Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on Cambridgeshire day and he has four selections at big prices including two against the field in the big handicap.
It’s amazing to think Godolphin have yet to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire given the talented handicappers they’ve thrown at the contest in recent years, but that duck could well be broken on Saturday afternoon as they unleash a talented trio at the big handicap.
In 1994 they bought a Cambridgeshire winner, Halling, a brilliant horse that went on to win two Coral-Eclipses and two Juddmonte Internationals. Trained by John Gosden when he won the Cambridgeshire, Saeed bin Suroor saddled him to his victories at Sandown and York as per their policy at the time of switching their expensive purchases to their own trainer.
The operation casts a wider net these days, of course, and every Group One they’ve won in England this season has been from an ‘outside yard’, namely Ribchester at Richard Fahey’s, Barney Roy at Richard Hannon’s and Harry Angel at Clive Cox’s.
So, long gone are the days when Gosden would see a Halling leave his yard to be trained elsewhere and in LINGUISTIC (25/1 Ladbrokes) we have a horse that could give the master trainer his fourth Cambridgeshire victory and Godolphin’s first.
Lightly-raced, the son of Lope De Vega has had just seven career starts in three seasons in training, but there are several clues that suggest his handicap mark of 103, ahead of his debut in the sphere, could be a lenient one with his unexposed profile in mind.
He has plenty of experience at this track and beat Harlequeen, rated 110 in her pomp, in the Tattersalls Millions in April of last year when giving her 5lb. Talked about as a potential Derby horse after that, such suggestions were muted when he was beaten a short head in the Dee Stakes at Chester and he only ran twice more as a three-year-old with his campaign ending at Royal Ascot.
In April, though, he was back. Proving he went well fresh after a good break, he was second in a 10-furlong Listed race at Kempton on his first start since being gelded, form that was emphatically franked by the third home, Sovereign Debt, who won his next three starts including once at Group Two level.
Again, we haven’t seen Linguistic since, but, while he’s clearly not the easiest to train, he at least makes his handicap debut off an attractive-looking mark and it could be significant that Gosden has chosen the deep end for this talented gelding’s autumn comeback.
Proven over 10 furlongs and with good form to his name at the track, the nine-furlong strong-gallop big-field combination could be perfect for him to show off his very best form and he’s worth chancing at a big price to finally display his latent talent.
He’s drawn on the far side in stall five and, while there’s pace seemingly spread across the track, there are several prominent racers drawn towards the stands’ side and I want one drawn among the high numbers running for me as well.
The one that appeals the most is Karl Burke’s YOU’RE FIRED at 33/1 (General, check your each-way terms, Sky Bet are going EIGHT places 1/5 the odds on all each-way bets) and he’s drawn towards the stands’ side rail in 34.
This horse looks quite high in the weights off 105 but he has already won a handicap off just 3lb lower and looked in really good nick on his return under Saturday’s 7lb claimer, Patrick O’Hanlon, when third at Doncaster last time.
That race has recent previous in this race as Bronze Angel was second in it before winning his second Cambridgeshire and, with impressive winner Kryptos unfortunately sidelined, it could be one of the placed horses again that goes on to big-race glory.
SKY BET ODDS: Linguistic Price Boost
One of the most impressive aspects of You’re Fired’s Doncaster effort was that it was his first run since April 1, and he’s a horse that normally needs a run to get him straight (he won second time out his first four seasons in training without winning on his seasonal debut).
There’s a good chance he’ll improve for his Doncaster run, then, and if he does he’s a huge price at 33s considering a) his stable’s good recent run of form and b) his own abilities in big-field handicaps.
The trip is an unknown for him, but he has won over an extended mile twice before and it could just be perfect for him. If the stands’ side group is the place to be he could be primed to run a huge race and at 33s he’s worth an each-way bet.
Earlier on the card there’s a stellar renewal of the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes but this is a race that has thrown up its fair share of shocks in recent years.
Winners at 25/1 (twice) and 22/1 in the last seven renewals show that and, even though his Gimcrack form is probably the best on offer, I did think Sands Of Mali was relatively short at 4/1 in a race as deep as this.
There are lots with chances, but I was taken by HEY JONESY’S performances twice at York this year and at 14/1 (General) he’s worth taking a punt on.
Kevin Ryan’s charge easily beat Staxton at the end of July and that rival was a pretty close up fifth in the Gimcrack, suggesting there’s not much between Hey Jonesy and Sands Of Mali on a line through Tim Easterby’s horse.
Subsequently Hey Jonesy ran a belter when third in the valuable sales race at York’s Ebor Festival, finishing third overall but five lengths clear of the stands’ side group where he raced alone for much of the contest.
It’s an effort that can be seriously marked up and at 16s he’s worth backing to win a third Middle Park for Ryan, following on from Astaire’s success in the race four years ago and Amadeus Wolf’s 2005 victory.
Finally, ICE AGE looks a big price at 9/1 (General, 10/1 Stan James) to continue his winning streak in the 32Red Gold Cup at Haydock.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s four-year-old is thriving and is going for his fourth consecutive victory following wins at Windsor (twice) and the Curragh.
Even under an 8lb penalty he’s 2lb well in and he was seriously impressive in testing ground in Ireland last time, powering clear from some consistent rivals including Tithonus who has run well again in defeat since.
He’s the obvious frontrunner again on the far side in Saturday’s contest and he could be hard to catch in his current form, with conditions likely to be no inconvenience judging by his latest run.
Recommended bets
1pt win Linguistic in 3.35 Newmarket at 25/1
1pt e.w You’re Fired in 3.35 Newmarket at 33/1
1pt win Hey Jonesy in 3.00 Newmarket at 14/1
1pt win Ice Age in 3.15 Haydock at 9/1
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +356.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 29/09/17