Timefigure analysis from Graham North on the Classic Trials
Our timefigure guru Graeme North analyses the big action Newmarket and Newbury. Is one of the handicap winners potentially a Group One horse?
Somebody wrote once, penned John Rickman in his fascinating book ‘Horse Racing (Homes of Sport)’ that “where trainers are happy there the horses will be gathered together”.
That observation was directed at Lincoln and particularly the Spring Meeting which with rare exceptions then opened the Flat racing season before continuing “‘seventy years ago the scribes complained that Lincoln was an austere meeting with its austerity in great part because the meeting is held in March when the winds blow and there is often stinging hail or bone-chilling slush to greet both horse and man as they make their way to the Carholme”.
Lincoln is long gone now, of course, closed in 1964, but the unsportsmanlike weather to which he referred continues to dampen the start of the domestic turf season with half a dozen abandonments already this season.
“Why then are trainers happy?” continued Rickman before answering “they are able to bring into action some of the horses upon which they have been setting their hopes during the winter”.
Times have changed greatly since then, of course, with that remark now more accurately describing the Craven and Greenham meetings than Doncaster which took Lincoln’s place, but even after the conclusion of the five days action at Newmarket and Newbury it still feels like the Flat season is a long way from bursting into life.
Part of that is the continuing miserable weather for sure but also I suspect because the big names who dominated the two-year-old action last year - City of Troy and Rosallion among the colts and Fallen Angel, Ylang Ylang and Opera Singer among the fillies - have yet to reappear because they are heading straight to their respective Guineas or have met with a setback.
The two standout colts might have been missing, but their form was represented in their absence by horses who had finished behind them last season and it’s fair to say their reputations certainly weren’t diminished by their stand-ins.
First up, in the bet365 Feilden Stakes, was Jayarebe who’d finished behind Rosallion in the Jean-Luc Lagardere at ParisLongchamp on Arc weekend. I’d be slightly loathe to argue as I’ve seen written elsewhere that his win was a boost for Rosallion as he was almost certainly at a big disadvantage in France effectively back in trip (the Lagardere was run on unseasonably quick ground and was run in a time nearly six seconds faster than his debut maiden win) on just his second start.
Upped to nine furlongs in the Feilden, he once again looked the smart prospect he had on his debut with a strong-staying performance that showed why he wouldn’t have been a match for the much speedier Rosallion over 1400m. His winning time, on very quick ground (quicker than the official) and assisted by a tailwind, might have been the fastest in the race this century but his 103 timefigure – after his race time had been compared to all others on the day and adjusted for the various factors such as weight and ability that influence timefigures - isn’t particularly high historically measured against past runnings of the race.
That said, a 5lb upgrade elevates his rating to 108 which puts a better spin on what was undoubtedly an impressive visual performance. Unlike in his days as a two-year-old Jayarebe hasn’t any fancy entries as yet but the most impressive furlong he ran at Newmarket was his final one which he covered in 12.11 seconds and was bettered only among the winners by those who won at five or seven furlongs. He’ll have no trouble with a mile-and-a-quarter.
Next up in the bet365 Craven Stakes was Haatem who was ‘representing’ City Of Troy having finished six-and-a-half lengths behind him in the Superlative Stakes and eight-and-a-half lengths behind him in the Dewhurst.
I doubt that Haatem had to improve quite as much as it looked on paper given that he had the now 109-rated and 110-rated Mountain Bear behind him in second and third when winning the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last year, after which he was oddly stepped back to six furlongs for two runs, and also had two defeats of the Champagne winner Iberian to his name, but the step up to a mile clearly brought out some improvement, allowing him to turn around Dewhurst form with Eben Shaddad, and a 105 timefigure (upgraded to 110 when a 5lb sectional upgrade is added on) is 7lb higher than the 98 he achieved twice as a two-year-old.
The Hannon yard, who enjoyed a very good week, weren't able to add the Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes to their haul with their representative Son finishing fourth to northern raider Esquire but the fact that he was beaten just over a length having twice finished two lengths or more behind Haatem when they met twice as two-year-olds rather suggests the Greenham form, in which the winning timefigure was just 92 and none of the first seven home deserved any extra credit from a sectional perspective, is substandard.
Fighting their corner, Hannon revealed that Rosallion has been working better than Haatem while jockey Sean Levey put forward the opinion on Luck On Sunday that Rosallion could probably run a faster furlong sectional than City Of Troy.
Races aren’t won over one furlong, of course, and the probability that City Of Troy might be able to run a greater succession of fast sectionals than Rosallion wasn’t lost on the savvy rider. Mindful that Beauvatier, whose last 400m sectionals in the Lagardere were almost identical to Rosallion’s but has been beaten since under more favourable underfoot conditions in France, I’d suggest events over the last 10 days or so point to only one conclusion which is that Rosallion (109 on overall timeratings after sectionals are incorporated) is no nearer and probably even further removed from City Of Troy (125) than he was before the trials started.
Staying with the males for now, Andre Fabre might have had an excellent week domestically but had a disappointing experience at Newmarket with his two runners, Narkez in the Feilden and Alcantor in the Craven, running well below the form they appeared to have shown until now despite the trainer's insistence he’d come to Newmarket for the better ground.
Admittedly both horses were arguably set too much to do which might have been a tactical oversight in view of the prevailing tailwind which saw very few horses all week get involved from off the pace, and a six-and-a-half length win in heavy ground in his preceding race over a subsequent winner suggests Narkez might have been better staying in France, but for all he raced a bit freely Alcantor’s tame effort was another blow for the form of the one top juvenile races in France, the Criterium International, whose winner Sunway had managed just fifth on his reappearance behind the promising Atlast who is one of many emerging sons of Farhh strutting their stuff in France right now.
He looks a live candidate for one of the colts classics in France as does Metropolitan who lost his unbeaten record on his recent reappearance after getting too far back (ran the last 600m fastest of all despite finishing fifth of six) but whose two wins at two had included a trouncing of recent French Group 3 winner Calandagan.
Historically fast times were also the order of the day at Newmarket in the fillies trial, the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn, which Pretty Crystal took in a time around a third of a second - around two lengths – quicker than the previous fastest this century.
It has been a lucky race for Richard Fahey who won it in 2011 with Barefoot Lady and 2014 with Sandiva, but given that both those fillies achieved a higher level of form in the Nell Gwyn than Pretty Crystal, yet neither made the first four in the 1000 Guineas, then it’s not easy to be overly optimistic about her chances in that race should she head there (she would have to be supplemented) with neither her timefigure here nor sectional upgrade pointing to anything better than a possible top-six finish.
Much the same could be said about the same race chances of Fred Darling winner Folgaria who admittedly did well to come from last to first in a steadily-run affair (timefigure just 75) considering she’s a winner in soft ground at a mile. The French 1000 Guineas, the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches, looks the more sensible option for her especially given the form of the Prix Marcel Boussac has taken a battering this year with the runner-up Rose Bloom and fourth-placed Ribaltagia the latest to let the form down in their respective appearances last week.
Karl Burke didn’t have much luck with his three runners in France last week, but he has since sent out nine winners which augurs well for the prospects of his 1000 Guineas challenger Fallen Angel.
Two of his winners last week in particular look as though they will turn out to be very smart. The first of those is Ice Max, who made it two wins from two for the year after blitzing Individualism (himself clear of the rest) by five-and-a-half lengths in a 103 timefigure upgraded to 119 after sectionals are incorporated, and the second is Poet Master who won a handicap at the Craven meeting in great fashion in a 108 timefigure despite looking all at sea in the Dip as he changed his legs on countless occasions.
If forced to choose between the two for one to follow for the remainder of the year it would have to be Poet Master who’s got away with murder with just a 5lb rise in his official mark to 105 and looks every inch a Group horse, possibly even Group One.
One of the more unusual aspects of the latest Flat season if not perhaps surprising given the wet weather is the low level of achievement among the two-year-olds on the timefigure front with only one winning performance exceeding 85 and that not coming until the day before this column was written from Cowardofthecounty at the Curragh in the first juvenile contest over six furlongs.
At the end of Craven week in 2023 there had been four winning timefigure performances exceeding 90 from two fewer races with the best of them (98) coming from subsequent Coventry winner River Tiber, while in 2023 there had been two winning performances exceeding 90 from four fewer races with the better of them (97) achieved by subsequent Coventry runner-up Persian Force.
There’s plenty of time before Royal Ascot for others to throw their hat into the ring, of course, but in beating Little Big Bear’s brother Whistlejacket by two and a half lengths with the third a further six and a half lengths back Cowardofthecounty’s Coventry prospects look lively already.
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