Racing betting tips: Saturday, March 13
1pt e.w. Dorking Lad in 1.50 Sandown at 25/1 (BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Fransham in 2.25 Sandown at 25/1 (BoyleSports, BetVictor 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Zarzyni in 3.15 Wolverhampton at 11/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt win Stratagem in 3.35 Sandown at 8/1 (General)
Take 25/1 shot in Imperial Cup
The sweet-travelling FRANSHAM has already had a productive season but could have another major payday in him and is fancied to run a huge race in Saturday’s Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle at Sandown.
Last season Fransham’s form tailed off slightly after winning first time out in November 2019, but he’s seemingly going from strength to strength as a seven-year-old this time around, despite a couple of defeats since landing a Wetherby double before the turn of the year.
He was bumped up 10lb to a new mark of 140 after the second of those decisive successes in West Yorkshire, but has since been a good third at Kempton and arguably produced the form of his life when second at Newcastle late last month.
The replay is well worth a revisit as he looked all over the winner after moving through the race like much the best horse and taking up the running on the long run towards the last flight.
In the end he evidently got there too soon as he didn’t do a tap in front and was gunned down by fast-finishing Hooligan just before the line, but it was another performance that strongly hinted he was still on a competitive mark.
Raised just another 1lb since, he comes into this tougher event completely overlooked in the betting but, crucially, he should get a really strongly-run race with the likes of One True King and Eamon An Cnoic taking them along at a good clip.
On recent evidence I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Fransham is last off the bridle and if Kielan Woods can keep a bit in reserve for the final climb to the line then he’ll be on the scene when it matters.
There are a range of extra place offers available but I consider the win part of the bet a real player so will take the biggest price on the market for the sake of fifth or sixth registering as a place.
Moore charge a winner in waiting
Gary Moore is responsible for the Imperial Cup favourite in Natural History but I’d much rather back his DORKING LAD each-way in the EBF Paddy Power ‘National Hunt Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final.
He’s yet to pick up a victory in his career but has only had the four complete outings over jumps as the Plumpton maiden hurdle - for which he was 8/13 favourite - was voided three hurdles from the finish.
He was in front at the time and had raced quite freely again but his jumping looked to have sharpened up a bit which is going to be key here in this more competitive field.
That’s not the first time he’s shown a lot of promise either. He was third to the high-class Adrimel first time out over timber here in November and then bumped into another above-average rival when second (despite losing a shoe) in his EBF qualifier behind Annual Invictus at Plumpton on January 3.
The winner has since finished fourth off a mark of 135 in the Betfair Hurdle, so while Dorking Lad was getting 10lb from that one at Plumpton, leaving Moore’s horse on a mark of 117 seems quite generous.
That gets him in under bottom weight this weekend and stepping back to two and a half miles doesn’t look an issue at all, nor is the prospect of quite testing ground which his half-brother Lecale’s Article handled well enough before a bad blunder two-out cost him when third on the same track on Friday afternoon.
Nicholls' grey getting his act together
The Paul Nicholls-trained STRATAGEM looks to have a favourite’s chance despite top weight in the Paddy’s Rewards Club Novices’ Handicap Chase so definitely merits a bet at the prices.
He had some eyecatching form over hurdles including a three-length win over now-stablemate Solo in France and while it’s not all been plain sailing for him since switching to fences this term, the move up to two and a half miles looks to have been the making of him.
He really impressed with the way he went about his business over this trip at Doncaster when last seen and a subsequent 5lb rise looks more than merited.
It was only a three-runner affair and he was able to dominate from the off but the second, Ballymoy, has been third – beaten a length – in a good race at Newbury and then won by 18 lengths at Catterick subsequently (now rated 141).
Stratagem took care of him easily and appears to have really mastered his jumping technique, something that will be essential in this deeper race especially as there are others who are highly likely to try and take him on up front.
But I like horses with a class edge in novices' handicap chases at this time of year and nothing has quite the same potential in terms of the level at which Stratagem could end up operating.
Don't miss Barron recruit at Wolves
I was all for giving the three ITV4 races from Wolverhampton a pass and last year’s second Documenting looks one of the more solid chances in the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes, but I can’t let ZARZYNI go unbacked at double-figure odds in the Betway Handicap over six furlongs.
To suggest he’s got something to prove would be a bit of an understatement as he was last of 13 at Listowel when last seen in public (September 22), but he wouldn’t be the first sprinter to find life tough as a three-year-old, and looks exactly the type of horse David Barron can rekindle as an older handicapper.
Barron went to €62,000 to acquire the son of Siyouni for principal owner Laurence O’Kane at Goffs in the autumn and it wouldn’t be the greatest shock to see the horse immediately start repaying some of that outlay as he looks to have a seriously good BHA mark from which to start the rebuilding process.
It’s not like he couldn’t raise a leg last season – he finished third to Art Power at Naas in July and ran another relatively encouraging race when seventh of 18, beaten just two and a half lengths, in a premier handicap at Leopardstown in mid-September – but it’s his juvenile form which raises most interest.
After winning a Gowran maiden first time out for Mick Halford, he was third to Armory in the Tyros Stakes before finishing fourth, beaten just two lengths this time, behind Lope Y Fernandez in the Round Tower at the Curragh.
On that latter effort, and some of his peak performances from 2020 to be fair to him, he’d have a massive chance from a mark of just 90 now, and having gone in on debut we can presume he’s possibly not the hardest to get straight at home.
His new trainer Barron has sent out two sprint handicap winners since the start of the month, including Bert Kibbler who won at 9/1 on his seasonal debut having been off since October, so it’s reassuring to know the string is in good heart generally.
At the prices it’s worth rolling the dice and backing the choicely-bred, ex-Aga Khan Zarzyni to come out fit and firing in a race lacking anything wildly obvious that’ll be particularly hard to beat.
Published at 1630 GMT on 12/03/21
Saturday ITV Racing schedule
Sandown:
- 1.50
- 2.25
- 3.00
- 3.35
Wolverhampton:
- 2.05
- 2.40
- 3.15
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