Value Bet Ben Linfoot's free racing tips for Newmarket 2000 Guineas day June 6 2020

Recommended Bets, Newmarket June 6

1pt win Shades Of Blue in 1.50 Newmarket at 7/1

1pt win Ornate in 1.50 Newmarket at 25/1

1pt e.w. Mums Tipple in 3.35 Newmarket at 40/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

The first Classic of the season is finally here, a month later than usual, with the QIPCO 2000 Guineas kicking off a revised schedule for the cream of the three-year-old crop at Newmarket on Saturday.

This race revolves around Pinatubo, an outstanding two-year-old, who carried all before him last season at Epsom, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, the Curragh and at Newmarket itself in the Dewhurst Stakes.

He won his six races as a juvenile by a combined margin of 24 lengths and absolutely pulverised them in an astonishing Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh where the Guineas second favourite, Arizona, was over nine lengths behind in third.

With 10lb in hand of his nearest rival on Saturday on his two-year-old form, quotes around the 10/11 mark look perfectly fair, but the big question is will he still have such a class advantage now these colts are a year older?

The truth is he could even regress a little bit and win this, while there looks to be no obvious reason why he shouldn’t have trained on, with a slight lack of physical scope the one thing straw-clutchers might cling to if you were dead set on taking him on.

Another thing to consider is the track, as the place to be at Newmarket the last few days has been in front on the rail, any rail, but the course switches to the stands’ side track on Saturday so it’s anyone’s guess if that will still be the case.

I wasn’t in any rush to back against Pinatubo, but with 40/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3, 33/1 General) dangled about MUMS TIPPLE I can’t resist an each-way bet. I would rather have the bigger price but bet365, Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are going four places.

The Hannon yard had horses run well in both Guineas long before Billesdon Brook produced a 66/1 shock in the 1000 Guineas two years ago and it could be significant that Mums Tipple is the sole representative from the yard given Threat could’ve come here.

Hannon reported this week that Mums Tipple did a fabulous piece of work at Kempton recently and his incredible 11-length win in the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York last season is arguably the most memorable piece of two-year-old form from last season (barring Pinatubo).

It was a superb effort on the clock and eight of his vanquished rivals came out and franked the form with wins, while his maiden success at Ascot also worked out well with the second, fourth and fifth winning five races between them subsequently.

The reason Mums Tipple is such a big price is because he was seventh in the Middle Park at Newmarket last September, but he finished lame that day and it simply wasn’t his running, so I’m happy to put a line through it.

He also has to prove he stays having only raced over six furlongs, but he’s by a Guineas winner in Footstepsinthesand and out of a mare that was related to horses that stayed, so he’s far from a doubtful stayer on pedigree even if he did display pace in abundance at two.

At the prices I’m happy to take a chance on him.

Betting opportunities look thin on the ground elsewhere at both Newmarket and Newcastle, unless you’re keen on taking on some potential John Gosden-trained superstars in Waldkonig and Palace Pier.

Such a strategy doesn’t interest me, but I do want to have a go at the Group Three Betfair Supports Racing Welfare Palace House Stakes (1.50 Newmarket) as SHADES OF BLUE looks a big price at 7/1 (General).

I’d have her outright favourite in this as she’s trained by a master of sprinters in Clive Cox and she improved throughout her three-year-old campaign last year which culminated in a challenge for the Prix de l’Abbaye.

The soft ground went against her that day, but previous to that run she was only beaten a head by the Abbaye winner, Glass Slippers, at Longchamp and she only lost that race in the shadow of the post having looked the likely winner.

That form is the standout in this race and she gets 3lb from the colts, while she remains unexposed over five furlongs having had just six career runs over the trip.

Cox won this race with Profitable a few years ago before he went on to win the King’s Stand and that Royal Ascot race could well be the target for this filly, too, if she goes well here.

She should get a nice tow into the race from ORNATE, drawn next door to her in stall eight, but I do want to have a saver on David Griffiths’ horse given he’s a general 25/1.

He’s the obvious trailblazer in the line-up and as we’ve seen at Newmarket this week front runners have been hard to peg back.

If he gets on a roll he could be hard to catch, just as he was in the Epsom Dash this time last year, while he won on his first turf start last season, as well, on this very course.

He didn’t finish the last campaign well, but he’s had wind surgery since then and we know he goes well fresh.

After his long break he could be a big danger off the front end and on his very best form he doesn’t have much to find at all with the best of these.

Posted at 1700 BST on 05/06/20

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