Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Royal Ascot day three tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Royal Ascot Day Three

1pt win Frozen Angel in 2.30 Royal Ascot at 12/1

1pt win Gracious Diana in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 20/1

1pt e.w Horroob in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 25/1

1pt win Mister Manduro in 5.35 Royal Ascot at 16/1

Click here for transparent tipping record 

It has been a mixed week at Royal Ascot for Aidan O’Brien so far but he’s got plenty of big guns to call upon yet and he does so on Thursday with Order Of St George in the day’s feature, the Gold Cup.

The son of Galileo stormed to victory in this race last year on soft ground but he’s right at home on faster conditions as well and he bounced back to winning form last time in the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown.

With French raider Vazirabad ruled out his task has become a bit easier and if anything is to beat a top form St George they are going to have to improve pretty significantly on anything they’ve done before.

O’Brien has the form pick in the Ribblesdale Stakes as well, as his Alluringly was second in the Cheshire Oaks behind Enable before being beaten by the same filly at Epsom last time.

There are a whole host of fillies with the potential to progress past her in the Ribblesdale, however, and at 20/1 (General) John Gosden’s GRACIOUS DIANA looks to have been underestimated.

The daughter of Foxwedge looked a potential Oaks filly when winning on her seasonal reappearance, storming home to win a strong maiden at Newbury in great style.

She travelled strongly that day, loving the fast ground, beating a promising field including Mori, the Ribblesdale second-favourite who has franked the form by winning twice since.

Gracious Diana was sent off the 2/1 favourite for the Listed fillies’ trial back at Newbury on May 20 after that, but she didn’t cope well with the soft ground and was a well beaten fourth in the end.

The ground was a viable excuse, though, and she’s expected to resume her improvement now she returns to a sound surface.

She’s a half-sister to Dandino, a horse who took off at this meeting when stepped up to a mile and a half for the first time back in 2010. He stayed 1m5f well and the step up in distance looks sure to unlock serious improvement in Gracious Diana, too.

There is the potential for some showers on Thursday, but with the course riding so fast the first two days we’ll presume the ground is Good to Firm until we see how significant the rainfall is.

Earlier on the card I want to be with Tom Dascombe’s FROZEN ANGEL (12/1 General) in the Norfolk Stakes.

He looked another Dark Angel sprinter of some quality, in the making at least, when winning at Ascot on May 3 and he was a touch unlucky not to follow that win up in the National Stakes at Sandown next time.

A little outpaced in the early stages, he got going too late as Havana Grey bagged the rail after a flying start and was not for reeling in.

However, this bigger field and likely stronger pace gives Frozen Angel a good chance of reversing the form – and it looks solid form, too.

Back in fourth in the National Stakes was Tuesday’s Windsor Castle winner Sound And Silence, so it’s hard to find a stronger piece of form in the race. 

Havana Grey is an 8/1 chance, but at 12/1 Frozen Angel looks the one to be on given he has a very realistic chance of reversing the Sandown placings.

Thursday’s card ends with two cracking handicaps including the 30-runner Britannia Stakes over the straight mile at 5.00.

Son Of The Stars heads the betting here and he’s a worthy favourite after a cracking run at Newmarket on Guineas weekend. A tad keen early on, he didn’t handle The Dip well but travelled like a serious tool and it’s no surprise to see he’s been really popular in the market.

However, 7/1 is a touch on the skinny side in a race of this nature and the one I think the market has underestimated is Roger Varian’s HORROOB at 25/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4,5).

First reserve when the final declarations came through, the withdrawal of Sea Fox early on Wednesday ensured his participation and I’m surprised the market hasn’t reacted accordingly.

Highly progressive on the all-weather at Lingfield this spring, Horroob was sent off at 4/1 for a hot Goodwood handicap on May 27 and he ran a blinder in fourth after being handed the widest draw of all in 12.

Keen on the outside in the early stages, he was never in an ideal position and lost further ground on the bend. After all that he was still travelling well two out but was too far back to land a serious blow, staying on nicely in the circumstances to take fourth.

He certainly shaped as if he was still progressing and it was just his second start on turf. He’s bred for the extra furlong on his dam’s side and there’s every chance a strong pace on this straight track will see him put in a career-best performance.

There are plenty of similarly unexposed, progressive types in this race and judging which one is improving at the fastest rate isn’t easy. But watching his Goodwood effort, when plenty went against him, I’m sure we’re dealing with a rapid improver here.

His draw in 29 looks ideal, too. Again, all of the early pace seems to be drawn centrally to stands’ side with Thomas Cranmer (14), Medieval (21), Rusumaat (25), Hyde Park (26) and Via Serendipity (28) looking the most likely to force the gallop.

With that in mind Horroob should get a nice tow into the race and, off a low weight with Andrea Atzeni doing the steering, he looks a decent each-way bet at 25s.

Finally, Mark Johnston’s team look certain to ensure the King George V Stakes is run at a really good clip and such a scenario will suit the stable’s MISTER MANDURO who is worth backing at 16/1 (General).

This horse ran a blinder in a good handicap at Bath on April 14 where he was just beaten on the line with highly progressive rivals such as stablemate Permian and unlucky Epsom second Emenem in behind.

That was his last go over a mile and a half, but while he flopped over 10 furlongs subsequently he ran well stepped up to 1m6f at Musselburgh last time where he finished a close-up fourth.

He certainly wasn’t lacking for stamina that day and he has been left in the Queen’s Vase on Friday as well, but Thursday’s handicap looks a much more sensible option.

Stamina looks like it could be a key asset in this race anyway, and he looks just the sort that will thrive over a strongly-run mile and a half in a race his stable have won on five previous occasions.

Sky Bet Price Promise

*Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Value Bet column with guaranteed advertised prices for at least 15 minutes from 6pm the evening of publication.

Click here to place your bets at Sky Bet

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +396.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

Click here for full Value Bet record

Posted at 1700 BST on 21/06/17.