Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Doncaster on Friday
Royal Ascot hero Chiefofchiefs can return to winning ways at Doncaster, according to Matt Brocklebank - he's back with three Value Bet selections on Friday.
Recommended bets, Friday September 11
1pt win High Wells in 1.40 Doncaster at 14/1
1pt win Chiefofchiefs in 2.10 Doncaster at 8/1
1pt win Frenetic in 2.40 Doncaster at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
There’s a far more appealing look to Friday’s St Leger Festival action when it comes to unearthing value and the one who really stands out is FRENETIC in the Group Two Bombardier Flying Childers Stakes.
The very best sprinters tend to have a bit of a kink when it comes to temperament and there’s no denying the potentially top-class daughter of Kodiac has shown a few quirks, including flicking her tail after going down narrowly (three-quarters of a length) to Miss Amulet in a Listed race at Naas in early-August.
She seemingly wasn’t quite at her best there, having won her first two starts in sensational style before being turned over by Aloha Star when odds-on for the Group Two Airlie Stud Stakes over six furlongs at the Curragh.
The defeats she’s suffered have dented her lofty reputation a little – there was talk of her coming over for a crack at the Nunthorpe at York at one stage – but the form remains extremely strong and also ties in quite well with Sacred and The Lir Jet, who are both shorter than her in the betting.
Aloha Star went on to be second past the post behind Lucky Vega in the Group One Phoenix Stakes (demoted to third behind The Lir Jet after causing him interference around a furlong out), while Miss Amulet, who was in receipt of 3lb from Frentic at Naas, subsequently beat Sacred a length off level weights in the Lowther.
Ger Lyons’ filly, a 7/1 shot generally, should be closer to the head of the market on that form and while regular rider Colin Keane not travelling has to be factored into calculations, William Buick is hardly a downgrade in the saddle and stall six should allow him to get a nice, prominent position from the outset.
She’s clearly all speed so will enjoy the drying ground on Town Moor too. In short, there’s a lot to like and more than enough juice in the price to make the staking plan.
The 10/1 dangled by a couple of firms on Thursday afternoon about fellow Buick mount CHIEFOFCHIEFS (8/1 General) didn’t last long, but he remains the horse of most interest in the bet365 Handicap over six and a half furlongs.
It’s the kind of trip that could prove absolutely ideal for Charlie Fellowes’ horse, the trainer admitting after he’d won the Silver Wokingham at Royal Ascot that he’d been getting things massively wrong with him in terms of distance previously (tried up to 10 furlongs).
A 19-runner handicap over Ascot’s stiff six definitely takes a bit of getting and he thrived for it with a career-best effort in June, since when he’s been close to the same level of form in the Group Three Chipchase at Newcastle (Tapeta) and International Stakes back at Ascot.
It was seven furlongs last time and there’s no doubt he gets that far as he was a staying-on fourth in a deep race, but dropping back slightly here looks a positive move if anything.
Friday’s race also represents an ease in regards to competitiveness – it’s technically another Class 2 handicap but lacks the same strength in depth.
The early mover in the market was lightly-raced five-year-old Ghalyoon for Marcus Tregoning. A horse that once finished an eyecatching second to Group One winner Nazeef could obviously be thrown in from a mark of 88, but I’m not entirely convinced about him under pressure as he carries his head high when asked for an effort.
Perhaps the second run following a breathing operation could see that all change but a bigger threat might be posed by Sunset Breeze, who is 5lb well-in after going down fighting behind a promising filly in Double Or Bubble at Ascot last week.
He’s a typical Sir Mark Prescott improver and could keep pulling more out of the locker but is still 6lb higher than when completing his hat-trick at Chelmsford so I’m happy enough to take him on.
The rest have something to prove, including Musicality, who has been hit with a 7lb rise for winning at Newmarket when it looked like a few of the vanquished hated the ground. Byline was among them and he is tempting at a price, but does look high enough in the ratings for winning a small-field Leicester handicap (albeit had Musicality back in second that day).
John Gosden’s Alfaatik is another Hamdan Al Maktoum-owned runner bound to be really popular in the bet365 Mallard Handicap. He’s gone up 5lb for winning from Dark Jedi at York and was seemingly good value for that three-quarter-length verdict as he idled when hitting the front.
He’s so lightly raced it’s very hard to know quite where the ceiling of his ability lies, but he’ll need to be close to Pattern level to be winning this off a revised mark of 99 so at the prices the vote goes to HIGH WELLS, who can outrun his odds (14/1 Betfair, Paddy Power).
New trainer Graeme McPherson has completely turned the six-year-old inside out since getting hold of him from Seamus Durack and he’s never looked better than when bolting up over two miles in a seven-runner handicap at Kempton last Friday.
He’s officially 2lb out of the handicap in this better quality event but was set to go up 7lb in future anyway so is effectively running off his new mark under a 5lb penalty for last week’s five and a half length triumph.
That peak performance had been coming as, despite a lesser effort when only fifth to subsequent Melrose winner Coltrane at Newmarket, he had won pretty handsomely from Mr Chua at Sandown in mid-July, the runner-up going on to win his next two starts.
The Sandown success came over a mile and three-quarters so the drop in trip from two miles last time doesn't overly concern me, especially if Luke Morris can track likely pace-setter Hochfeld through the early stages before taking the bull by the horns a long way out.
The market principals prefer to be played later and a good tactical position may prove crucial if High Wells is going to cause an upset under his featherweight.
Posted at 1700 BST on 10/09/20
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