Free racing tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview and recommended bets for Cambridgeshire day at Newmarket
Dubai Mirage has a very real chance of winning the bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap, according to Matt Brocklebank. He has three value selection for Saturday.
Recommended bets, Saturday September 26
1pt win Crownthorpe in 2.05 Haydock at 16/1
1pt win Umm Kulthum in 2.25 Newmarket at 8/1
1pt e.w. Dubai Mirage in 3.35 Newmarket at 28/1
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The forecast remains unsettled at Newmarket heading into the weekend and, with the worst of Saturday’s weather expected around the time of the bet365 Cambridgshire Handicap you’re going to want side with horses who at the very least handle some ease in the ground.
The past two winners have been progressive three-year-olds and, after the same stable’s successful Nahaarr plunge in the Ayr Gold Cup last week, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another significant raceday gamble develop on the William Haggas-trained Ilaraab.
He’s quite lucky to have scraped into the race this year – he didn't actually need the 4lb penalty he picked up in winning at Newbury last weekend – but is clearly on a steep upward curve and has all the tools needed for the test having won over further, including on a soft surface.
This will be his fourth run in a little over six weeks, however, and it’s a lot to ask of a horse who came into the year unraced as a two-year-old.
That’s the only minor quibble, along with the cramped price now, and the relatively fresh and equally unexposed three-year-old DUBAI MIRAGE (Hills 28/1 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6) looks the one to be on.
His one run on officially soft ground came in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, when finishing only midfield having raced on the unfavourable part of the track, but there was clearly a fair amount of cut underfoot when he absolutely bolted up, despite hanging, at Haydock on August 8.
That was his comeback run after being gelded on the back of Ascot and it appeared to have improved him no end. The handicapper agreed, bumping him up 10lb to 97, but he was a well-backed favourite at Sandown subsequently off the revised rating so it's fair to assume there’s still room for manoeuvre, something you’d imagine would be the case given his superb pedigree.
He was only third at Sandown but didn’t get a strong pace to aim at – quite the opposite in fact – and the staying-on effort behind highly-regarded and enterprisingly-ridden Raaeq can definitely be marked up.
Saeed bin Suroor has turned to 5lb claimer Stefano Cherchi once before and the move proved successful with Gifts Of Gold winning at Chelmsford the other week, so it looks quite significant he takes over in the saddle on Dubai Mirage as the jockey bids to enhance his perfect 1-1 record for the Godolphin trainer.
Cherchi looks to be developing quite quickly into the latest weighing room ‘find’ and seems sure to get a good pace to aim at in this unique nine-furlong cavalry charge.
Being drawn right out on the wing in 29 may not look ideal at first glance, indeed it could clearly end up being detrimental to his chance should everything head for the far rail, though that doesn’t look likely as there is early pace middle-to-high courtesy of Zhui Feng (15), Bear Force One (17) and Majestic Dawn (25), while it’s also worth noting the past four Cambridgeshire winners broke from stalls 29, 21, 29 and 28.
The Group One Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes is one to really relish, although I’m not entirely convinced there’s anything in the field to fully scare Lucky Vega, who has already struck at the highest level over six furlongs in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh.
He didn’t get the rub of the green in the seven-furlong National Stakes subsequently and is going to enjoy dropping back to sprinting anyway so he’s very much the one to beat, for all Minzaal, Method and Supremacy bring great potential.
Lucky Vega was 4/1 on Friday morning but that’s quickly dried up and he’s now getting towards his rightful position at the top of the market, so is passed over.
The Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes revolves around Dandalla and whether or not some of these rivals may have caught up with her during her spell on the sidelines after rather scrambling home at Newmarket’s July Festival.
She is the form horse here, of course, but looks a little more susceptible to a turn-up than Lucky Vega and it could be worth chancing Richard Fahey’s UMM KULTHUM at the odds (8/1 Sky Bet, bet365).
Her form already ties in quite closely with a few of these rivals and if the favourite doesn’t quite fire then she looks capable of stepping up to the plate.
It’s a quick turnaround from Ayr last weekend but the filly ended up winning ears pricked with loads still in the tank, having looked in trouble at halfway, so she’s evidently got a very serious engine and it probably didn't take much out of her.
Runner-up in Scotland was Scarlet Bear, who had finished third behind Happy Romance and Alcohol Free in the Dick Poole at Salisbury, while Umm Kulthum didn’t seem to be suited by York when a running-on third behind Miss Amulet and Sacred – who both reoppose here – in the Lowther Stakes.
She simply got going too late in the day on the speed-favouring Knavesmire, Miss Amulet getting first run and scampering away, but there was loads to like about the way Umm Kulthum kept finding in the final furlong and she’s clearly a quick learner after what she produced in the Firth Of Clyde.
She’s going to have to be, and does need to improve again on Saturday, but they’re nowhere near the bottom of the daughter of Kodiac just yet and she should thrive over a stiff six furlongs with a spot more rain around.
CROWNTHORPE (16/1 General) looks another Fahey runner worth getting on side in Haydock’s Close Brothers Handicap.
Top weight Key Victory has never been a particularly reliable performer, especially on home soil, and Danyah has been beaten twice since being raised 10lb for his June victory at Doncaster.
So it looks ripe for a bet and Crownthorpe, a son of Monsieur Bond who will welcome any more rain they get in the north west, is starting to look well handicapped.
He landed a well-contested (0-100) handicap at York on soft ground last October from a mark of 91 and is back off 92 here having been eased for two lowly efforts since resuming this time around.
He’s been purposefully kept back for this time of the year and while he was fresh from a 50-day break when winning at York, he's typically needed a run or two to put him right fitness-wise in the past.
He's got some good Haydock form to his name already, including a nose defeat to Alemaratalyoum two years ago, and he’s the sole confirmed hold-up horse in this so could find things falling his way late on if back to anything like his best.
Posted at 1700 BST on 25/09/20
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