrew Balding’s VISCOUNT BARFIELD (16/1 generally) as he stays further and relishes a strong gallop.
His best form has come around Chester, but he was caught out wide there last time and raced a tad keenly as a result of his track position.
Beaten just under four lengths by Fastnet Tempest at the line, Viscount Barfield is better than that and we could see it for ourselves on Saturday.
The only time he’s run at York he absolutely flew home for sixth in a 17-runner mile handicap at last August’s Ebor Festival after getting going too late. A strongly-run seven should be ideal for him, though, particularly with his efforts in races that probably weren’t run to suit at Chelmsford this spring in mind.
He’s dropped a couple of pounds this year and off a mark of 90 he’ll be competitive, especially now he should finally have a race run to his liking.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +380.74pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1701 BST on 15/06/17.