Timeform Daily View | Wednesday preview and tips
By Tony McFadden
19:00 · TUE October 15, 2024
Tony McFadden provides an overview of the key things to note on the racing front on Wednesday.
Three points of interest
Can Mr Alan win this race for the third year in a row?
Mr Alan has won Nottingham's extended mile-and-a-quarter handicap (15:45) for the past two seasons and holds solid claims in his hat-trick bid.
Mr Alan has proved consistent this term, running to a similar Timeform rating on all four starts at around a mile and a half. He clearly stays a mile and a half, though it should be noted that his three wins have all been achieved over shorter so he may appreciate dropping back in distance, particularly on testing ground.
He's been edging down the weights this season so is now only 1 lb higher than when a narrow winner of this event 12 months ago, so he looks set to give another good account of himself.
Doyle bidding to enhance Nottingham record
No jockey has had more winners at Nottingham since the start of 2019 than James Doyle whose tally of 27 places him six clear of the next best, Andrea Atzeni, in that timeframe.
Those 27 winners have come from only 101 rides, resulting in a superb strike rate of nearly 27% that compares favourably to the rider's overall record in that period of just over 18%.
Doyle heads to Nottingham on Wednesday for two rides for his retainer, Wathnan Racing, and his best chance looks to be aboard Solar Aclaim in the five-furlong handicap (16:50).
Solar Aclaim was out of form earlier in the campaign but a return to testing ground sparked a revival at Goodwood on his penultimate start and that victory took his record on ground deemed soft or heavy by Timeform to three wins and a second from four starts. He also ran well when third at Salisbury last time on ground considered good to soft by Timeform, and he should have conditions in his favour at Nottingham.
Conflated suited by terms of Punchestown Chase
The Grade 3 two-mile-seven-furlong chase at Punchestown (15:50) has attracted some high-profile Irish chasers with top-level winners Hewick, Minella Indo and Conflated all in action.
The conditions of the race mean that Hewick, winner of the King George last season must carry a 12 lb penalty, while Minella Indo, winner of this race 12 months ago, has a 6 lb penalty.
Conflated failed to win last season, though he looked as good as ever on occasions, including when not beaten far in the Champion Chase at Down Royal and the Melling Chase at Aintree, and he escapes a penalty here.
He needed the run on his return in this race last season, when last of five finishers under a full penalty, but he's the clear form pick on these terms and is 12 lb ahead on Timeform's weight-adjusted ratings. He'll take the beating if fit enough to do himself justice.
Tip of the Day
Orchard - 15:15 Nottingham
Flags: Horse In Focus, Hot Trainer
Orchard caught the eye when fourth at Kempton last month, running on well from an unpromising position inside the final couple of furlongs to pass plenty of rivals and only just miss out on third. That was his most encouraging effort yet and he goes handicapping with untapped potential, with the 'p' attached to his rating denoting that he is expected to improve. Trainer Warren Greatrex has done well with his two-year-olds this season - six of his last ten juveniles have finished at least placed - and Orchard looks interesting on his nursery debut.
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