Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for day three of Royal Ascot 2019
Ben Linfoot had a great Wednesday with Value Bet winners at 14/1 and 18/1 and he's got five more big-priced tips for day three at Royal Ascot.
Recommended Bets: Royal Ascot, Day Three
1pt win Kick On in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 16/1
1pt win Star Catcher in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 10/1
1pt e.w Aweedram in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 20/1
1pt win Summer Moon in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 20/1
1pt e.w Severance in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 33/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Stradivarius is the star attraction on day three of Royal Ascot as John Gosden’s son of Sea The Stars goes for his seventh consecutive win including back-to-back Gold Cups.
It’s a remarkable sequence after a series of tough races and he’s understandably a 6/5 chance at best. Cross Counter and Dee Ex Bee offer new challenges and either could thrive over this extreme trip, but they will have to improve for it to beat the favourite.
I don’t want to take him on and he could be part of a superb day for Gosden who has excellent chances in every race bar the opener.
His three-year-old middle-distance fillies look out of the top drawer and after he saddled the Investec Oaks winner in Anapurna he runs three in the Ribblesdale including STAR CATCHER at 10/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill, Boylesports).
This lightly-raced three-year-old has only had the three runs and she took a big step forward in her Newbury maiden when hosing up on soft ground before she was third to Queen Power at the same track in a Listed race last time out.
Only beaten half-a-length by Queen Power at Newbury, she could well reverse that form over two furlongs further especially when you consider potential tactics.
Star Catcher is likely to be prominent under Frankie Dettori and if he can nick a few lengths on the turn for home she could be difficult to catch.
She’ll like the ground and the trip should suit, while she’s related to a couple of Royal Ascot winners in Cannock Chase and Pisco Sour as well.
Fleeting sets the standard as the market will tell you, but Star Catcher is proven in the conditions and could well benefit from a(nother) Dettori masterclass on the front end.
Earlier on Gosden’s KICK ON looks underestimated at 16/1 (General) in the Hampton Court Stakes at 3.05.
The son of Charm Spirit was disappointing in the French Derby last time but that was on Good to Firm ground and is the sole reason for his big price as he has a much better chance on his form prior to Chantilly.
A winner of the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, he ran a nice race in the 2000 Guineas when seventh overall and fourth in his group, shaping as though a step up in trip would bring about further improvement.
It still might, especially now he gets significant cut in the ground, as he’s got a knee action that suggests he’ll relish softer conditions and he’s related to a fair few mud lovers.
On his form at Newmarket in the spring he’s not a 16/1 shot and with the recent rain likely to be in his favour I’m prepared to take a chance.
Later on the big betting race of the day is the Britannia Stakes and although you can argue the case for many the one I’m taken with at the odds is AWEEDRAM at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6).
Alan King’s horse has been a massive improver since switching to handicaps this season, winning at Newmarket off 78 and Ascot off 84 before he finished sixth off 92 in the Silver Bowl at Haydock last time out.
He can be keen in his races and he pulled hard at Ascot when winning in May, but he got a good look at the straight course and he’ll enjoy running off a stronger gallop in this bigger field.
That was on soft ground so he’s got no problem with the underfoot conditions and he still looks fairly treated off 92 as he ran a good race in the circumstances at Haydock.
Drawn wide on ground that was probably a touch too fast for him, he raced a little bit too freely and did well to stay on for sixth all things considered.
A straight mile on softer ground off a strong pace looks much more his thing and although regular jockey William Buick is unavailable, King has booked Andrea Atzeni who is building a good record for him (won three from 11 at 27 per cent).
With plenty of pace drawn middle to stands’ side he looks nicely berthed in 20 and he’s the sole pick at a nice each-way price. Shop around for six places - Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are all paying out on those terms.
Finally, I’m taking two against the field in the closing King George V Stakes Handicap starting with SUMMER MOON for last year’s winning trainer Mark Johnston at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power).
Baghdad took this race for Johnston last season having won a 1m4f handicap at York’s Dante meeting and Summer Moon won the very same race in style this campaign.
Up 10lb for that win, Johnston stepped him up to 1m6f at Doncaster last time out and it looked like the trip just caught him out as he led with two furlongs to go before he was reeled in by Durston and Themaxwecan.
The former franked the form with a win at Chester at the weekend, so that is hard evidence that Summer Moon is capable off a mark in the mid-90s and he only went up 2lb for his half-length defeat on Town Moor.
Back over 1m4f he can go well under PJ McDonald from a prominent position, hopefully something he’ll be able to attain from stall three.
A wide draw has turned into a positive on the round course and especially so in this race, with the last eight winners all drawn 10 or wider including a few horses drawn out in 20 and 22.
A starting berth in 15 looks no hindrance to SEVERANCE, then, and at 33/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power) he looks overpriced to win this race for Mick Channon who landed the 2013 renewal with Elidor.
That horse came into this race on the back of finishing eight lengths off the winner in the Lingfield Derby Trial and you can just about say the same about Severance who finished seventh behind subsequent Epsom hero Anthony Van Dyck this season.
He was ridden along early doors to lead that day and that probably didn’t help with his finishing effort, but he can be much more competitive in handicap company off a mark of 92.
This son of Nathaniel shouldn’t mind the ground and he hacked up in Good to Soft conditions at Haydock earlier this season in a race that has worked out well, with the fourth and fifth home, Great Bear and Apparate, both going in since.
If he can settle well in a prominent position under Ronan Whelan he could outrun his odds in a big way.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +377.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 19/06/19.