Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of the Craven Meeting at Newmarket on Tuesday.
Value Bet Selections
The Flat season goes up a gear this week with Newmarket hosting the Craven Meeting and local trainer James Tate can continue his good start to the year on day one of the three-day event.
Tate has sent out nine winners from 33 runners in 2017, a win strike-rate of 27 per cent, and recent victories for Kyllang Rock and Law And Order shows his stable remains in good heart.
The latter is not without a chance in the day’s feature, the bet365 Feilden Stakes, even with his 3lb penalty for that recent win, but a better bet looks to be stablemate VIA VIA at 6/1 (General) in the Plusvital Racing Genepak Handicap at 3.30.
This horse is on a hat-trick after wins at Newmarket last October and on his seasonal reappearance at Newcastle last month, and that fitness edge he has over more than half of his rivals on Tuesday could be crucial.
Sacred Act (4/1) could well have more to offer but he is priced up accordingly and he was pretty disappointing in the Spring Mile last time, while Next Stage (9/2) is coming off the back of a long lay-off and he was last at Salisbury when last seen in June.
Either of those two could be good enough off their current marks to win this, but all of their reputation is built into their odds and purely on form Via Via should be favourite.
He’s proven on the track, proven on the ground and his latest form has substance to it. Third home Twin Appeal boosted the race with a good win at Musselburgh at the weekend while others from the Newcastle contest have come out and run well too.
It suggests a 4lb rise for Via Via was lenient enough and he should improve on that on his second start back, while the step up in trip to a mile looks likely to be a benefit as well.
He’s a half-brother to Marjalina, Australia Day, What A Charm and Gwafa, who all won over a mile or further, and the way he’s been winning over seven suggests the extra furlong could unlock a great deal more improvement.
Odds of 6/1 are skinny enough for this column, but I’d have him chalked up as a solid enough favourite so there could well be some juice in his price yet.
There is another that stands out at the odds and that’s REPERCUSSION at 25/1 (Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook) and I want him on side as well.
It’s not easy to gauge how good his French form is, but even a little digging suggests he’s been slotted in at too big a price.
His form for Andre Fabre suggests he’ll be fine on the ground and his second to Zayva in a conditions race at Clairefontaine was boosted when that filly went on to win a Listed race at Chantilly with Ralph Beckett’s 98-rated Desert Haze back in fourth.
New trainer Charlie Fellowes was talking about lofty Royal Ascot targets in this stable tour before the season started, and, if he is to even contest races like the Hunt Cup he’s likely to need to improve at least a little from his current rating of 95.
Of course, there’s plenty of guesswork with him, but that’s no reason to have him up at 25s and I wouldn’t want to lay him at that price. He’s worth a roll of the dice.
Finally, SEEKING MAGIC looks a good bet at 7/1 (General) in the closing Quy Mill Hotel & Spa Handicap.
Clive Cox’s team are in great nick and Seeking Magic often goes well fresh, as he did at this track last year when he almost won on his seasonal return at the Guineas meeting over a furlong further.
He seems to be more suited to five furlongs these days despite his advancing years and he was still on good terms with himself on the all-weather when last seen late last year.
Drawn pretty close to the stands’ side in stall eight, there’s a good chance he could bag the rail and if he’s in the same form he was this time last year, or when last seen, he could be a tough nut to crack.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +359.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1755 BST on 17/04/17.