John Ingles provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Wednesday.
Night Bear to continue stable’s flying start to 2025
No stable has started the New Year on the all-weather in quite the same form as Tony Carroll’s. Having trained more than a hundred Flat winners in a season for the first time in his career in 2024, Carroll has 11 on the board already this year, more than any other trainer, and currently leads the way on prize money too. Admittedly, that’s from a lot more runners than any other yard, but the stable’s strike rate is still an excellent 22% this year and backing all its runners from January 1 would have yielded a £19.53 profit to a £1 stake.
After three winners on Saturday (one at 18/1) and a 12/1 winner at Wolverhampton on Monday, it’s a quieter day for the yard on Wednesday with just the two runners at each of the all-weather meetings. Pick of those is Night Bear in Southwell’s 11-furlong handicap (13:08) with Neil Callan having his first ride for the stable this year.
That looks significant because Callan has twice been successful from his three previous rides on the eight-year-old, including when they teamed up for his most recent win at Brighton last June. Night Bear had a six-month break before two runs at Southwell in December and was back to his best when a keeping-on third behind Gold Aura last time. A course winner, he can go well again off the same mark here.
Don’t Rightly Know one to note for champion jockey
Despite the five-runner field, the most valuable event on Newbury’s card, the Charlie Nugent Memorial Mares’ Chase (15:35), looks a competitive listed event for mares over three miles. Heading the weights is the smart Fantastic Lady who beat the likes of Ga Law and Hitman when signing off with a win in the Oaksey Chase at Sandown last season and was back to form in a similar event to this when runner-up over a shorter trip at Doncaster last time. Apple Away is another carrying a penalty, having won a similar event at Perth last spring, while the youngest member of the field Lady Balko comes into this in top form having run up a hat-trick of wins in handicaps during December.
But the most interesting mare here is Polly Gundry’s Don’t Rightly Know, a likeable type who is having just her second start over fences despite having recently turned ten and looks sure to improve, as denoted by the Timeform 'small p' attached to her rating. Very lightly raced prior to last season when she wasn’t out of the first three in six starts over hurdles, the rangy Don’t Rightly Know looked a natural on her chasing debut when returning in a handicap at Exeter last month. Making all the running and jumping superbly, she put up a useful effort in winning by ten lengths.
Nick Scholfield was in the saddle on that occasion, but champion Harry Cobden takes the ride this time. He’s had just two rides for Gundry in the past, including when finishing runner-up on Don’t Rightly Know in a handicap hurdle at Newbury last January but the partnership looks capable of going one better this time.
Gray Rainbow bred to relish longer trip at Kempton
Kempton stages the first mile and a half handicap of the year for three-year-olds (20:00) and while it’s only a class 6 contest for horses who have shown just modest form at best to date, some of these are stepping up markedly in trip and are bred to improve for the increased test of stamina.
A couple in particular make appeal on pedigree and have the Timeform 'small p', including Richard Hannon’s Gemmari who didn’t finish any closer than seventh in his three starts late last year. However, he ran his best race when stepped up to 11 furlongs here last month and that’s very much in keeping with the stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree. He’s out of the smart mare Gravitation who won the Lillie Langtry Stakes over a mile and three quarters and is herself out of a half-sister to Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory.
Preference, though, is for the filly Gray Rainbow from the in-form stable of James Owen and wearing cheekpieces for her handicap debut. Like Gemmari, she failed to make much impact in her three all-weather outings late last year but all of those were over a mile. By Derby winner Masar, the extra half-mile here is bound to suit as her useful dam Under The Rainbow won the Zetland Stakes at two and made the frame in numerous good races over further, including when fourth in the Chester Cup. The best of her winners is smart all-weather stayer Watersmeet whose wins included the Marathon on All-Weather Finals day. With stamina like that in her pedigree, Gray Rainbow is sure to improve and can get off the mark in a modest contest.
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