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Timefigure analysis of Northumberland Plate and Irish Derby meetings

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Tue July 02, 2024 · 5M ago

Timeform's Graeme North analyses the feature weekend action from a timefigure perspective and he thinks he saw a Group-class horse in the making at Newcastle.

Germanic one to follow

Having lived in Newcastle for five years back in the early eighties - when the multiple queues in the old dole office at Swan House snaked down numerous flights of stairs and attendances dropped to 13,000 at St James’ Park before the arrival of Kevin Keegan - I’ve long been very aware of just how fanatical the locals are about the three-day Northumberland Plate meeting.

The city has undergone remarkable change since then, of course, with Swan House, the brutalist 1960’s concrete monstrosity on stilts you encounter immediately crossing the Tyne Bridge now a plush residential apartment block, while St James’ Park is set to be expanded yet again.

Progress hasn’t escaped Newcastle racecourse either with the latest Northumberland Plate being the ninth to be run on tapeta since High Gosforth Park ripped up its Flat turf course in 2015. Newcastle-born Brian Ellison trained the runner-up Seamour in that opening tapeta Plate but finally struck in the race he’d been desperate to win since starting training at the 22nd attempt when Onesmoothoperator, 14th in 2022, struck off an official rating 2lb lower than then, not only knocking over three seconds off the fastest time in the race since it was switched to tapeta but also just over a second off the course record.

Ridden with great patience as well as confidence by Connor Beasley, unlike the favourite Trooper Bisdee who was given a kamikaze ride after a slow start by Hollie Doyle, a 106 timefigure confirms Onesmoothoperator is a smart stayer on his day but the form book suggests he’s a 7lb better horse on synthetics and the strong pace he needs to bring out the best in him isn’t always on tap in long-distance handicaps, so how the remainder of the season pans out for him remains to be seen.

Onesmoothoperator wins the Northumberland Plate

Montassib won a well-run (courtesy of another overly-aggressive Doyle ride on Albasheer) Chipchase Stakes in a decent 105 timefigure for all runner-up Kinross, who was making an even more belated reappearance than last year would probably have held on with a run under his belt, while Make Me King and Wiltshire were the other two winners at the meeting to exceed 100 on the clock.

Neither Tiffany, in the G3 Hoppings Stakes, nor Germanic in a novice event quite managed that level but both look worth keeping onside for the remainder of the season. I was very taken with the manner Tiffany (94 timefigure) disposed of Darnation and a host of other useful fillies to supplement her wide-margin win in Germany a month earlier, keeping all her rivals at bay with great ease despite not doing a tap in front. She could turn out to be very smart, possibly on the Alpinista scale, as could Germanic (88) who scored by the joint-second highest winning margin (11 lengths) on the straight track since the conversion to tapeta, sharing that distinction with no less than subsequent G1 winner Lord North and behind only subsequent G2 winner Tilsit. Don’t say you’ve not been warned he’s Group class (free video replay, below)!

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LA looks a stayer all over

Across in Ireland, the Curragh was also hosting its prime three-day fixture of the season which might have ended on a high-ish note with the Irish Derby but got off to an underwhelming start for such an important fixture with quantity dominating quality on the opening day.

Eight went to post in what looked a middling Derby including the second and third from Epsom, Ambiente Friendly and Los Angeles, as well as three others from Ballydoyle who were clearly there as minders for Los Angeles. Unsurprisingly the race was well run, the Ballydoyle quartet soon at the head of affairs with Los Angeles sticking to the rail and allowed a clear run through when his stable-companions moved wide off the home bend which looked much tighter than in previous years.

Ambiente Friendly got to the front briefly but much as he had at Epsom didn’t find what looked likely allowing Sunway to outstay him into second and was fortunate too to hold off Matsuri who didn’t get any sort of run in the last furlong. Visual analysis rather than sectional analysis is still the order of the day when assessing ground forfeited by having momentum checked, and Timeform have rated Matsuri joint second best on the day along with Sunway (113 timefigure) who looked much happier on this slower ground and longer trip than he had in the French Derby.

A three-quarter length win for Los Angeles gives him a 114 timefigure, the same as he achieved at Epsom when ridden closer to the hot pace than either Ambiente Friendly or City Of Troy, but he looks capable of a good deal higher when the circumstances demand it; much like Tiffany in the Hoppings, he looked bone idle in front, pricking and flicking his ears constantly while doing just enough to keep his rivals at bay once he’d got back to the front. Los Angeles won’t have any trouble staying an extended mile and three quarters; if anything the free-going Ambiente Friendly might end up back at a mile and a quarter but whether he’ll be any better at that trip than a mile and a half I’m not sure.

Los Angeles wins the Irish Derby

The other Group race on the card was the Railway Stakes, a race that Aidan O’Brien dominated early this century when winning nine of the first 10 renewals but had won only twice since until Henri Matisse extended that total to three this year. He might have been the outsider of the five-strong field and rejected by Ryan Moore who was aboard Tunbridge Wells instead, but a 110 timefigure is right up there with the best by any two-year-old this season and the manner in which he quickened up to catch runner-up The Strikin Viking while pulling four lengths clear of Norfolk third Arizona Blaze was impressive.

I’ll be very surprised if this is the only Group race he wins this year and it’s not hard to see The Strikin Viking (109) bagging at least one as well. No horse travelled more strongly nor for longer than he did and if any horse looks a better fit for the Gimcrack at York (where he won on his debut) right now then I haven’t seen him. Listed races over six furlongs and a mile were the other features on the card though both were steadily run and not really worthy of further comment.

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Bluestocking on the rise

The most intriguing of the three Group races on the middle day was the top-level Pretty Polly Stakes which saw Kieran Shoemark given another chance on Emily Upjohn after finishes outside the top three in the Sheema Classic and Coronation Cup this this year. She went some way to revoking claims that she’s not the filly she once was by running her best race of the season on the way to posting a 114 timefigure that is just 4lb below her best, but she had every chance.

The detailed sectionals available from Course Track show that she only ran one of the last seven furlongs fastest of all – the third last – and then by only 0.06 seconds from the held-up Content, so for all it looked as though she’d made an early burst for home given that sharp last-bend scenario the well-backed Bluestocking almost certainly did very well to get up and land her first G1, covering the penultimate furlong around a length faster than Emily Upjohn and the last one over three lengths faster.

Indeed, Timeform’s sectional upgrades have Bluestocking emerging as a 4lb better horse on the day and she’s not yet had the chance this year to run at a mile and a half which will surely bring about a bit more improvement.

Bluestocking overhauls Emily Upjohn close home

Godolphin at the double on July Course

Over at Newmarket, the headline timefigure of the day, and a good one at that too coming in at 115, was posted by King Of Conquest in the listed Fred Archer Stakes. The pace was good from the start with the field getting to the three-furlong marker around four seconds (around 20 lengths) quicker than the 0-90 fillies handicap later in the card.

The race was teed up for King Of Conquest to a degree with his stablemate Kemari ensuring the strongly fancied Crystal Delight had little peace in front, the pair both coming home tailed off, but the winner was entitled to win on his best form and took his record in listed races on ground Timeform called good to firm to three out of three.

Godolphin racked up a quick double courtesy of Noble Dynasty in the G3 Criterion Stakes but the race was tactical (timefigure just 91) with a good position key and the winner (again had the best form beforehand) was seen to better advantage than both the runner-up Nostrum and the third Witch Hunter.

The other listed race on the card, the Empress Fillies’ Stakes, resulted in a game all-the-way win for Celandine in a 99 timefigure which is well up to standard for the race and certainly a better performance on the clock than Queen Mary flop Truly Enchanting (93) managed in the G2 Balanchine the same afternoon across at the Curragh.

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