Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster David Massey

Recommended bets, Tuesday October 27

1pt e.w. Liamba in 4.50 Southwell at 12/1 (minimum price 8/1)

1pt win Navajo Star in 7.50 Southwell at 12/1 (minimum price 8/1)

1pt win Bevsboy in 4.25 Catterick at 10/1 (minimum price 13/2)

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Liamba To Bounce Back

By no means an easy handicap to solve, with four of the 11 runners last time out winners, but maybe the time has come for Liamba to bounce back to form on surface she loves.

The key might be the return of the visor, which was missing when she was fourth to Xtara here on her latest start (over 7f) but has been on for her last three wins, all of which have come over this C&D. She’s just been a pound or two too high since winning back-to-back handicaps here last winter but is now back down on a winning mark. With a near-guaranteed strong pace assured, with at least four of her opponents wanting a share of the lead, she can sit just off them before William Buick delivers her late on the scene to score.

Navajo To Star Back On Sand

2m around here is a proper stamina test, and it’ll be dial-a-distance stuff between first and last, that’s for sure. Thawry is the one with good recent course form to call upon, but it’s over 12f, so from a 10lb higher mark than for that win, and an extra 4f to travel, he’s worth taking on, given the early prices make him the clear favourite.

Down the bottom, Lucky Robin might catch the eye of a few, as he’s on a good mark compared to his hurdles exploits, but he has no form on the surface and it’s a guess as to whether he’ll take to it. Londonia is capable and Sea Of Mystery, being a C&D winner, is obvious, but at the prices it’s Najavo Star that catches the eye.

Her only run over C&D came in a better class race than this, finishing a 7½l fourth, and from a 13lb higher mark as well. Three moderate runs this year are all fairly easy enough to forgive - she’d have needed the first two after a year off to get fit, and last time at Chelmsford it all went wrong, as she collided with the rail and came back with a wound on her left fore.

Her stamina is guaranteed, having won five times at the trip (all on the all-weather) and if she bounces back to something like her best, she has chances here.

If you take the view that Thawry might not stay, then the Najavo Star-Londonia reverse forecast makes some appeal at the prices, but of course the market could look very different come tomorrow night.

Bev Can Be The Boy

A weak affair, much as it was last year when Bevsboy won a division of it, and he’s got every chance of doing so again.

Essentially much of his form is very moderate, but all you need to do is cherry pick the Catterick form on soft ground out, and suddenly it looks a whole lot better - 124. That fourth came last time out when he wasn’t best placed off the home turn, and it was slightly more competitive event than this anyway, so better can be expected here. Back down to last year’s winning mark, and has every chance of doubling his overall tally today.

Bombed Out Last Time, But Could Bounce Back

Rory was quite keen on B Fifty Two last time, but he ran poorly, highlighting his inconsistency. He seems to need the mud these days over sprint trips, and he relished the heavy conditions when making all over 7f here in August. He was been well beaten on his last two starts, and he seemed to drop the bridle when messed about a little last time at Redcar. Prior to that, he was third over C&D despite being poorly positioned, and had to do his running up the centre of the track in the straight. He can be marked up on that, and with the out-of-sorts Trevie Fountain inside him here, his race hinges on being able to bag the favoured outside rail from what should be the ideal draw.

For a horse with a patchy profile, B Fifty Two has a lifetime record on soft or heavy going at 6f/7f which makes impressive reading for each-way punters, running eight times, winning once, and being placed on all but one of those outings, five of which came here at Catterick.

Preview posted 1800 BST on 26/10/2020

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