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Scottish Grand National tips: Ayr & Newbury preview and best value bets for Sunday April 18
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Mon May 03, 2021 · 4y ago
Racing betting tips: Sunday April 18
1pt win Anna Bunina in 2.25 Ayr at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Liberated Lady in 2.10 Newbury at 20/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Some Chaos in 3.35 Ayr at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt win Johan in 3.20 Newbury at 14/1 (BoyleSports, Ladbrokes)
Best Bets | 18th April | Scottish Grand National | Sporting Life and Timeform
Interesting stuff from start to finish at Newbury on Sunday and while not desperate to oppose favourite Chindit in the Greenham Stakes, the Dubai Duty Free Stakes for fillies looks deeply competitive and worthy of much closer inspection.
Cheveley Park Stakes winner Alcohol Free sets a warm-to-hot standard and Sacred – eighth behind Andrew Balding’s flying filly in Newmarket’s six-furlong Group One in September – has already come out to frank that piece of form at the Craven meeting this week.
Alcohol Free would appear to fairly comfortably hold Umm Kulthum, Happy Romance, Dandalla and Illykato on that evidence, but her propensity to race keenly in the hands of Oisin Murphy (he's 2-2 on her, to be fair) as a juvenile poses a new question now stepped up in trip with a view to potentially tackling the 1000 Guineas.
They’re all on fact-finding missions, to some extent, but sprinting might be the end game for most of the Cheveley Park gang and it’s really tempting to look elsewhere for a big improver among the more lightly-raced runners.
John and Thady Gosden run two and Wild Iris – the mount of Frankie Dettori – is a fascinating filly having won first time out at Newcastle in spite of badly missing the kick. She won going away in the end (from limited fillies, admittedly) and her presence in this field alone is worth of respect.
Likewise, Roger Varian’s Zarajirah who defied greenness to score at Kempton on debut at the end of October.
The one I’m most interested in at the prices, however, is LIBERATED LADY for Hugo Palmer, who has a decent strike-rate when going to the trouble of securing Ryan Moore’s services.
The daughter of Iffraaj is extremely well bred, being out of a sister to Group One winner Naaqoos, and she looked highly promising in a couple of all-weather outings during November. Following an eye-catching debut second under Joe Fanning, when bumped about and almost stumbling right at the start, she bolted up in a small novice event at Wolverhampton, looking in a totally different league to her rivals.
This demands much more, clearly, but seven furlongs looks absolutely spot on for her – the full-brother Bow And Arrow won four times at the trip including twice on quick turf – and given the improvement I’d expect her to have made, she’s worth a bet with stamina assured.
The MansionBet Spring Cup Handicap is a cracking race and recent all-weather form is under the spotlight again here.
The lightly-raced Troll Peninsula justified a short price with quite a stylish success in a novice event at Kempton last month and he’s a highly likely improver now handicapping, while Newbolt should be on the shortlist too despite his progressive form around the turn of the year coming on Southwell’s Fibresand surface.
At a similar price, though, I can’t let William Haggas’ JOHAN go unbacked.
He failed a vet’s check on the morning of the Lincoln but he’s obviously in good shape again and his short-head defeat of Brunch at Ayr last September was given a little boost with that rival re-emerging with a solid second in the big race at Doncaster.
Johan hasn’t always brought his best form to the table but when he has he’s looked to have genuine Group-race potential, including when slamming a good field at Chelmsford on his penultimate start in October.
He’s been gelded following another backwards step on his final run heading into the winter and while the assessor may have gone slightly overboard in assessing that impressive Chelmsford display, his mark (105) doesn’t look totally beyond him.
Ultimately avoiding Haaqeeqy on Town Moor last month may prove a blessing in disguise and he did win first time out over the mile at Newbury under James Doyle last year, so everything looks in place for the real Johan to turn up, at least.
What are the best bets at Ayr on Sunday?
North of the border, ANNA BUNINA could be the bet of the day in the Coral Scottish Champion Hurdle.
Trainer John McConnell has gone relatively quiet in recent weeks (0-20 in Britain and Ireland during April at time of writing) but it wouldn’t be a surprise if that was partly a reflection of a crossover period following a strong winter on the all-weather at Dundalk, and he’s a trainer who always commands respect when travelling his horses.
Anna Bunina was having her first run over jumps for three months when contesting the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, which may help explain why she initially took a little while to pick up. Once rolling in the straight, however, the mare was really eating up the ground and she certainly didn’t look like a 125/1 shot the way she finished off her race.
The County third, Milkwood, reopposes here off a 2lb higher mark but he’s well found in the betting which can’t exactly be said of Anna Bunina (BHA rating unchanged), who now has the assistance of Brian Hughes taking over from 3lb claimer Conor McNamara.
Another couple of furlongs might be ideal for her at this stage of the season, especially if it dries out appreciably at Ayr, but Glory And Fortune and Voix Du Reve look likely to help force a decent gallop and the selection is likely to take much closer order from the outset on this occasion too.
It could be a red-letter day for Hughes, who rides Dingo Dollar in the Coral Scottish Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase. It’s the kind of race in which it generally pays to be there or thereabouts on the sharp end and the back-to-form Dingo Dollar is among a bunch of likely pace-setters in the line-up.
They also feature SOME CHAOS and it’s Michael Scudamore’s charge who could be the over-priced runner in the big race.
He’s got a fantastic strike-race over fences (5-10), most of which was achieved during a productive novice campaign a couple of seasons back, but he was in good form and still seemingly on the up earlier this year, winning at Kelso before a fair fifth in the Badger Beers Silver Trophy at Wincanton.
He’s been unable to take advantage of a massively reduced hurdles mark this spring, following a 119-day winter break to avoid the worst of the ground, but he looks to have been biding his time for a return to fences having also been entered in the bet365 Gold Cup on the final day of the season.
He’s only running off 3lb higher than for his last success, where he beat the reopposing subsequent winner Claud And Goldie as well as veteran Chidswell, so he doesn’t look handicapped out of it at all, while trainer Scudamore looks to have hit another rich vein of form with three winners in the past fortnight.
At 25s and bigger he's worth an each-way dart with extra places on offer.
Published at 1630 BST on 16/04/21
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