Racing betting tips: Saturday May 1
1pt win Al Muffrih in 1.50 Newmarket at 20/1 (Hills)
1pt win Tom Collins in 2.40 Thirsk at 8/1 (888Sport)
1pt win Van Gogh in 3.40 Newmarket at 10/1 (General)
Saturday’s QIPCO 2000 Guineas is undeniably weaker for the defection of Dewhurst hero St Mark’s Basilica but despite the various form lines and intriguing narratives going on elsewhere, 10-time winning trainer Aidan O’Brien still has a typically strong grip on the first Classic of the season.
Dewhurst runner-up Wembley, presumably the choice of Ryan Moore, looks a more than able deputy given his consistent, high-class form shown at two, while Battleground – the mount of Frankie Dettori, who went close on Wichita for O’Brien in the same race last year – is another big player based on what he did in 2020. He could quite conceivably be favourite come Saturday afternoon and was proving popular throughout Friday afternoon.
However, the value lies with the third Ballydoyle representative VAN GOGH under Seamie Heffernan, who rode his ninth and 10th Classic winners for O’Brien aboard Peaceful and Santiago respectively last summer.
Van Gogh was a slow burner last season, seemingly the victim of a muddling campaign which his trainer admits threw his juvenile plans into disarray at points. But the way he ended the year – an eyecatching second to One Ruler in the Autumn Stakes before a storming success in the Criterium International - gave a glimpse as to what the colt could achieve as a three-year-old, and it looks significant he’s been well supported for the Derby recently.
The considerable market move (7/1 generally from 20s at the start of last week) for Epsom may put some punters off siding with the son of American Pharoah on the Rowley Mile, but I’d take completely the opposite view.
Genuine Derby horses should go close in any 2000 Guineas, and history tells us they have - only one of the last eight Derby winners to have also contested the Guineas failed to finish in the first three at Newmarket, and that was Generous who was fourth in 1991.
Only two horses since Nashwan (Sea The Stars and Camelot) have done the Guineas-Derby double but the likes of Sir Percy, New Approach, Australia and Masar all hit the frame and it’s pretty clear class invariably comes to the fore at HQ.
Van Gogh showed he had bags of it in France when last seen and, as argued in my antepost preview, he looked unlucky not to give One Ruler a right race in the Autumn Stakes prior to that, having to switch out and come around weakening horses from the back of the field before laying down his challenge.
The stalls were on the stands’ side that day and it’s pretty clear there’s a massive advantage to any horse who gets first run in that configuration, as One Ruler was able to do under William Buick.
It’s highly unlikely Heffernan will want to be part of the early action in the Guineas but the stalls being in the centre should allow the best horses to emerge when it matters and, from gate nine, I like the fact Van Gogh is drawn right in the middle of Naval Crown (11) and Albadri (six), who look likely to take the field along in a single group up the middle of the track.
Van Gogh’s improvement at the back end of the season came on bad ground but I’d be wary of taking that too literally as his dam, Imagine, won the Irish 1,000 Guineas on good ground, and the Oaks on good to firm.
He’s one of only three previous Group One winners in the field, along with Thunder Moon and Lucky Vega, the latter of which looks cut from the same cloth as his useful half-sister Lady Clair, who was an out-and-out sprinter.
The one to consider at wild prices is Legion Of Honour, who has made steady progress in each of his three starts to date. His form is nowhere near good enough to win a Classic and the horse that beat him off level weights at Newcastle last month – Megallan – hasn’t even shown up for the Gosdens.
Varian running his colt could be seen as tilting at windmills in a sense, but that’s just not something he does, his two previous Guineas runners having been Kingston Hill, who went on to be second in the Derby and win the St Leger, and Estidhkaar, who was down the field as a 6/1 shot in 2015 having got within a neck of Muhaarar in the Greenham on his comeback.
Legion Of Honour is 40/1 generally which looks about right on all known evidence to this point, but he’s clearly a horse to keep in mind for the rest of the season no matter where he ends up at Newmarket.
What's the best bet on the Newmarket undercard?
AL MUFFRIH looks a bet at 16/1 and bigger in the “My Oddsboost On Betfair Suffolk Stakes (Handicap).
He won twice from 10 starts for William Haggas and looks to have been gearing up for a return to turf with five spins on the all-weather since joining Stuart Williams.
Williams seems keen to stick to this sort of trip for the son of Sea The Stars, despite the fact he has form up to a mile and a half for previous connections, and there could be a really nice set-up for him here with the two Johnston horses, Overwrite and Maydanny, joined in the field by Bell Rock who has led in the past too.
Al Muffrih got no sort of trip when finishing down the field on the inside in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton when last seen but he’d been running quite well in defeat before that and his mark has slipped from 95 to a career-low of 88 following the winless winter campaign.
It’s the sort of mark that could really underestimate the horse if the switch back to racing on grass sparks him back to his best, and it’s encouraging to see his two previous visits to the Rowley Mile have produced good runs - a three-length third to Group horse Knight To Behold on debut and a fair fifth in a hot handicap won by Elector.
Haggas to land Thirsk feature with stable debutant
Elsewhere on Saturday, a boost to prize money for the Cliff Stud Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap has attracted a really good field and it’s probably going to take a very well-treated horse to come out on top.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Astro King is the obvious starting point given how well the form of his Nottingham win has worked out, but he’s not the only four-year-old in the race with room to manoeuvre from their current mark.
Hugo Palmer has a very tidy record at the track (9-43) and his Acquitted was runner-up to Palace Pier at Newcastle on his comeback last season. He repeated the feat this time around, only worn down close home by Artistic Rifles when filling runner-up spot in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, but it’s worth recalling he didn’t go on at all following the reappearance run last summer and I’d be a little worried about him second time out after such a big effort.
Nugget, third to Astro King at Nottingham, did it well when beating Danyah at Newbury in the Spring Cup and a 5lb rise doesn’t kill off his chances here (he’s 1lb better off with Astro King), while Jean Baptiste represents an in-form yard and sneaks in at the foot of the weights following three encouraging efforts in defeat for his new trainer George Boughey.
William Haggas and PJ McDonald have both won this event in recent years and it looks quite significant they team up with TOM COLLINS on his debut for the stable. He cost current connections 100,000 guineas when bought out of David Elsworth’s yard in the autumn and might have Group-race potential himself having signed off at three with a neck defeat of Dashing Roger at Pontefract.
Dashing Roger won his next start at Leicester by almost five lengths off a 4lb higher mark before finishing less than two lengths behind Astro King at Lingfield. The Pontefract third, War Defender, has won twice since too, so the form looks pretty solid and should continue to work out.
Tom Collins started last season in the Group Three Classic Trial won by Berlin Tango at Kempton so he’s seemingly always been held in some regard and he could be about to scale new heights having been switched to Haggas and gelded.
His two wins have come in the autumn on soft ground but one of his career-best efforts came at Doncaster on good to firm last summer – a red-hot race that threw up 10 subsequent winners in total including Listed scorer Indie Angel – so I’m happy enough to chance him here on the ground.
The high draw (13) doesn’t put me off much either as I’d rather he was wider than buried down on the inside which can throw up all sorts of problems for horses looking to be played later in the piece.
Published at 1600 BST on 30/04/21
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