The big questions ahead of Cheltenham's November Meeting

How are conditions looking on the Old Course?

As always the much-anticipated November Meeting takes place on the Old Course at Cheltenham and after barely a drop of rain at Prestbury Park since the Showcase Meeting in October (run on the same track) – just 2mm has been recorded since then – the ground is ‘Good’.

Extensive watering is taking place to maintain ‘and improve’ those conditions, but with little to no rain forecast over the weekend it’s looking like consistent ground over three days and that’s likely to be ‘Good’ throughout on the Chase, Hurdle and Cross Country courses.

As we often see on the Old Course, especially when the ground is riding like this, it could be tough to make up ground and come from behind, the sharper turns and the shorter run back up the hill more suited to prominent racers.

With that in mind, some usual front runners to look out for at the meeting include Matata, The Newest One, Lookaway, Ginny’s Destiny, Arctic Gale, Bhaloo and Abuffalosoldier. We’ll have to weigh up potential pace pressure at the final field stages, but these prominent types are already on the radar.

Which trainers traditionally do well at this meeting?

Looking at the last 15 years of November Meetings Paul Nicholls is unsurprisingly the leading trainer overall with 33 wins from 200 runners at a strike-rate of 16.50%.

David Pipe is second (24/150 at 16.00%) and Philip Hobbs is third (22/120 at 18.33%). Nicky Henderson, perhaps only just warming into the season at this stage, sits fourth with 19 winners from 140 runners at 13.57%.

The Irish challenge is getting stronger in November. Of Henry De Bromhead’s quartet of winners at this meeting (4/28 at 14.29%), three have come since 2019, while Gavin Cromwell is 3/10 at 30.00% at this meeting since 2022.

Other trainers who have done well at the November Meeting from a small sample include Harry Fry (5/16 at 31.25%) and Kerry Lee (4/10 at 40.00%) – both those trainers have entries this weekend at the six-day stage.

How’s the Paddy Power Gold Cup shaping up?

The first big handicap of the jumps season proper, the Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase is always a race to look forward to and this year is no different – at this stage.

We have got the usual mix of unexposed second-season novices, already-established top-quality chasers and a sprinkling of Cheltenham specialists, but the worry is the ground will see this race cut up to a smaller than average field.

A total of 17 stood their ground at the six-day stage, but that has been a typical number for the final line-up in recent years and we had 19 run in it in 2021 and 20 in 2015. Half that number turning up on Saturday would be an unfortunate scenario for such a prestigious race.

Ginny’s Destiny will hopefully take his chance and he looks an obvious candidate for that man Nicholls, but he’ll be quite an easy one to take on given his price, his record first time out and the conditions. Having said that, his Cheltenham record commands respect and he looks tailor made for the assignment.

Imagine, formerly with Gordon Elliott, has been the plunge horse for Harry Derham, while 2022 winner Ga Law is back for more off a 13lb higher mark.

Other previous Cheltenham winners include Il Ridoto, the second string to Nicholls’ bow, In Excelsis Deo, who won at the April meeting for the aforementioned Fry, Fugitif, who won last year’s December Gold Cup, and Protektorat, the reigning Ryanair Chase champion.

Meanwhile, the Irish challenge is small and select but both Cromwell (Hartur D’arc) and De Bromhead (Lets Go Champ) could be represented, while Willie Mullins’ sole entry is likely JP McManus second string (green cap, white star), Janidil.

Any Grade 1 horses in the Greatwood Hurdle?

It was fantastic when the likes of Rooster Booster (2002) and Sizing Europe (2007) took in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle on their way to the Champion Hurdle but it’s looking like those days are sadly gone.

Top weight Lump Sum, from a BHA mark of 141, has a couple of stone to find if he’s to make up into a Champion Hurdle contender, but if the race lacks a smattering of top-level intrigue it is at least looking competitive with a healthy 20 runners in contention at the six-day stage.

As ever, it’s the lightly-raced ones that have found their way to the top of the market, Fergal O’Brien’s Dysart Enos and James Owen’s Burdett Road like flies to a lightbulb at the head of the betting.

The pair have had just three hurdles starts each and Dysart Enos, ruled out of the Festival at the 11th hour, remains unbeaten. It’s no wonder she’s such a short price (around 3/1) given she was well fancied for the Grade 2 Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in March, especially as Golden Ace’s win suggested she might’ve won it.

Maybe she could make up into a Grade 1 mare and given she races here off a mark of 131 you can’t blame the layers for taking cover.

Burdett Road has more questions to answer after being put in his place by Sir Gino at this track in January, but he is quite obviously another horse with potential racing from a mark of 133.

Who are the other stars on show at the meeting?

It’s pretty quiet on that front. Welsh Grand National winner and Gold Cup participant Nassalam could run in the Holland Cooper Handicap Chase on Sunday, but he might need to come down a few more pounds yet before he’s competitive again.

The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase offers Gordon Elliott the chance to get a run into his hedge hoppers and he's plumped for Conflated to have a look at the track under Rob James, as Delta Work and Galvin stay at home.

But it’s the Shloer Chase, now run on the Friday, where the big guns line up. Jonbon is the star attraction, at likely prohibitive odds, for Henderson, but if you can’t trust him at skinny prices there’s always Edwardstone and Boothill to consider in what is a small but select field.

Which novices should we be looking out for?

Some big guns have won novices at this meeting over the years. Best Mate, Azertyuiop, Comply Or Die, Black Jack Ketchum, Katchit, Denman, Imperial Commander, Albertas Run, Sunnyhillboy, Diamond Harry, Cue Card, Al Ferof, Dynaste, Coneygree, Altior, Thistlecrack, Protektorat and Banbridge to name but a few.

No wonder it creates excitement even when the established stars aren’t there.

Stars in the making this year include Jonjo O'Neill's Springwell Bay in the Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices’ Chase on Friday, while on the same card Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Potters Charm steps up in grade in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle following his win at the Showcase Meeting.

L'Eau du Sud and Iberico Lord could face off in the Paddy Power Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase on Saturday, the latter trained by Henderson who could unleash any number of Lucky Place, Peaky Boy and Bhaloo in the Cheltenham Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase on the Sunday.

With all the above in mind, who are you backing?

Final fields are essential before punting at this meeting and I was interested to see Phantomofthepoints take up his engagement in the opening race, the Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle over 2m5f.

David Pipe has started the season in terrific form and we know he targets this meeting, while Phantomofthepoints had two options on Friday – the other being the novices’ handicap hurdle that closes the card over two miles.

However, it looks significant that he steps up in trip to 2m5f for the meeting’s opener, a race the yard have won three times in the last decade, as he’s a former pointer with stamina in his pedigree and he’s from a fine family that Pipe and his father know very well.

Out of Swing Bowler, who won on her handicap debut stepped up in trip to 2m3f, from the family of prolific winners Red Sherlock and Lady Cricket, all three enjoyed good ground and Phantomofthepoints hasn’t really had a chance on such conditions yet.

He has progressed well on soft, though, his easy Chepstow win in April marking him out as a nice prospect, while his Ayr defeat just over a few weeks later came in a race where he did too much too soon.

Up in trip on better ground, from a mark of 124, he can go well under Ellis Collier.

Published at 1300 GMT on 13/11/24

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