Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Tips for Haydock and Newmarket Saturday

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt win Stoneyford Lane in 2.20 Haydock at 9/1

1pt win Scorching Heat in 3.05 Newmarket at 8/1

1pt win Amazing Red in 3.40 Newmarket at 14/1

1pt win So Beloved in 4.05 Haydock at 8/1

1pt win That Is The Spirit in 4.05 Haydock at 25/1

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After a transitional period that came about when moving yards, David O’Meara appears to be motoring again. His tally of 15 turf winners for May was bettered by his team just the once in the previous 20 months and, even more importantly, it included some high-profile wins at York’s Dante meeting.

Now he’s used to his new surroundings he’s a trainer to keep a close eye on this summer, particularly in the valuable handicaps which he has so often done very well in. However, his exploits with the likes of Amazing Maria and Mondialiste show that he can pull a rabbit out of the hat in Group races as well and he has a strong hand in the Group Three Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock (4.05) on Saturday.

Before we get to his pair, this looks a good opportunity to win a race of this calibre. Breton Rock and Jallota are very good, consistent, horses, but life is more difficult for them on Saturday under penalties and there isn’t much between them and the rest of the field.

Growl is actually the top-rated horse in the line-up and he gets weight from the aforementioned duo as well, but he does have his stamina to prove for this trip. He raced keenly over this distance in the Bunbury Cup last summer and in testing conditions the percentage call is to take him on.

Absolutely So has to prove himself on the soft ground, while this looks too hot for Hillbilly Boy. Perhaps Mitchum Swagger can bounce back dropped in grade on ideal conditions, but he’s pretty short in the market at 5/1 and he does have something to prove dropping to seven furlongs with all of his best form over a mile.

Everything, however, looks in place for the O’Meara duo and at the prices I suggest backing them both. SO BELOVED looks to have a solid chance at 8/1 (General), while THAT IS THE SPIRIT is over-priced at 25/1 (General).

So Beloved is on a losing run of 10, but his run here at Haydock last time looked an excellent platform from which to build on and he has plenty in his favour this weekend. 

The track is a big positive as he always runs well here as two wins and two thirds from four appearances shows. His career-best run came here when he won a Listed race by two lengths just over a year ago and he hinted he wasn’t too far off a return to that level last time in this season’s equivalent contest.

Rated 113 at his very best, if he runs near to that mark on Saturday he’ll be hard to beat and the recent rain should not inconvenience him. Indeed, he beat soft-ground specialist and recent Hambleton winner Here Comes When on soft ground at Goodwood back in 2015.

He travelled well last time and was perhaps inconvenienced by coming from off the pace, the two that beat him racing prominently before rallying to deny him in the closing stages. However, it was a performance that suggested he’s ready to strike again and he can make the most of the weight he gets from two of those shorter than himself in the betting.

That Is The Spirit is a harder sell, but he looks too readily dismissed at 25s. He too has shown top form at Haydock, and though he’s run at the track just twice it does include his career-best win, which came in a Listed race over Saturday’s trip in soft ground.

He made all that day and they couldn’t really get anywhere near him. It’ll be much tougher to dominate this field, but there is a chance he could get a soft lead and I don’t think he’ll be hanging around as a good gallop will suit his stablemate as well.

After losing his way in the middle of last season he rediscovered his form at the back end and has carried that on into the new campaign. His efforts in handicaps from the front this spring at Chelmsford have been efforts that are something approaching his best and his victory from Rusumaat in April was well-advertised by that horse here at Haydock recently.

Back on turf, on ideal ground, he could well step forward again and at 25/1 he’s worth a small bet along with his stablemate So Beloved.

Also at Haydock Steph Hollinshead’s STONEYFORD LANE is worth backing at 9/1 (General) in the Betway Sprint Handicap (2.20).

This horse showed good form as a juvenile, beating Kreb’s Cycle (85-rated at best) and finishing second to Copper Knight (now rated 101) in the Lily Agnes. Down the field in the Coventry Stakes after that he’s had just three starts since but hinted he might’ve plenty to offer from his current mark of 75 at York last time.

Fifth in the sprint won by O’Meara’s Coolfitch, he was outpaced over five furlongs but stayed on nicely to be beaten just over two lengths at the line. Dropped 1lb since and moved up to six furlongs here, he handles cut in the ground well and looks underestimated.

There are good handicaps everywhere on Saturday and while Chester’s Liverpool Gin Handicap looks at the mercy of Mark Johnston’s hot-favourite Khamaary, there are a couple of bets to be had at Newmarket on the July Course.

Batts Rock was very much on the radar for the John Sunley Memorial Handicap (3.40) after an eye-catching run at Goodwood last time where he clipped heels when going well, but I was hoping for a bit better than the single-figure prices on offer.

With that in mind I’m drawn to the 14/1 (General) about Ed Dunlop’s AMAZING RED who might just take off now he’s stepped up in distance to staying trips.

A half-brother to brilliant three-time Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux, Amazing Red looked to have bundles of potential when overcoming a tight situation to win easily at Pontefract in a maiden at the start of last season.

Things can’t have gone smoothly after that as he was off the track for a year before an encouraging comeback third over a mile and a half at Wolverhampton at the end of April.

Kept to the same trip at Hamilton last time, he failed to build on his seasonal reappearance but it wasn’t a dramatic drop in form by any means and he could well kick on from both of this season’s efforts now he tackles 1m6f for the first time.

Finally, the 8/1 (General) about Andrew Balding’s SCORCHING HEAT is too good to ignore in the Porsche Centre Cambridge Handicap (3.05).

The 8lb weight-for-age allowance he gets here makes this a terrific bit of placing as he gets in the weights at the bottom, receiving a stone and more from everything in the field.

An improved performer this season, he won well at Salisbury before bumping into one that relished the conditions at Leicester last time.

Scorching Heat travelled like the best horse in the race that day and there looks to be plenty more to come from him in the sprinting division this season.

This is his toughest assignment yet, but the very fact his trainer feels he’s ready for it is a pointer in itself and, with top lightweight jockey Jimmy Quinn booked to do the steering, I can’t resist him. 

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +385.74pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 09/06/17.