Three bets for our man on Thursday including big-price fancies at both Lingfield and Wolverhampton.
Recommended bets:
1pt e.w. Norman The Red in 2.22 Lingfield at 50/1 (minimum price 25/1)
1pt win Pembroke House in 2.00 Ludlow at 13/2 (minimum price 5/1)
1pt e.w. Greengage in 8.15 Wolverhampton at 8/1 (minimum price 6/1)
Stormin’ Norman? Norman The Red 2.22 Lingfield
Huntsman’s Jog, having his first start for Fergal O’Brien, is the obvious favourite here, but he’s come from the yard of the ultra-shrewd Don Cantillon, who owned and bred him, and it’s not always easy polishing the Whistling Don’s cast-offs.
Sandy Boy is next in, but he’s about the least genuine hurdler I’ve seen in recent seasons, twice throwing races away by ducking for the exit after the last, most recently at Huntingdon, and I’d not back him at evens if he was a distance clear with a hurdle left to jump.
The more I looked at the race, the more I liked the chances of rank outsider Norman The Red and I was gratified to hear David’s response when I phone him up expecting to be shot down in flames. Not only did he not think I’d lost the plot, but he pointed out ever so politely that he’d already sent me message setting out the chances of the Camilla Poulton-trained 10-y-o. I say politely, but I think his exact words were “Don’t you read your ****ing e-mails then?”
Norman The Red is clearly hard to train given the big absence before his recent return, but he’s very lightly-raced for his age - this will only be his tenth start over hurdles - and he ran a massive personal best when only beaten 25l behind Old Guard in the Grade Two National Spirit.
It would be easy to write that off as a fluke, but the speed figure backed up this visual impression and despite the handicapper giving him another 5lb for it, it didn’t stop him winning a handicap on his next start, while those around him also won next time in what was a very strong race over a trip short of his optimum.
His latest effort would have been needed after such a long absence and it was hardly a disaster, running well to three out and having every chance before getting tired. It may be he needs another run or two to bring him to peak fitness but I’d argue that he’s just about the best of these from a handicapping perspectiv and will handle the heavy ground and three mile trip, so cannot go unbacked at 50/1 or even half those odds.
An Easier Opening: Pembroke House 2.00 Ludlow
When the front three in the market for a race were beaten 84l, 35l and 79l respectively last time out, it makes you want to take a second look, doesn’t it? Trumps Benefit has the most legitimate excuse, as soft ground didn’t really seem to suit at Cartmel on his latest start, although connections do reach for the headgear at the same time today.
It’s harder to find reasons for Peter’s Portrait and The Happy Chappy, both capable on their day but knowing when that day is a game in itself, so it’s Pembroke House that gets the vote here.
He probably didn’t appreciate slogging around on heavy ground for much of last season but still ran a couple of good races in defeat, and a return to Ludlow, a track he likes (record in handicap chases here reads F23126) and catching him fresh might be the key. Given his overall win record, he’s not one for the mortgage by any means, but he’ll not find many weaker opportunities than this and looks a couple of points too big.
Back On Track: Greengage 8.15 Wolverhampton
Greengage has found it hard going on turf this season, and his tally now stands at 0-20 in that sphere but Tristan Davidson’s 5-y-o has a better record on the all-weather, with three wins and four places from 11 starts and a C&D record of 112.
It was this time last year Greengage went on his winning spree and he gave notice at Newcastle last time out that he was starting to run into a bit of form, with a staying-on third over the stiff 1½m there. He does get that trip, but as demonstrated, his record at this distance is much better, and he ought to go very close from his current mark.
Preview posted 1800 BST on 21/10/2020