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Tennis betting tips

1pt first set total games over 12.5 in Kevin Anderson v Matteo Berrettini at 5/2

1pt Radu Albot (+9.5) to beat Roberto Bautista Agut on the game handicap at 4/5

1pt Alexei Popyrin to beat David Goffin at 3/1

Kevin Anderson v Matteo Berrettini

This looks like it could be a very serve-dominated match and so a first-set tie-break is very much at the forefront of my thinking. Anderson lost his serve only once in three matches at last week’s warm-up in Melbourne, while Berrettini sparkled at the ATP Cup event where his delivery looked in good working order. The Italian is among my outright picks and I feel his greater additional weapons can see him win the day here but a tight first set seems highly likely, particularly given the pair will be facing each other for the first time. Prices above 2/1 look worth taking.

Radu Albot v Roberto Bautista Agut

Don’t get me wrong, Bautista Agut is highly likely to win this but is he really a 1/100 shot which is what some firms have him at? The Spaniard was playing a high level of opponent at last week’s ATP Cup but as a result wins were thin on the ground. Crucially, RBA doesn’t have huge weapons so he doesn’t completely dominate opponents too often. The fast conditions – and it’s expected to be much hotter than Monday - should help Albot, who only a few months ago beat both Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz during the indoor swing. During the last ‘full’ season, he defeated then-top-20 star Marin Cilic at one of the quicker venues, Cincinnati, while he also made the semis in Montpellier. I think he can keep this closer than the layers are expecting and feel he can cover a 9.5-game start in what will be the pair’s first meeting.

David Goffin v Alexei Popyrin

I’m not hugely keen on the underdogs on Tuesday but one who has a chance of an upset is Australian Popyrin. He’s performed well in his home Grand Slam in the past couple of years, reaching the third round on both occasions. The 6ft 5in star, unsurprisingly, has a big serve and he used it well last week in Melbourne when he won two matches before pushing second seed Grigor Dimitrov to a deciding set. It’s been some time since we saw the best of Goffin. Indeed, he’s gone 7-8 since the sport’s lockdown ended last August. The latest of those losses came at the hands of the admittedly-talented but also highly-inexperienced teenager Carlos Alcaraz last week so he’s coming in pretty cold.

Published at 0915 GMT on 08/02/21

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