Timefigure analysis of City Of Troy and rest of Sky Bet Ebor Festival at York

Day one at York delivers

If there was a poll - and there might well be one out there, somewhere – that asked the racing public what their favourite opening day of a Festival meeting is (or was, given that the racing programme gets tweaked much more nowadays than it ever used to) I wonder what the answer might be?

On the Flat, Royal Ascot’s opening day would have to be right up there – who can forget the 2012 meeting that opened with Frankel’s 11-length win in the Queen Anne - while over jumps the first day of the Cheltenham Festival is always supremely exciting for all its aura has been rivalled in recent years by the first day of the burgeoning Dublin Festival.

In terms of absolute quality, like most Festivals lasting four days or longer, York’s Ebor meeting would be a much more concentrated package trimmed back to three days given four of the opening seven races on the Wednesday were handicaps, but the three races that weren’t, the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes, the Sky Bet Great Voltigeur and the Juddmonte International, packed a heady punch of intrigue and quality rarely seen on the opening day there for many years.

The Acomb Stakes has always seemed to me to have a reputation above and some way removed from the subsequent exploits of most of its winners, at least those who have made the track, but I’m not sure that accusation can be levelled at the latest keenly-anticipated running which attracted two horses, The Lion In Winter and Ruling Court, who were both at the head of the Classic betting after massively impressive debuts which earned them both the Timeform large P.

Oddly enough, the Acomb hasn’t been a race their respective trainers Aidan O’Brien and Charlie Appleby have targeted much - O’Brien had only won the race once before this century and not since 2000, though it hasn’t been a race he’s ever targeted with his top-notchers, while Ruling Court was only Charlie Appleby’s fourth ever runner in a race he has yet to win.

But by posting a time 0.74 seconds faster than any other in the Acomb since 2000, on the back of a following wind that translated into a very smart 115 timefigure, The Lion In Winter (who, interestingly, was Sea The Stars' first ever representative in the race) looked every inch the potential top-class horse his final furlong at the Curragh on his debut suggested he might be.

Ruling Court (109 timefigure) ran four of the last five furlongs faster than The Lion In Winter according to RaceIQ but not the final one and probably wants a bit more of a test at the trip as befits one who made his winning debut at Sandown. Runner-up Wimbledon Hawkeye (111) also advanced his form a good deal further, paying a compliment in the process to Ruling Court’s stablemate Ancient Truth who beat him readily in the Superlative Stakes. O’Brien’s previous Acomb winner Hemingway never ran again; hopefully we’ll see The Lion In Winter next month as he’s pencilled in for the Goffs Million.

Group 1 winners don’t participate very often in the Great Voltigeur, but Los Angeles was given the go-ahead after a grinding win in the Irish Derby last time. For all he was conceding weight all round, I didn’t think his performance was particularly compelling here, either, and his winning timefigure was just 97. Some of that might be to do with the manner in which the race unfolded – the early pace wasn’t strong, only lifting turning for home, after which he couldn’t match the fractions posted by either Space Legend or King’s Gambit but didn’t have to thanks to a much more forward position.

A 121 performance rating is middling for the race, well below the 127 Cracksman and Sea The Moon posted, but would still make him very competitive in the St Leger. However, it seems likely he’ll be kept at shorter distances.

Troy's timefigure; Calandagan impresses in defeat

The Juddmonte International attracted a high-quality 13-runner field with runners from France and Japan keen to take on a Derby winner in City of Troy who hadn’t impressed everyone in the Eclipse where he had to work hard to see off Al Riffa and Ghostwriter.

Whether the declaration of his stable-companion Hans Andersen as an anticipated pacemaker was a masterly distraction I’m not sure, but the start ended up being one of the most ragged in the race for many years with Maljoom, Israr, Alflaila and Docklands all well out of their ground after half a furlong and Hans Andersen (himself not the best away) making little effort to get to the front.

The fallout from all that was that City Of Troy ended up making his own running, much as he did in the Dewhurst, at an ordinary enough pace to begin with that still saw several taking a pull turning for home. City Of Troy was always going to be very difficult to pass from thereon and only King Edward VII winner Calandagan and Ghostwriter ended up getting near him.

Despite the course record, City of Troy’s 120 timefigure is just the 15th best this century and his 130 performance rating leaves him just behind Giant’s Causeway and Australia in O’Brien’s pantheon of winners.

The post-race focus might have been on City of Troy but Calandagan deserves as many plaudits if not more; dropping back from a mile and a half and not well placed turning for home, he earned a 6lb higher upgrade than City Of Troy for his efforts throughout the last three furlongs and would surely be clear favourite for the Arc if he wasn’t barred on account of being a gelding.

Thursday’s action began with two six-furlong contests, the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes and the more recently inaugurated Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes. The Lowther followed much the same pattern as recent editions which have seen a decline in quality since the early part of the decade and Celandine’s winning performance (103) as well as timefigure (just 97) were both much lower than the race produced in its heyday.

Forcing tactics are generally a useful ploy on York’s straight track and Celandine’s win was the seventh time since Timeform first started recording in-play symbols comprehensively in 2009 that the Lowther winner has made all the running (on five other occasions the winner has been awarded an in-play symbol of 2, indicating she raced close up). However, they were overdone in the following Sales race which was run at a faster clip to halfway, but finished more slowly, with form pick Arizona Blaze ending up the fall guy as he curled up in the last 50 yards (Diligently’s winning timefigure was just 84).

The two other contests run over an identical trip, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Galtres Stakes, also panned out differently. The Yorkshire Oaks was the slower run of the two with the leader Port Fairy getting to the four-furlong marker according to Race IQ in 100.48 seconds which was 0.43 seconds (getting on for three lengths) slower than the Galtres; from there one might have expected the Oaks field to have come home faster but a particularly quick section which made all up that deficit by the two-furlong marker only ended up resulting in a slow-motion finish with the winner Content, who reversed the Irish Oaks form with You Got To Me, taking over 13 seconds to run the last furlong.

Content’s timefigure was just 101; Galtres winner Scenic, one of three breakthrough winners at the meeting for Ed Walker, managed 106 on the back of a faster final two furlongs than Content.

One other notable performance on the clock on the day worth noting came from Elim in the concluding handicap. Dropped to seven furlongs, she ran each of the last three furlongs fastest of all in a day-leading 34.09 seconds and is sure to get back to winning ways when stepped back up in trip.

Don't stop Believing

Calandagan wasn’t the only ‘unlucky’ loser of a Group 1 contest during the week; given a more level playing field Believing would surely have won the Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes.

York might be widely praised for being one of the fairest tracks in the country but there has been quite a significant track bias at play on the straight course for some time now with low numbers holding a significant sway.

That had been apparent on the opening day (Gutsy Girl well worth going in your notebook) but manifested itself to an even greater degree in the Nunthorpe where the flying Czech raider Ponntos and the eventual winner Bradsell had the race to themselves for well over three furlongs towards the far rail.

Bradsell, who’d won a deep Listed race in France on his recent reappearance, stayed on well enough to post a 113 timefigure, 10lb below the performance rating Timeform awarded him, in beating Believing by three-quarters of a length with another horse who’d raced on the far side, Starlust, a head back in third.

Factoring sectionals into the equation, however, particularly the last one when Believing came from some way back, which by my estimation ought to credit her with a 4lb higher upgrade than Bradsell, and then a further 4lb correction for the effect of the draw for those who didn’t race far side, tells me that Believing was dealt an unfortunate hand.

For a moment it looked as if Big Mojo (a stable-companion of the Nunthorpe eighth and poorly drawn Big Evs) would win the Gimcrack but after his rider Silvestre de Sousa looked to have things under control, he didn’t see out the final furlong in a strongly-run race and faded into fourth.

Like Big Evs, The Strikin Viking was another from the stall nearest to the stand rail to finish well beaten, running too freely as the runners raced down the centre of the track and helping tee things up for Cool Hoof Luke who was much better berthed behind runners than he had been in the Coventry at Ascot or the Vintage at Goodwood and settled much better as a result. A 108 timefigure for the Gimcrack is well up to scratch.

Vauban won the Lonsdale Cup in a 108 timefigure so highlighting the strength of some of the recent Irish staying contests he’s been beaten in easily, but runner-up Al Nayyir made up a chuck of ground from a poor position and can fairly be rated at least as good.

Ireland have the Magical formula

In theory the Ebor was the feature of Saturday’s card but it’s a long time since a horse with an official rating of 86 got into the race, a sad reflection of the growing talent drain abroad. It is perhaps maybe the start of an era of dominance by Irish-trained jumpers after Absurde’s win the previous year, and Magical Zoe's near-three length win in ready fashion in a 100 timefigure is testament to how well handicapped she was on her smart jumps form in Ireland.

See The Fire also won the opening Strensall Stakes readily, posting a 107 timefigure as well as a 12lb upgrade, more than confirming her Nassau Stakes form, while Breege took full advantage of a strongly-run City of York Stakes that cut up badly on a low-key final day with her winning timefigure a very modest 90.

The Strikin Viking might have misfired at York but across at the Curragh the following day his Railway Stakes conqueror Henri Matisse extended his unbeaten record nearly two months on from that win with a smart performance to get the better of Hotazhell (to whom he was conceding 3lb) by a length in the Group 2 Futurity.

On time that performance comes in at 95 but a 17lb Timeform sectional upgrade elevates that rating to 112; Bedtime Story ran a faster time in the following Debutante Stakes but a slower final furlong, equating to an overall 105 time rating once sectionals have been added to her base 94 rating. Their stablemate Officer ran an almost identical last two furlongs to Henri Matisse off a much slower pace (timefigure 55) and comes in at 90 once sectionals are incorporated.

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