The 2021 Derby: A defining renewal when it comes to Aidan O'Brien vs the rest?
Ben Linfoot wonders whether the 2021 Cazoo Derby might be determinative when it comes to continuing Ballydoyle dominance or giving the rest more of a chance.
We are living in unprecedented times. No one man has dominated the Derby like Aidan O’Brien in its 241-year history and no stallion has ever had such a hold on the race like Galileo. And as we approach the 242nd renewal on Saturday both pre-eminent trainer and sire combine once again with the top two in the betting.
It all began 20 years ago when Galileo purred to Derby success, O’Brien’s first. He’d win it the year after that, as well, with High Chaparral, but then had to wait a decade until his dominance really began to take hold.
By then Galileo had sired his first Derby winner thanks to Jim Bolger’s New Approach and as Camelot ended the Montjeu era in style in 2012, when his father became the fifth stallion in history to produce four Derby winners, it also signalled a third win in the race for O’Brien. The wheel was beginning to turn.
The following year Galileo and O’Brien combined for the first time as stallion and trainer in the Derby when Ruler Of The World came out on top under Ryan Moore, while 12 months after that Joseph O’Brien was in the saddle as Australia, out of the Oaks winner Ouija Board, won another one for the sire-handler combination that has become such a powerful force.
Golden Horn, Harzand and Masar gave brief respite from the Ballydoyle production line, but even nestled in amongst that quartet was another winner for O’Brien with the unheralded Wings Of Eagles. By Pour Moi, a Derby-winning son of Montjeu, his 40/1 Epsom shock came at the expense of the much better-fancied stablemate, Cliffs Of Moher, a son of Galileo.
Since Godolphin tasted rare Derby success with Masar it has been all about Galileo and O’Brien. In 2019 Anthony Van Dyck really showcased his sire’s ability to get his stock to stay no matter who the dam was, as he was out of the Australian sprinter Believe’N’Succeed, and then there was Serpentine.
The reaction to Serpentine’s win wasn’t really what you would expect when a trainer had just won a record eighth Derby and the stallion had produced a record fifth winner. O’Brien and Galileo had just surpassed the achievements of all other trainers and sires in the race’s 241-year history, but there was no fanfare – and not just because the race was run behind closed doors.
Perhaps it was the manner of the victory, an unconsidered maiden winner getting loose on the front end. But more likely it was just the sheer realisation that this wasn’t so much sport – and the Derby at its best has produced magnificent sport – but essentially the viewing of an exclusive club. When the ‘Ghost Town Derby’ really needed a good story, a sprinkling of the old Epsom magic, it got an Aidan O’Brien-trained fourth string.
Passing the torch
O’Brien and Galileo’s place in Derby history is assured and it looks likely that their dominance ain’t over yet by any stretch, but what happens next is now on the horizon.
Galileo isn’t going to last forever - at 23-years-old he’s in the twilight of his stallion career - and, for all Ballydoyle’s Derby dominance, they still haven’t found one of his sons to take over the mantle.
Ruler Of The World stands in France for €5000 and has produced one good horse in Iridessa; Australia has made a promising start to his career at stud but is known for staying power and it’s no surprise his sole Group One winner was a St Leger winner in Galileo Chrome; Anthony Van Dyck died at the Melbourne Cup and his patchy race record hardly marked him out as super stallion material anyway; and then there was Serpentine.
So, while it may seem like the Ballydoyle production line is currently in overdrive, the search is still on for an in-house son of Galileo to run with the baton and time is running out. Perhaps Bolshoi Ballet or even High Definition will be the answer, which makes this year’s Derby all the more tantalising, especially when you consider the opposition.
Of the 19 runners at the six-day stage, five are by Galileo, seven are by sons of Galileo and three are by Galileo’s half-brother, Sea The Stars. Two sons of Camelot, a Dubawi and an American Pharoah complete the entries.
The pool of horses that are equipped to run in a Derby is a shallow one and a piece of the action costs plenty – just look at Lone Eagle, the only non-Ballydoyle Galileo in the field, a 500,000gns yearling and a 50/1 chance for Epsom.
William Haggas is better placed than most to assess the situation. He won the Derby 25 years ago with Shaamit and has had just three runners in the race since with Our Channel (13th in 2014), Storm The Stars (3rd in 2015) and Young Rascal (7th in 2018).
This year he runs the well-fancied Mohaafeth, a son of Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare.
“There are probably only four stallions that could breed the winner of all five Classics,” Haggas says.
“Galileo is getting on in years now, Dubawi might struggle with the Leger, but you can’t buy a Galileo and you can’t buy a Dubawi, but you can buy a Frankel and you can buy a Sea The Stars.
“For us, who are not involved with Ballydoyle or Godolphin, Sea The Stars and Frankel are the two where you have a chance of winning the Guineas and the Derby if they’re that good.
“So many other stallions, they either won’t stay or they stay too well and they can’t win a Derby as they want two miles.
“The race means exactly the same as it did 25 years ago in that it’s the ultimate race for an English trainer to win or to try to win. We’ve thrown a few darts at it unsuccessfully and it’s a very hard race to win.
“Horses like Shaamit don’t come along very often, but that was a long time ago and since then Galileo has come along and I think it’s fair to say he’s dominated the race. When Galileo is no longer producing horses it might open the race up to Sea The Stars!”
Reputation
This year’s Derby will hardly be a celebration of people getting back together at the fun of the fair. Where millions once stood to witness this most important of races, a mere 4000 will descend on the Downs, the smallest of steps in the right direction as we tentatively welcome back spectators.
It is with hope we are approaching a post-Covid era and such sensitivities bring perspective when it comes to worrying about the reputation of a horse race.
But the Derby is special and I baulk at suggestions that this is a race that has lost its lustre and significance.
O’Brien is the most legendary training figure of the 21st century and his legacy will live long after the Derby has been run for the 300th time.
He could win a ninth Derby on Saturday and such an achievement is one to be celebrated. If Bolshoi Ballet wins in the style of his father, sparking the hope that he can carry the torch and be a crucial cog in forging the breed for the next generation, then all the better.
But if it’s not to be Aidan O’Brien, and it’s not to be Galileo with one of his last hurrahs, then could the 2021 Derby signal a changing of the guard?
Could it be Frankel, Galileo’s greatest son, who begins his own period of Derby domination? He’s had just three runners in the race before without success, but this year he has a quartet with a realistic chance of winning in John Leeper, Hurricane Lane, the aforementioned Mohaafeth and Adayar.
Sea The Stars is going for his second Derby win after Harzand and his Third Realm, in the colours of 1998 Derby winner High-Rise, looks his most obvious contender this time around. Could the heir apparent to Galileo be Galileo’s half-brother himself?
Like Haggas suggests, a win for either of those two stallions will give hope to everyone at the top end of the racing table outside of Ballydoyle.
The deciding factor will be by running the Derby, which is as it should be. But whether it’s Galileo again, or not, this year’s renewal looks pivotal when it comes to either extending O’Brien’s dominance in the race, or making it ever so slightly more of a level playing field.