Timefigure analysis on Shadow Of Light Dewhurst success and more

Beckett has another nice prospect

The defection of The Lion In Winter removed a hefty chunk of interest from the Dewhurst, there were a couple of other performances during the week that had ‘Classic candidate’ written all over them.

Before I get to Newmarket, I’ll go back to Monday where less than 24 hours after winning the Arc with Bluestocking Ralph Beckett and Rossa Ryan teamed up again to land Pontefract’s feature event, a very valuable (for the track) novice for two-year-olds, with the very progressive Sir Dinadan.

Landing a timefigure on a pin for a two-year-old in heavy ground over a mile and a quarter in October isn’t easy given there is still some doubt as to exactly what the correct weight-for-age allowance should be (what isn’t in doubt is that the official, as with other distances for juveniles, is too lenient). But after considering several pieces of evidence I was quite happy a minimum of 85 was warranted with a 5lb uplift given his finishing sectional took his overall timerating up to 90 which still looks a minimum as he wasn’t anywhere near extended. He’d been pegged back by the seven-figure buy Silver Peak around Haydock’s sharp mile on his previous start but relished the increased emphasis on stamina here and a step up to Listed company looks on the cards.

Watching brief over Detain improvement

Two days later there were several juvenile performances of interest led perhaps by Detain who landed the second division of a seven-furlong novice at Kempton by seven lengths in a 92 timefigure. By the sire of the moment, in the sales ring at least, Wootton Bassett, out of a mare who has already bred the St Leger runner-up Arrest, Detain had already won a race at Kempton back in August in a modest 57 timefigure that ended up being upgraded to 101 after a 44lb sectional upgrade had been applied.

His connections clearly felt he needed a bit more teaching last week as he was sent straight to the front, albeit from a handy draw against largely inexperienced and significantly inferior rivals, yet instead of being eased down once the race was in the bag was ridden right out to the line, effectively showing his hand.

In the circumstances, I’d have expected more than the 5lb upgrade that Timeform were able to give him from three furlongs out or the slightly rosier 7lb upgrade that he could be credited with if using his last two-furlong sectionals, and his well-referenced 11.09 penultimate sectional was bettered by four horses in one of the later handicaps including one rated 82, albeit carrying a bit less weight. His next assignment is reportedly the Futurity at Doncaster for which he was put into the betting at 8/1, but, though he’ll stay a mile and his form figures make impressive reading, whether he really took the big step forward from his first race to his second that it might look on paper, I’m not convinced.

Clues for the future

Over at Nottingham, Arctic Voyage was one who did leave his debut just two weeks earlier at Newbury well behind when taking the six-furlong novice in the manner of a no-nonsense youngster, clearing right away in the closing stages to score by six and a half lengths in a 89 timefigure (no upgrade), but an even bigger eye-catching win was put up by Gethin in the Future Stayers series, this one named in honour of the Derby winner Oath who won at the track as a juvenile.

An extended mile at Nottingham in October in heavy ground is a searching test for a juvenile, but the son of Ghaiyyath out of a mare by Dalakhani who has already produced a smart winner looked to find it all coming easily to him, continuing to travel strongly even after taking up the running despite looking as green as the colours he was wearing. He ran each of the last five furlongs faster than any of his rivals according to the RaceIQ sectionals.

An 82 timefigure ends up getting upgraded to 96 after incorporating Timeform’s 14lb upgrade which is a very high figure first time out for one from the Owen Burrows yard and he’ll surely be taking in a Classic trial next year.

So too, surely, will Isambard Brunel who made all in the extended mile maiden at Navan, though he might yet be seen in the Futurity given he has an entry in that. He’d been beaten in his first two starts but that’s never necessarily a negative where his trainer Aidan O’Brien is concerned, and he appreciated the step back up in trip by pulling three and a half lengths clear once given the office.

An 81 timefigure is a fair level of achievement in itself, but a 21lb upgrade I calculated using the RaceIQ sectionals takes him to 102 and given his size and scope he might well end up being very smart.

Flower blooms at Newmarket

Newmarket’s two-day Cesarewitch meeting kicked off on Friday with a very interesting card featuring four pattern races, including the bet365 Fillies’ Mile in which Desert Flower (114) produced the best performance on the clock by a two-year-old filly this season, 1lb higher than the Babouche achieved in the Phoenix Stakes, 4lb better than Bedtime Story achieved in the Chesham Stakes (though whether she’d be able to reproduce that now is open to question) and 5lb better than Lake Victoria posted in the Cheveley Park.

Unbeaten in four starts now, this wasn’t her widest-margin win – that came on the July Course back in August – but was arguably her most impressive, not least her finishing effort from over a furlong out as she put four more lengths between her and the runner-up January than she had in the May Hill last time. A 101% finishing speed doesn’t allow for any sectional uplift, but her base time performance over the distance is historically very high – indeed, only two other fillies since 2015 have run to a timefigure of 114 or higher over a mile at two, the 1000 Guineas and Oaks winner Minding and the disappointing Pretty Gorgeous.

Minding was an impeccably-bred filly, of course, by Galileo out of Lillie Langtry and already the dam herself of St James’s Palace runner-up Henry Longfellow, while Pretty Gorgeous wasn’t being by Lawman out of a mare by the very modest grandsire Compton Place; Desert Flower, by Night Of Thunder out of a 112-rated mare, falls somewhere between the two, much nearer Minding than Pretty Gorgeous admittedly, and she looks to have plenty of size about her so the omens at least for now look positive.

Desert Flower wasn’t the only winning two-year-old filly on the card to impress on the clock; Coto de Caza posted a 108 when landing the Cornwallis, 3lb higher than the runner-up Grande Marques, a figure which has been bettered by winning fillies since 2010 in the race only by the subsequent Commonwealth Cup and Haydock Sprint Cup winner Quiet Reflection, the Nunthorpe winner Winter Power and Mrs Danvers who clearly had severe training issues in her next two seasons, running only twice.

Plenty to live up to there, then, for the winner, but connections of the runner-up who has improved with racing will fancy their chances of reversing placings should they meet again having raced on what looked the less favoured part of the track.

Merrily, the most exposed in the field, sprang a surprise in the Oh So Sharp Stakes, beating the highly-promising Cathedral with the rest three and a half lengths and more behind but a 96 timefigure and a 5lb upgrade for the winner (runner-up got just 1lb) suggests it was one of the lesser performances on the day. Verse Of Love was a visually impressive five-length winner of the ordinary opening maiden but ‘only’ ended up with 90 overall on the clock.

The sole Group race for older horses, the Challenge Stakes, was won comfortably by the French challenger Topgear who had dominated from the front when winning snuggly at Longchamp last time but his winning time wasn’t anything special compared with the two-year-old races over the same distance and there’s a good chance he benefitted from a typical French ‘autumn preparation’ against some rivals who were well below their best. His trainer said afterwards he thought he was unbeatable as a two-year-old, so it will be fascinating to see what he might achieve next year given he'll be staying in training, reportedly being kept to seven furlongs.

Shadow has it to prove after weak Dewhurst

So, what to make of the Dewhurst, one of four Group races on Newmarket’s Saturday card? Well, it wasn’t the easiest to assess from a timefigure perspective, that’s for sure, with some races taking place on more of (or completely along) what seemed to be the favoured stand rail than others. But putting all that aside, the latest Dewhurst after the withdrawal of The Lion In Winter still looked a substandard affair.

Eventual winner Shadow Of Light, who two weeks previously had won the Middle Park, had a 106 best timefigure in his top pocket going into the race, while his stablemate and challenger at the head of the betting, Ancient Truth, last seen winning the Superlative Stakes three months previously, pitched in with 100 while the best of the overall timeratings (incorporating sectional upgrades, remember) achieved by any of the other three – Seagulls Eleven in the Superlative – was no higher than 97.

That’s a collectively low entrance point for a race that usually requires a performance of 115 or so to win it and though Shadow of Light has been credited with that for now on form ratings, a 101 timefigure allied to 9lb upgrade making 110 overall still leaves him with something to prove on the clock; runner-up Expanded ran well for an overall timerating of 106 just a week on from his Curragh debut while Ancient Truth also improved his overall timerating to 107.

Winning rider William Buick was of the opinion afterwards, rightly in my opinion, that racing in what looked the slower group of three early on worked against Shadow Of Light, probably to the extent that he’s worth upgrading another 4lb or so, but even so it’s hard not to think The Lion In Winter would have won this with some ease.

The Autumn Stakes has been won by some decent sorts in recent years including Ancient Wisdom, Coroebus and One Ruler and the first two here, Delacroix and Stanhope Gardens, look up to scratch. The fact that the race was contested under the stand rail whereas plenty of others weren’t muddies the waters rather a lot, so a combined timerating of 116 for the winner and 118 for the runner-up might overstate their ability a bit. However, they were four lengths clear and being a Dubawi half-brother to recent Group 1 winner Grateful and a colt by Ghaiyyath from a smart family respectively they are worth the benefit of the doubt for now.

Starzintheireyes won the Zetland Stakes in a 100 timefigure, giving his trainer Ralph Beckett another possible for the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, while Lead Artist put up a high-class performance on form in the Darley Stakes (124) but coming in at just a combined 106 on the clock it looked a typical piece of ‘end-of-season’ form.

I had hoped to include a round-up of the best timefigures from the weekend's ‘jump season opener’ spread across Chepstow and Ffos Las but only two winning horses, Grandeur d’ Ame and Josh The Boss, managed timefigures greater than 130 with the former posting 137 and the latter 131. A very weak Grade 2 Persian War ending up going to a summer jumper in a 127 timefigure and I’ll wait until the season heats up a bit more before returning to the jumps.

Troy story

Finally, Lydia Hislop’s pressuring of Aidan O’Brien at Newmarket to explain why he believes City Of Troy to be the best horse he has ever trained when racecourse evidence suggests heavily otherwise – Timeform have rated nearly 20 of his horses over the years superior to the 130 City Of Troy currently rests on – was an entertaining watch.

In politician mode, O’Brien talked for a couple of minutes without providing a definitive answer to the question yet it still seems to me that City of Troy wasn’t even the best horse in the modestly-run Juddmonte International, that honour going to the runner-up Calandagan who got too far back before running final sectionals that suggested he won with a bit to spare given another crack at things, and I expect him to prove the point in this weekend’s Champion Stakes at Ascot.

Economics is highly promising for sure, but he’s not proven at this level in soft conditions and with the round course already described as heavy in parts Calandagan really ought to be a strong favourite and not second favourite as he is right now.

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