Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Dave Massey

Recommended Bets

1pt win Shady Oaks in 3.03 Fakenham at 33/1 (minimum 28/1)

3.03 Fakenham - Shady Oaks

I’ve always been inclined to throw a few quid at one that’s got pretty moderate form figures if I think that it’s in the right race and different tactics could produce a better effort. Yes, there’s always the chance it’ll blow up in your face and those tactics may not come off, and the horse in question ends up with another P by its name, but equally it can land you a winner at a good price when it does, and SHADY OAKS fits the bill here.

Connections probably gave a bit too much away when he finished third to some much higher-rated rivals in a pair of novice chases early on, and as such his handicap mark was too high to begin with, but the handicapper was soon relenting and he now races in a 0-100 for the first time.

However, as his mark has come down, he’s looked lazy and has taken plenty of stoking along, but he’s capable when the mood takes him, as demonstrated by his five lengths third to Lord Condi at Southwell in June from an 11lb higher mark.

Two miles and forcing tactics might be just what is required and he gets the chance to show that today. He comes here after a wind operation too and although he’s very much all-or-nothing, quotes of 25/1 and bigger are an insult to his basic ability. There’s a race in him, and it might be this one.

12.20 Southwell - Dark Side Dream

There’s a couple at Southwell that we were with last time, and both are at least worth a mention, although whether we can recommend them as full bets at the current prices is another thing.

DARK SIDE DREAM caught the eye after his effort behind two much higher-rated rivals in a novice here last month, and off the back of that he travelled very strongly in his first handicap here at the start of the month, trading odds-on in running and only finding the in-form Lord Of The Glen too good.

This is just as competitive, so given we were getting 10-1 for our money there, you’d be wanting bigger than the current 9-2 that we are getting (I’d be wanting 6-1 as a minimum) although I will say there is likely to be a strongly contested pace in the race and we do expect him to travel strongly just off that pace once again, so he should get the race run to suit.

2.50 Southwell - Grand Pianola

You’d not think that 1m3f at Southwell would differ from 1½m all that much, but one thing Rory and I have noticed over the years is that you can often stretch a miler’s stamina out to the shorter trip, but not the longer. It’s something Roy Bowring exploited with one or two of his a few years back and although the track has evolved since then, the point remains that 1m3f is more of a speed test that you’d imagine.

That consideration gives GRAND PIANOLA a chance of reversing course form with Grimsthorpe Castle on recent running. The selection travelled well in front, as he had on his previous start, but found the strong-staying Grimsthorpe Castle too powerful in the finish. The latter probably finds that trip a minimum and we would view the drop in distance as a bigger issue than it would appear at first glance.

The formbook says that Grimsthorpe Castle should be favourite, given Mick Appleby’s runner has run at least as well when beaten in a photo here on Sunday. He is penalised for his win, but as his official mark going into his race last week was 43 and he ran off the minimum rating of 46 in that contest, he’s only 3lb worse off for a 3¼-length beating. That will make him attractive to weights-and-measures punters, And I see his price contracting initially. If so, Grand Pianola ought to drift correspondingly.

• Preview posted at 1800 GMT on 16/11/2020