Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for day three of Royal Ascot

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Royal Ascot

2.30 0.5 pt ew – 6 Loom 16/1

Whistlejacket is an obvious favourite for the Norfolk following his win in a fast time at the Curragh, but the events of both the Coventry and the Queen Mary would hardly dissuade anyone from seeking out a bigger-priced alternative and enough bookmakers are paying out on four places to encourage an each-way bet. The one that catches the eye from that point of view is Loom for Richard Fahey, who won this race in 2021 and 2022 and had the second last year and in 2019. It was only a Ripon novice that Loom won last time, but he did it quite strikingly, picking up sharply late on to run down Artagnan, who runs in the Windsor Castle. The fourth from that race did his bit for the form when a comfortable winner at Hamilton on Wednesday afternoon, so there’s a fair bit of encouragement to think that Loom has the useful level of ability that’ll be required here, with a strongly-run race at a stiff track likely to be ideal judged on how he finished off at Ripon.

3.05 1 pt ew – 6 Gilded Water 13/2

This is extremely difficult with loads of interesting three-year-olds on show. In such circumstances it’s a good idea to let Timeform ratings point the way and Gilded Water, who’s 3 lb clear at the top of a tight set of figures, makes obvious appeal bidding to make it consecutive royal winners of this race. He’s progressed in big chunks on his three runs to date, having started out in the Wood Ditton just two months ago, and he really was very impressive when powering away from his rivals to record a wide-margin win at Chepstow at the end of May. An opening mark of 92 looks lenient judged on the bare facts of that effort, and that’s without accounting for Gilded Water’s scope for more progress, not least as the way he galloped out that day suggests he’ll relish stepping up to a mile and a half.

3.45 1 pt – 6 Kalpana 5/1

Diamond Rain was mightily impressive at Newbury last time and has the potential to put plenty more improvement on top of form that already comes close to setting the standard in the Ribblesdale. She is very much priced accordingly, however, and there’s a rock-solid alternative in the shape of second favourite Kalpana. Her wide-margin win of a traditionally competitive handicap at the Craven meeting was an astonishing effort, and she more than backed it up when second – a mile clear of the rest – in the Pretty Polly back at Newmarket at the start of May. It’s true to say that race hasn’t yet worked out, but the subsequent defeats of both the winner and third were simply too bad to be true, and the timefigure, which remains one of the best of the year among the three-year-olds, is a compelling reason to give the form another chance. The way Kalpana stuck to her task that day is strong evidence that she’ll be suited by this longer trip, and if she can find a bit more progress then it’ll take something really smart to beat her.

4.25 1 pt – 9 Gregory 11/2

It’s hard to escape the conclusion that a top-form Kyprios will repeat his 2022 Gold Cup success, but there are sufficient doubts over whether he’s capable of quite that level of form to justify taking him on at short odds. After all, he’s had just four outings over the last two seasons due to injury lay-offs and will be encountering much firmer ground than for a long time, too. The one we’re happy to take him on with is the sole four-year-old Gregory. This age group has a splendid record in the Gold Cup over the last decade or so and it’s patently obvious that Gregory is the sole runner in the race with the potential for appreciable improvement, only six races into his career and completely unexposed beyond a mile and three-quarters. Admittedly, you never really know whether a horse is going to relish this far until they’ve actually proved it, but Gregory has for a while been shaping as though he’s crying out for two miles plus, tapped for speed having been patiently ridden before staying on again behind Giavellotto in the Yorkshire Cup on his return to action last month. We expect him to be ridden more prominently with that outing behind him and it’s worth remembering that, Kyprios aside, the current bunch of stayers are exposed as a pretty average bunch.   

5.05 1 pt – 3 Follow Me 14/1 general & 23 Mickley 14/1

With bookmakers profits on this race again going to charity, there are only four places on offer each-way, so taking a couple against the field win only seems the best play. In racecard order, Follow Me is our first bet and he’s looked most progressive for current connections having been bought for €170,000 last autumn, winning both of his races this spring, the most recent being a  handicap at the Curragh in May. Although winning by just three-quarters of a length, he was value for plenty extra, having to switch a couple of times before squeezing through on the rail late on. He’s already proven at 1m and the way he travels suggests a big-field and strong pace will suit at least as well.

We also want to keep Mickley on side, who has created an excellent impression in winning both of his starts this year. The latter of those was in a handicap at Doncaster in which he recorded an excellent time, and the form is already starting to work out. Love Billy Boy who had some solid form coming into that Doncaster contest, finished only fourth but came out and won at Chester next time. Like Follow Me, Mickley is a strong traveller who will be well suited by a strong pace in a big field and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t climb a fair fit further up the ratings than his current BHA mark of 90.

5.40 1 pt – 7 King’s Gambit 7/4

There’s plenty of listed and pattern race on form in the Hampton Court, and even a classic runner-up in the shape of First Look, but King’s Gambit, who lines up following a handicap win, looks the one to beat. It wasn’t just any handicap that he won, as the London Gold Cup at Newbury is traditionally one of the hottest races of its type run all year with numerous subsequent pattern-race winners on its roll of honour. The latest renewal, which was run in a fast time, is already working out well, and King’s Gambit stormed away to win it by four lengths, matching the winning margin recorded by subsequent Champion Stakes winner Bay Bridge back in 2021. That form might actually be good enough to win this – King’s Gambit tops the Timeform ratings – but it would be a surprise if he doesn’t prove capable of a fair bit better still, which could well make him tough to beat.

6.15 0.5 pt ew – 10 Tacarib Bay 40/1, 0.5 pt – 14 Alzahir 25/1, 0.5 pt 5 – Carrytheone 20/1

It would come as no surprise if English Oak won this, he’s the Timeform top-rated and a Horse In Focus after all, but he’s generally a 4/1 shot against 28 rivals and we’re happy enough to let him win at that price, especially as there are some potentially well-treated lurkers in opposition. In our opinion Tacarib Bay might be the most interesting of them all at the prevailing odds. He’s got a touch of class about him, winning in listed company late last year and though he’s underperformed since, the handicapper has been kind and he comes here with a BHA mark below 100 for the first time in his life. Although yet to win in headgear, some of his best efforts have come in it, so the refitting of cheekpieces could spark a revival while it’s worth noting he’s run some of his best races at this track in big fields, finishing third in the Balmoral as a three-year-old, while his sixth over C&D in last year’s International (from 4 lb higher) can be massively upgraded given he was comfortably best of the thirteen that raced in his group. His trainer has won two of the last four runnings of this, Witch Hunter causing a 50/1 shock last year and Tacarib Bay looks a big price to repeat the trick.

We’re also inclined to take a couple of others win only from higher draws. Carrytheone can make a mess of the start, as he did when losing all chance in the Victoria Cup over C&D earlier in the season, but he put that right next time in a race at Newmarket that he had no right to win from the position he was in, also having to overcome trouble. He’s only 2 lb higher because of the bunched finish and can go well if in the same form. Given the prices and field size, we can also afford a third string to our bow and Alzahir is a fascinating contender for the David O’Meara team. The booking of Daniel Tudhope catches the eye given he could also have ridden Fresh and there’s a suspicion a race like this might have been a long-term target. He’s a half-brother to Suedois who did really well for the same connections and after edging down the weights, he made a perfectly satisfactory return when fourth behind Percy’s Lad at Chester last time. He has sometimes been a bit free over further and it’s not difficult to envisage a well-run race at this trip playing to his strengths. 

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