Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on day three of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival at York and he's siding with a Kevin Ryan-trained horse in the Gimcrack.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Ebor Festival, Day Three
1pt e.w Caliburn in 1.55 York at 14/1
1pt win Emaraaty Ana in 3.00 York at 12/1
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Is it worth taking on the colossus that is Battaash in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday?
That is the question that should be on the lips of punters heading into day three of the Ebor Festival. On the one hand he’s brilliant at his best and likely much too good for his Nunthorpe opponents. But on the other he can run his race before he’s even loaded into the stalls, like he did a year ago in this very contest when he got a bit worked up on his way to the start and was reluctant to load.
Keeping a lid on him is key, but Charlie Hills has done an excellent job with him this year, so, even at 4/6, I’m reluctant to take him on as if he goes in the stalls without fuss they’re unlikely to see which way he goes.
The Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup looks a race to swerve as well with Stradivarius chalked up at 4/9 to land the sponsors’ stayers’ million bonus.
There are no chinks in his armour and it would be a huge shock were he turned over, with the 3lb Group One penalty not quite big enough to justify taking him on with the majority of his opponents having seen his backside before.
Bets look to be thin on the ground on Friday, then, but the opening Sky Bet Handicap offers a puzzle with 20 runners and the favourite Melting Dew up 5lb for finishing second last time.
He’s progressive but can be taken on each-way and the one I like the look of is Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old CALIBURN at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5).
The only three-year-old in the line-up gets 9lb on the weight-for-age scale here and it looks a good opportunity for him especially with him going back up in trip to a mile-and-a-half.
That can only be a benefit to him following a sharpener over 10 furlongs on the July Course at Newmarket last time, where he was outpaced before staying on again for third in the closing stages.
His run there came on the back of a sixth place in the Bahrain Trophy over 1m5f at the same track, where he travelled quite well before fading late on.
The company may have been a bit deep but he seemed to not quite stay as well and it’s over a mile-and-a-half where he can resume his upward progression.
He’s got a nice draw in three where he can attain a prominent position without exerting himself and he might even get a lovely tow into things from perennial front runner Mukhayyam.
It’s paid to be prominent in the big-field handicaps this week, with a bit of wind perhaps not helping the hold-up merchants coming from off the gallop, so it is with hope Caliburn races up with the pace as he normally does.
Of the hold-up horses Theglasgowwarrior was on the shortlist as he’s been unlucky in-running on his last two runs, while he stays further and is holding his form well.
However, he’s been nibbled at already in the market and looks short enough at around the 10/1 and 12/1 mark, even if he could have a big say if the cards fall his way.
The Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes is the other live race on ITV and Space Traveller looks a worthy favourite for trainer Richard Fahey and owners Clipper Logistics, both of whom paired up with 33/1 winner Red Balloons in the big sales race on Thursday.
This unbeaten Bated Breath colt has done nothing wrong in two starts and he looks set to appreciate moving back up to six furlongs for the yard that won this race last year with Sands Of Mali.
I’m not mad keen to take him on, but I thought Kevin Ryan’s EMARAATY ANA was just big enough at 12/1 (bet365, Ladbrokes) to have a small bet.
Ryan has won this race three times in the past and this horse’s excellent debut win at Windsor in April was well advertised by the now 95-rated Blown By Wind who has won a couple of times since.
It was 81 days since Emaraaty Ana was out on the track again and he looked a bit rusty and or green when third behind Natalie’s Joy at Newbury, but he didn’t run too badly in the circumstances.
It’s not unusual for a horse from the Ryan yard to take a big leap forward in form in a race of this nature at York and Emaraaty Ana certainly has the potential considering that impressive debut win.
Jamie Spencer takes over in the saddle as well which is a big positive considering his recent form and at 12/1 he’s taken to record a fourth victory in the Gimcrack for Ryan.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +335.18pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 23/08/18.