Timefigure analysis of Constitution Hill's Fighting Fifth Hurdle
Graeme North analyses Constitution Hill's Fighting Fifth win from a timing perspective and also highlights others who impressed on the clock.
Finally, as if grudgingly nudged from its slumber by the World Cup, the National Hunt season is finally under way seven weeks on from its ‘official’ launch at an increasingly insignificant-looking Chepstow fixture. With so much to cover, including the reappearance at Newcastle of two Festival winners pulled out at Ascot last week in Constitution Hill and L’Homme Presse, let's crack on.
I imagine it would be hard to find anyone who wasn’t impressed by Constitution Hill in the Fighting Fifth. Indeed, some went so far on social media as to claim his performance was the best they had ever seen over jumps; others suggested he might be the best horse ever; while another used his sectional time from two out compared with previous winners as supporting evidence for his greatness only then to claim – incredulously – that the second-last is always in the same place.
There’s no doubt that Constitution Hill is a top-class hurdler; that has been evident to anyone informed by a combination of timefigures and sectionals, not just since the Sky Bet Supreme when he recorded an outstanding 178 timefigure but ever since his debut when he ran the last quarter-mile at Sandown over three and a quarter seconds faster than the 131-rated Might I who had gone into the race with a large P and was left floundering despite finishing 17 lengths clear of the remainder.
There’s nothing strictly on the clock to suggest Constitution Hill improved his standing in the Fighting Fifth; a 12-length defeat of Epatante who turns nine at the end of the year and raced a bit too keenly with a pair of ten-year-olds occupying the next two places after being gifted an uncontested lead comes in at 158, upgraded to 172 once his sectional time from three out is incorporated.
Constitution Hill could have come home faster himself had his rider wanted him to – his time from the final hurdle to the line was slower than those recorded by opening juvenile winner Cabrakan or French Furze winner Tiger Jet, both of whom won much more steadily-run affairs – so his 172 overall time performance is very much a minimum one.
He’ll need to run to a figure into the 180s to go down as one of the all-time greats, but that’s far from unlikely in what promises to be a very interesting second half of the season.
Another opinion that gained plenty of traction after the Fighting Fifth was that Honeysuckle might as well be rerouted to the Mares’ Hurdle. For all that Constitution Hill’s 172 is a figure Honeysuckle has rarely approached – her best overall time rating is 164, achieved in the 2021 Champion Hurdle – that opinion shows a lack of respect to another outstanding performer who might well be in her last season but who has yet to be beaten in a career that has taken in four times as many races under Rules as Constitution Hill has had. Honeysuckle has a skill set no horse Constitution Hill has come up against so far has possessed, but I can’t help feeling she’ll get brushed aside given her performance levels, high though they still were, dropped off a little last season.
Constitution Hill’s winning time was the fastest in the Fighting Fifth this century by more than five seconds, illustrating just how fast conditions were on the day and nowhere near the ‘winter ground’ Newcastle’s clerk of the course had been aiming for.
L’Homme Presse’s winning time was the third fastest in the same timeframe since the race distance was changed to half a furlong short of three miles rather than three miles itself, though the two winners who ran faster, Yorkhill and Aye Right, covered more ground with the rails being dolled out. The form looks solid enough but, all the same, L’Homme Presse’s timefigure only came in at an ordinary 145. He’s one of two domestic high-quality chasers - the other being Ahoy Senor - who have still to run a top timefigure, though I don’t doubt he’s capable given the right circumstances.
Newbury’s two-day end of November meeting, sponsored by Coral this year, has long been a reliable source of smart future winners and this year promises to be no exception with Jet Powered from the first day the most pounced-upon eye-catcher going forward, though tribute should be paid to veterans Champ and Paisley Park first and foremost after just a neck separated them at the end of a stirring finish to the Long Distance Hurdle in which a sound pace and a 158 timefigure ensured there was no hiding place.
Everything about the result seems to suggest the pair have retained all their ability from last year, when falling just short in the championship races, but the contest highlighted a worrying paucity of up-and-coming young staying hurdlers and no doubt they’ll be joined again by the 2022 Stayers’ runner-up Thyme Hill whose reinvention as a novice chaser looks to have been an ill-judged move too late in life on the evidence of his poor jumping at the same meeting.
Jet Powered made a good impression visually in the opening novice, a race the stable won with Jonbon last year and which has also been taken in recent seasons by My Drogo and Lostintranslation. The clock wasn’t quite so complimentary with the winner’s timefigure coming in at an ordinary 72 but that was solely on account of a steady early pace and he put a further four lengths between himself and the runner-up between the last two hurdles and then trebled that difference after the last despite coasting home while his closest pursuer was hard ridden.
Stage Star won on this card last year when he came home in similar fractions to Jonbon but he went down to a disappointing defeat in the Berkshire Novices’ Chase. His defeat of West Cork at Warwick in a race he dominated in a slow time hadn’t told us much but this effort (and West Cork’s subsequent no-show behind Jonbon) suggests he’s not the Grade 1 performer he might have looked at one time.
Henderson introduced another very nice prospect on Saturday’s Newbury card in the shape of Luccia. A dual bumper winner last year, she made a flawless switch to hurdling in the listed mares’ novice with a 130 timefigure and, more impressively as I saw it, faster finishing sectionals from each of the last three obstacles than the Gerry Feilden winner over the same trip First Street, who won the valuable handicap off a mark of 146, giving the form plenty of substance. It’s no surprise to see her at the head of the market for the Mares’ Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and the current 9/2 might yet turn out to be good value.
The feature Coral Gold Cup went to the upwardly-mobile Le Milos in a solid 153 timefigure. The race maybe lacked some of the class of previous years, but the winner is still only young and hasn’t been with his stable long so should still progress if the hard race he had here hasn't left its mark (his rider picked up a seven-day suspension for using his whip above the permitted level).
This is the time of year, of course, when not only are reputations like those of Luccia’s enhanced but bubbles burst, and American Mike was a high-profile name among the latter category in the Grade 3 Monksfield Novices Hurdle at Navan on Sunday. I observed after his reappearance win at Down Royal that there appeared to be less substance to his win than some observers were making out and there was something of the 'Bob Olingers' about him as he paddled up the run-in at Navan.
His trainer Gordon Elliott remarked afterwards he’d had a good blow – unsurprisingly given the furious pace the race was run at – but the way he ran around approaching and after the last was disconcerting and it was no surprise his price for both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett drifted markedly. The winner Dawn Rising (three and a half seconds slower from two out than any of the other winners) had the race handed to him on a plate in a 124 timefigure and doesn’t appeal to me as a leading Festival prospect.
American Mike was displaced as Ballymore favourite by another winner on the card, Grangeclare West, who took a deep-looking maiden in a 118 timefigure. His finishing sectional from three out was the fastest of all the hurdles winners on the card and he looks potentially smart, as does the opening juvenile winner Comfort Zone who had run a very fast closing sectional on the Flat at Leopardstown in October and came home fastest here from both two out and the last to win with a fair bit in hand, I thought.
On a card deep with clues for days ahead, Fil Dor made an assured chasing debut to beat last season’s Champion Hurdle fourth Saint Roi in a beginners' event but a 116 timefigure confirms the race was steadily run and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the runner-up turn the tables in a more strongly-run affair with this outing behind him. Grand National hopeful The Big Dog took the feature Troytown Handicap in a high 157 timefigure in a race fashioned by the runner-up Lifetime Ambition giving his all from the front only to give way after the last.
Gowran’s card the previous day also featured another high-class beginners’ chase that saw Classic Getaway get the better of his higher-profile stablemate Minella Cocooner (who was apparently very edgy and uncooperative in the parade ring) by almost three lengths. A 133 timefigure suggests the pace wasn’t quite as strong as might have been expected, which maybe reflects even better on the winner than the more prominently ridden runner-up, not least given his physique suggests he’s on course to be a much better chaser than hurdler.
Inothewayurthinkin had impressed me at Cork when getting the better of my Cesarewitch fancy Lot Of Joy at Cork and he once again showed a smart turn of foot to get the better of some promising rivals in the feature novice hurdle. It would be interesting to know what his likely campaign might be; I’m sure he’ll well treated if put into handicap company.
The drainage work carried out over the past couple of years at Lingfield Park looks to have paid dividends with fewer meetings abandoned and a higher quality of contestant, certainly among the novice hurdlers. Gary Moore has introduced a couple of promising prospects there and the latest of them, Givega, who is related to Quevega as his name implies and by the same sire as his other winner Authorised Speed, looks a most exciting prospect as he came home from three out getting on for five seconds faster than the other hurdle winners and was still full of running passing the post. Moore’s other top hurdler Goshen is also by Authorised and it’s not fanciful to believe Givega might turn out almost as good.
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