Ben Linfoot tipped the one-two in Newbury's Spring Cup on Saturday and he's got two Value Bets for Epsom on Wednesday.
Recommended bets: Value Bet
1pt win Permian in 2.45 Epsom at 7/1
1pt win Brorocco in 3.50 Epsom at 8/1
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Epsom’s first meeting of the season on Wednesday always turns attention towards the Investec Derby, as the first of many trials for the June Classic takes place.
Trials season is a great time of the racing year with reputations on the line, but Wednesday’s feature race, the Investec Derby Trial Conditions Stakes, hasn’t lived up to its name with no winner of the main event landing this trial on the way to Derby glory since Blue Peter in 1939.
That hasn’t stopped John Gosden bringing some nice horses to the contest, though, and the Clarehaven handler is going for his fifth win in the last 11 years in the race with impressive Newmarket maiden winner Cracksman.
Gosden’s three-year-olds have been flying in recent weeks and the seasonal bow of this son of Frankel is much anticipated, to the point he’s been inserted here as the odds-on favourite despite having just one run on his C.V.
His Newmarket form hasn’t really been tested by those that finished closest to him, but fourth home, Stradivarius, also trained by Gosden, is two from two since finishing behind his stablemate, including an easy six-length win in a handicap at Beverley a week ago.
There’s clearly some stable confidence factored into his prohibitive odds, then, but this is a tough track to come to for one so inexperienced and his trainer has described him as ‘babyish’ and ‘slow to get there mentally’.
He might be a different gear to these, but I wouldn’t want to be taking a short price to find out and if he is done for experience it could well be Mark Johnston’s PERMIAN that takes advantage.
This Teofilo colt is the most experienced horse in the field with seven runs under his belt and though his three victories came in his first four appearances he’s improved significantly on his last two starts.
His third in the Zetland Stakes last October, admittedly behind a couple of Gosden’s, was a big step forward and he improved on that form on his seasonal reappearance when a neck third giving a stone or more to those around him in a handicap at Bath.
That was a good weight-carrying performance off a mark of 100 and he would’ve won but for hanging in behind the leader in the closing stages. He finished well once he saw daylight and Bath’s configuration isn’t dissimilar to Epsom’s, so the experience should’ve done him good.
He didn’t lead that day as he sat in just behind some stablemates, but he could well go forward on Wednesday and if he gets into a nice rhythm under Franny Norton he could be a tough nut to crack.
It’s safe to say he won’t be winning a Derby, but he could well be up to the task of winning this trial and at 7/1 (General) he’s worth a bet.
Andrew Balding has won the Epsom Derby Trial a couple of times and though he isn’t represented in the race this year his runners are always worth a second look at this meeting.
The Kingsclere trainer always targets the Investec City And Suburban Handicap (3.50) and he’s had a fifth, a third and a first in the race in the last three years, a good record that could well be improved upon on Wednesday.
This time around he runs BROROCCO and at 8/1 (General) he’s worth investing in.
The key to him could be a good gallop as he can be keen in his races, a trait that has halted his progress, but there’s a few that like to go forward here including Dutch Uncle and Dolphin Vista and this is the biggest field the selection has run in in his career.
He’s just the type to take a big leap forward now he runs in a better handicap and his reappearance run at Chelmsford was a hugely eye-catching performance.
The race wasn’t run to suit that day as it was a moderate gallop and he was subsequently keen and he found trouble in-running to boot.
Considering all that he ran on very nicely for fifth without being knocked about and he was only beaten three-and-a-half lengths at the line.
Dropped 1lb, he races of 85 on Wednesday and he’s been competitive off that sort of mark in small-field races on his last four starts.
A stronger gallop and the return to turf can see him resume his upward curve and off a low weight with Jimmy Quinn booked he can extend his trainer’s excellent record at this meeting.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +358.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1720 BST on 25/04/17.