Our Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best bet at the prices for the Irish Grand National and he fancies one each-way at 50/1.
Recommended Bet: Value Bet Irish National
1pt e.w Forever Gold in 5.00 Fairyhouse at 50/1
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Just like the rest of the season, the Boylesports Irish Grand National is dominated by Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins. Elliott has 13 runners in Fairyhouse’s Easter Monday showpiece, while three of Mullins’ four runners are in the top six in the betting.
Pairofbrowneyes is favourite for Mullins on the back of a comfortable win in the Leinster National at Gowran on his stable debut three weeks ago, while Monbeg Notorious is the best-fancied of the Elliott 13 as he bids to complete a four-timer.
It would be no surprise if these powerhouse yards dominated the result as well, but the Irish National has thrown up its fair share of shocks over the years with smaller yards enjoying their slice of the pie in several renewals.
And with Mullins and Elliott horses clustered together at the top of the market, the value could well lie with a horse from a much smaller yard again this year.
With the ground described as Soft to Heavy, I want a proper stayer on my side as well and with all this in mind the one that appeals the most at the prices is Edward Cawley’s FOREVER GOLD at 50/1 (Sky Bet and Paddy Power are 1/5 the odds 1,2,3,4,5,6 places on each-way bets).
This horse just sneaks in at the bottom of the weights and though he is 2lb out of the handicap this race is perfect for him as he’s a really strong stayer and he loves Fairyhouse.
In December he was second over the Irish National course and distance to subsequent RSA Chase hero Presenting Percy, beaten 11 lengths by that particular handicap blot but he was eight lengths clear of the rest of the field, several of which reoppose on Monday.
It’s not the first time he’s excelled in that race as he won it in 2016, beating Thunder And Roses by over four lengths, and he was second to Bless The Wings in the 2015 renewal.
With such an affinity for 3m5f around Fairyhouse he has looked an Irish National type for some time, but this is the first renewal where he’s been rated high enough to just sneak in.
He’s trained just 10 minutes from the track at Batterstown and his handler Cawley has a really good record at his local course. He’s had seven winners from 53 runners in handicaps at Fairyhouse at 13 per cent and that rises to 45 per cent when you include his placed horses.
Forever Gold has contributed to that number given his record in Fairyhouse handicaps is 2-8-1-2-2-11-F-5-4-7 and it’s that course form rather than his last two subdued efforts (at Leopardstown and Punchestown) which is worth focusing on.
He has no problem with testing ground, stays really well and gets weight from pretty much everything. Yes, he has some big guns from the powerhouse yards to overcome, but, at 50/1, considering he has plenty in his favour, he looks worth an each-way bet.
Posted at 1700 BST on 01/04/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +370.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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