Melbourne Cup tips: Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet preview
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the Lexus Melbourne Cup in the early hours and fancies one of the European contenders to come home with the coveted prize.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Ashrun in Melbourne Cup (0400 GMT Flemington) at 22/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
In spite of everything, it looks a potentially overwhelming European travelling contingent in line for the Lexus Melbourne Cup and the locals will do well to hang onto the trophy.
Anthony Van Dyck must be one of the classiest raiders to compete at Flemington and he looked to at least match his Grand Prix de Paris-winning form when going down narrowly to Verry Elleegant after a really wide trip in the Caulfield Cup.
Two miles on quick, fresh ground looks a really interesting poser for the son of Galileo, who seemed to take a bit of time to fully recover from the exertions of his Derby victory at Epsom last June.
He’s clearly back on song now with untapped potential over staying distances, while stablemate Tiger Moth has been wrapped in cotton wool since his head second to Santiago in the Irish Derby at the end of June and looked bound for greater things when readily mopping up a Leopardstown Group 3 over Irish Champions Weekend in September.
O’Brien is still seeking his first win in the great race whereas his son, Joseph, can probably still taste his success with Rekindling from three years ago.
The latter sends back Master Of Reality and Twilight Payment, two really strong stayers who will break from good-looking stalls next to one another in 11 and 12 respectively.
They both have their quirks and perhaps Master Of Reality was a shade unfortunate not to emerge on top 12 months ago when hitting the front a fair way out looking full of running, only to wilt and wander close home.
He’s a big threat once again off a similar weight, while the really dour stayer Twilight Payment is a son of Teofilo whose progeny generally perform extremely well in Australian conditions, and he’ll be ridden by a thriving Jye McNeil.
The 25-year-old jockey is a fairly late bloomer but has really kicked on in 2020 after breaking into the big-time Down Under last season and those who subscribe to Ben Coley’s nappy-factor theory in the world of golf should probably know he recently became a father - which may go some way to explaining his new-found confidence.
Last year’s Cup also featured Surprise Baby who was arguably the eyecatcher of the lot after breaking from 20 and making good, late headway to ultimately take fifth.
He ran a perfectly good prep last month in the Turnbull Stakes won by Verry Elleegant – subsequent conqueror of Anthony Van Dyck at Caulfield – with Finche third and last year’s Victoria Derby winner Warning sixth.
The latter again fared a bit better than the bare result when 12th in the Caulfield Cup since, but he’s had to pass a vet’s check in the run-up which is off-putting, despite the big price (40/1 generally).
For the selection, I’ll circle back to the European team and classy German operator ASHRUN, who in contrast has reportedly come out of his Hotham Stakes win three days ago exceptionally well.
Trainer Andreas Wohler – who won the Melbourne Cup with Protectionist for the same Australian Bloodstock partnership in 2014 – admits his hand was forced as he needed to win to sneak into the final field but, taken in isolation, it was a seriously useful performance.
Held up out the back by Kerrin McEvoy, Ashrun came fast and late to mow down two horses who had sat relatively close to the front in a 12-furlong Group 3 handicap run an absolute crawl, and he’ll definitely benefit from returning to a longer trip.
The lightly-raced son of Authorized was blown away by Ghaiyyath when tried at the highest level on home soil last season but he’s come close to winning good Group races in Europe this year, including when second to Call The Wind at Deauville in August.
He’s seemingly acclimatised really well to life in Aus, having been finishing better than anything when fourth in the Geelong Cup earlier in October, and while the big one will be his third quick race and his second in three days, he’s not had a busy campaign at all and still only has 12 lifetime starts to his name. There should be more to come from him.
Stall 24 will be seen as a stinker by many but there was only ever going to be one tactic used no matter the draw and Declan Bates – who comes in for McEvoy who’s on board the favourite – will be angling for another sweeping burst down the wide outside.
With such a low weight, an upwardly mobile profile and recent form that needs to be marked up given the way the races panned out, Ashrun looks the bet at 22/1.
Posted at 1500 BST on 02/10/20
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.