Andrew Asquith presents the Timeform View of the key things to note on the racing front on Boxing Day.
Three points of interest
Constitution Hill vs Lossiemouth
It is another small-field renewal of the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (13:55), but this year’s edition has added spice as we are set to see Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth clash for the first time.
Where do we stand with Constitution Hill? It really is hard to say, as just a few weeks ago Nicky Henderson wasn’t sure whether he would actually make the Christmas Hurdle, but recent reports suggest he’s better than ever.
Constitution Hill has a massive form edge – he’s 12lb clear of Lossiemouth on Timeform weight-adjusted ratings – even with Willie Mullins’ star mare in receipt of 7lb, but how confident you can be that he will be close to his best on his return from 12 months off and off a truncated preparation is hard to gauge.
Lossiemouth, on the other hand, confirmed herself in top form with a smooth return to action in the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse earlier this month, breezing past Stayers’ Hurdle winner Teahupoo to score readily by just under four lengths.
Her last three wins have all come at around two and a half miles, but she has so much natural speed, the drop back to two miles isn’t expected to pose a problem, and we still don’t really know how good she is – she is the only runner in the field with the ‘Timeform small p’ attached to her rating, signifying she’s open to further improvement.
The bookmakers have the pair closely matched, with Lossiemouth slightly favoured. We'd say that is fair, given the uncertainty surrounding Constitution Hill, and siding with her is the safest option. It really is a mouth-watering clash and will hopefully be one to savour.
Is the King George heading back to Ireland again?
Ireland have taken the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (14:30) home in two of the last three years and Irish-trained horses once again have a strong hold on the race.
It is set to be the biggest field in the King George since Kauto Star recorded his fourth win in the race in 2009, and it is Spillane’s Tower who tops Timeform weight-adjusted ratings on the back of his excellent return behind the very promising Fact To File in the John Durkan at Punchestown last month.
He developed into a smart novice last season, winning three times, notably a Grade 1 event at Fairyhouse over two and a half miles and another Grade 1 over three miles at the Punchestown Festival.
Spillane's Tower improved in the region of 10lb when runner-up in the John Durkan, though, and also shaped as though he's ready for a return to three miles. He rather conceded first run to the principals approaching the straight, but he'd quickened well to press Fact To File by the time they'd landed over the last and had his chance from there.
That is the best form on offer in the King George and three miles round Kempton should be tailormade for him. He is a horse who is yet to reach the ceiling of his ability - he has the 'Timeform small p' attached to his rating - and is fancied to give trainer James Joseph Mangan one of his biggest successes to date.
Henderson holds strong hand in race he likes to target
The Ladbrokes Get Rewarded With Ladbucks Handicap Hurdle (15:40), which closes Kempton’s card on Boxing Day, is a race which Nicky Henderson has tasted success in, landing back-to-back renewals in 2020 and 2021, including one with Marie’s Rock.
He is once again well represented in this year’s edition, with Doddiethegreat, East India Express and In The Air all holding solid claims, but it could be the first-named who comes out on top.
Doddiethegreat defied an absence of two years when recording a second win in this sphere on his belated return at Ascot last season and he went on to shape better than the bare result on his next two starts.
He finished runner-up in a competitive handicap at Cheltenham next time and came from miles back when hitting the frame in the Betfair Hurdle afterwards, shaping as though he was ready for a return to further than two miles.
An early error put him on the backfoot in the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival, and he ultimately wasn’t able to make an impact, but it is also worth remembering that the Henderson horses were under a cloud that week, too.
Doddiethegreat is built to make up into an even better chaser, but he failed to make an impact on his debut over fences on his return at this course last month, jumping ponderously and altogether held back by his inexperience. Connections have clearly decided to pull up stumps on that route and now send him back over hurdles.
There is an air of unfinished business around him and he is fancied to prove himself well handicapped over a trip and on ground which will be perfect for him.
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