Free racing tips: Best bets for Thursday at Warwick

Racing betting tips: Thursday, December 31

1pt e.w Happy And Content in 12.16 Warwick at 28/1 (minimum 25/1)

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Happy and glorious: 12.16 Warwick

As we come to the turn of the year, some of us look to update our notions of jockeys and trainers worth following – a year is a long time in sport, after all, and there are one or two names which would not have caused a flicker this time last year which I now find myself paying particular attention to.

One such trainer for the years ahead, I believe, is Sam Drinkwater. Drinkwater appeared to be going places a few years ago when scoring with the 50/1 shot Tour Des Champs at Cheltenham, but the death of that useful chaser from colic a little while later rocked the small Worcestershire yard. It’s taken a while for Drinkwater to find anything in that league, but he has been doing well with more modest performers, and still shows a healthy profit at SP for those who back his horses blind. That is despite enduring some bad luck, with runners this season being carried out, clipping heels when travelling well, and falling when about to dot up.

Drinkwater is of interest in my view on account of his record with handicap debutants. It’s always interesting to note which trainers can squeeze improvement out of their horses when first qualified for handicaps, but the methods of the BHA mean that horses who finish out of the frame tend to be rated well above the form they’ve actually shown in qualifying, and backing those starting out in handicaps blind will lead to big losses. Spotting the small number of trainers who can buck that trend is rewarding in both the short and longer term – it’s blithely assumed that most trainers are well versed in laying horses out for maximum reward, but it was Barney Curley who once said “most trainers wouldn’t know if tomorrow is Wednesday or Thursday”.

Drinkwater may be among the game’s little fish, and his runners are often priced up with the rags, but his strike-rate with first-time handicappers in his career to date is three wins and as many places from 19 runners, and the most interesting point about that healthy record is the prices. Those numbers include winners at 33/1 and 40/1 and a couple of places at 16/1, while Nightboattoclyro was backed from 16/1 into 9/2 when scoring at Doncaster earlier in the month. He runs two in the opener at Warwick on Thursday, with Coachella Green the better fancied having been one of those 16/1 shots to be placed on her latest start.

That effort gives her place claims, but HAPPY AND CONTENT (12.16) is of equal interest now tried in a hood. The daughter of Fame And Glory is out of a mare who landed a notable gamble over hurdles at Fontwell for Paul Flynn a few years ago, and she is bred to improve for experience. She raced very freely when running her best race at Ludlow last month, and the fitting of a hood is a positive on that evidence. She was below form last time, but that run came quickly and qualifies her for a lowly mark.

The second at Ludlow was far from disgraced in a Listed event at Taunton yesterday, while the Drinkwater team are in better form than the figures would suggest, as Cup Of Coffee was set to score at Catterick on Monday but for falling two out when tanking along. That mare was a 28/1 shot and ignored in the betting, but it would be folly to keep ignoring the runners from this yard.

Available at 33/1 in a few places (Betfair, Paddy Power, BetVictor), we'll go 28s and five places at Sky Bet and Betfred.

Published at 1810 GMT on 30/12/20

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