Free racing tips: Value Bet preview and recommended bets for day two of July Festival at Newmarket
The Newmarket-trained Revich features among Matt Brocklebank's selections as he looks ahead to Friday's action, fresh from tipping Progressive Rating at a huge price on Thursday.
Recommended bets: Friday, July 10
1pt win Revich in 1.50 Newmarket at 20/1
1pt win Overwrite in 3.35 Newmarket at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s a shame the Classic generation can’t be better represented but Friday’s Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes brings together a fascinating bunch of older fillies.
Terebellum takes up a fair proportion of the market and it’s true that her Queen Anne near-miss represented another step up on what appears to be a really progressive profile.
She’s obviously not the only one capable of clocking that kind of performance in this line-up, however, and a lot will depend whether or not she’s reached the ceiling of her ability or is capable of a bit more.
She now goes off level weights against proven Group One winners One Master, Billesdon Brook and Magic Wand, but the one to be with could be stable companion Nazeef, who appears to be improving at a similar rate based on her Duke Of Cambridge win at Royal Ascot.
She finds loads off the bridle – which isn’t necessarily the case with Terebellum – and will surely be winning at the top level before the end of the season, but it’s hard to argue she’s the wrong price here.
The Price Promise At bet365 Handicap is largely made of up exposed handicappers but one such animal, top weight Zhui Feng, merits respect as he bids to break a long losing run. He came up against some rapid improvers at Royal Ascot but should be far more at home trying to make all the running in this company.
Herculean is another towards the head of the weights who deserves a positive mention as it’s pretty noteworthy when a shrewd trainer like Stuart Williams gets hold of what is perceived to be a largely disappointing horse and tries something a bit radical.
Perhaps dropping right back in trip will suit the ex-Roger Charlton inmate, but he’s short enough all things considered, whereas we already know seven furlongs is right up REVICH’s street, and he’s the one to be backing at 20/1 (bet365).
Admittedly, Richard Spencer’s runner has two ways of racing and there isn’t much room for the happy medium, but that means he can quite quickly get himself fairly-handicapped again which appears to be the case now.
He looked squarely in need of the run at Newmarket last month, when only plugging on past a couple of tired rivals late on, but he stepped up a lot from his comeback to be beaten a neck at Haydock last May and we could see something similar.
Later in the campaign he seemed to really find his niche over this specialist trip and his narrow Epsom win over Sir Busker, in addition to placed efforts behind Sir Maximilian and Tinto at Chester and Ascot respectively, give him a serious form chance here.
He remains a touch (3lb) above his last winning mark but is still only a four-year-old, has had just the nine lifetime starts at seven furlongs - winning two of them – and may well have been pointed towards this local meeting from a fair way out having really caught the eye with a staying-on fourth over six furlongs here at the end of last June.
The bet365 Handicap was one of the races to include a tip in Monday’s antepost column but confirmation that OVERWRITE (12/1 General) runs here under a penalty, with Frankie Dettori booked, is enough to double up in the race.
He’s not particularly stoutly bred but has shaped very much like he’d improve significantly for the step up to 10 furlongs ever since his comeback fourth over seven at Newcastle and he’s plotted a familiar path to this event, one which Mark Johnston has won five times in the last seven years.
Torchlighter won it in 2014 under a 6lb penalty having won at Windsor less than a fortnight beforehand, while Resonant (2015) and Maputo (2013) had both gained big-field experience in the Britannia Stakes.
Overwrite ticks both boxes after his highly creditable, front-running sixth to Khaloosy at the Royal meeting, while he was backed like an extremely well-handicapped colt when delivering under Andrea Atzeni 12 days ago.
There are two others from the yard here to factor in but the grey looks by far the most progressive and should be backed accordingly at double-figure prices.
Christopher Wood is already on side from Monday in the bet365 Trophy and he looks potentially really well treated on the pick of his jumps form.
There’s a chance of more rain on raceday morning which would be particularly welcome for Paul Nicholls’ charge but there’s no great urge to double down on him here with the 20/1 long gone.
Posted at 1600 BST on 09/07/20
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