Timeform TV Focus: ITV racing tips for Cheltenham, Doncaster and Newbury on Saturday

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Cheltenham

1.10 0.5 pt – 3 Lisnamult Lad

It’s no surprise to see Guard Your Dreams and Marv Michael heading the betting but that seems as much down to last-time-out wins as it does any compelling claims, with the former primed for Warwick yet scrambling home and the latter asked a bigger question than when dominating a weakish maiden under an attacking ride. Both have scope for better, but so too does Lisnamult Lad at much longer odds that seem to more than factor in concerns over his jumping. It was a blunder three out that denied Lisnamult Lad a place at Kilbeggan last time, but he’d handled Galway without a problem when a close fourth in a maiden at the Galway Festival prior to that and it doesn’t take much digging to find some useful hurdling form on these shores, giving 7 lb and a clear beating to Pyffo at Ludlow last season and, more recently, outstayed by the thriving course specialist Tommie Beau at Cartmel from a BHA mark of 131 (just 3 lb higher here) in the spring.

1.45 No bet advised

Another theoretically good-quality novice – this time over hurdles – at the meeting that has attracted just one British runner from a declared field of five. In fairness, Hauraki Gulf’s chasing form suggests he’s no forlorn hope to keep the prize at home with an encouraging return from a break over timber under his belt, though even his best is short of what it normally takes to win an average running of this race and none of the quartet of Irish raiders are standouts, either, with two of them – Fine Margin and Intense Approach – having spent as much time running in Britain as Ireland over hurdles so far. A race to swerve if ever there was one on such a busy weekend.

2.20 1 pt – 3 Vanillier

It’s a matter of months since Vanillier was understandably considered a big runner again in the Grand National, having rattled home to take second behind Corach Rambler the year before. Aintree didn’t go so well for him second time around, however, and the fact he’s starting this season in a staying handicap chase – he began 2023/24 in the Hilly Way over a grossly inadequate two miles – suggests a trainer well represented over the course of this opening Cheltenham fixture of the campaign has decided to shelve Grand National aspirations. Vanillier’s jumping can be a little low, and he’s also going to need luck and a strong pace to bring his stamina into play at a track that can be a struggle for those held up, but there’s little doubt he’s potentially well-in from an eased BHA mark of 148 and the presence of the likes of Kansas City Star and Unanswered Prayers gives hope he’ll get the set-up he’ll need. Potential is fairly thin on the ground by the looks of things and those that do possess some scope for better are priced accordingly.

2.55 1 pt e/w – 4 Gowel Road

It was to be assumed that things didn’t go smoothly for Gowel Road prior to last season considering he wasn’t seen after breaking his duck over fences in October 2022 until the following November. The fact he ran so well in fourth that day – in a traditionally strong staying handicap hurdle won by the ill-fated Slate Lane – reflects great credit on Gowel Road, therefore, but also opens up the possibility that things will be even better first time back this time around, having stood a full season of racing subsequently in 2023/24 that ended with another sound effort in defeat when sixth in the Pertemps Final at the Festival. He returns with his stable having been rolling back the years so far this autumn and he makes plenty of each-way appeal.

3.30 1 pt – 5 Givemefive

Even when a favourite clearly has plenty going for them and negative are hard to find in assessing their chance, the price of a standout rival causing an ‘upset’ are sometimes just too big to ignore, which very much looks the case in this four-year-old conditions’ hurdle. Granted, Dodger Long has thrived this season, but on the formbook his level is some way short of that set by Bottler’secret and Givemefive and the last-named of that trio looks the bet. Bottler’secret finished ahead of his reopposing rival at Punchestown, but Givemefive wasn’t himself that day and, with the odds-on favourite conceding 7 lb, there really isn’t as much between the pair as the market would suggest. Another bright start to the season for the promising Harry Derham furthers hopes Givemefive will be ready to raise his game, too, with a spin on the Flat behind him against his reappearing rival.

Doncaster

1.30 1 pt – 3 Bounty

A number of these have pattern form but it could be worth taking them on with Bounty, who made his debut only 4 weeks ago but looks a decidedly useful prospect on the evidence of both starts to date. A close second, clear of the rest, to another debutant on debut, he went one better impressively at Naas a fortnight later, in the style of one already ready for a step up in grade. Slightly softer ground oughtn’t pose a problem, while he’s been to the fore in both of his races and such tactics seemed the order of the day on Friday (plenty of his rivals have been held up of late).

2.05 1 pt – 9 Venture Capital

Plenty of regulars in this sort of event at the top of the Timeform adjusted ratings for this sprint handicap, and it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise were the likes of Aberama Gold or Jer Batt to prevail, but we’d rather side with a less-exposed one, and Venture Capital fits the bill nicely. Having won twice over 7f last autumn and begun this season over as far as 1m, he’s got better as he’s dropped in trip, with wins at Ayr over 6f and here over 5f both backed up by a good timefigure. With his form having a strong look as well – each of his last 3 runs have thrown up winners – he looks likely to give another very solid account with his yard still going nicely.

2.40 No Bet Advised

The final domestic Group 1 of the season has drawn a field long on potential and it looks sure to throw up at least one or 2 who go on to prove themselves very smart at 3. Wimbledon Hawkeye possesses slightly the best form over Delacroix as things stand, but that’s reflected in the betting and with several other imponderables throw in, it looks a race to sit back and learn from rather than get financially involved.

Newbury

3.10 1 pt – 5 Make You Smile

This looks quite a warm renewal of the Horris Hill, the 8 runners having won 16 races between them this year, and it’ll probably take a very useful effort to win it. There’s not much not to like about Benevento whose Flying Scotsman win – in a good timefigure – has been boosted by the third home The Waco Kid coming out and winning a Group 3 at Newmarket, but, while he’s the only one in the field to be gelded already, Make You Smile (a stablemate of The Waco Kid) could just have the most potential of the lot of these. His pretty taking debut success looks stronger now than it did at the time, the third and fourth – beaten 6½ and 7 lengths respectively – both running to a much higher level next time, and this race, back over the same C&D, may well have been the plan since then.

3.45 0.5 pt – 5 God’s Window

There isn’t a lot of obvious pace in this Group 3, and it’s entirely possible that Al Aasy will simply have too much speed for his rivals. That being said, he’s not really the sort of horse you want to be trusting at a short price on very bad ground, so we’re happy to take him on, and are looking towards the three-year-olds. Feigning Madness and Danielle have the scope to do better faced with this sort of test, but both are shorter than the formbook would dictate, whereas God’s Window is the outsider of the field on Friday afternoon and looks worth chancing at that. He’s had the misfortune of coming up against Kalpana twice of late, and while admittedly he was some way adrift of Al Aasy at Ascot last time, the more testing ground here could well help him to bridge that gap when considering this weekend last year he finished a close third in the Group 1 Futurity at Doncaster on heavy ground, that form certainly none too shabby.

You can access the TV Focus selections and rationale at 5pm the evening before racing for £7.50 on the Timeform website

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