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Racing betting tips: Sunday December 20

1pt win Mortens Leam in 1.45 Fakenham at 7/1 (minimum 11/2)

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A-Ha! Mortens The One - 1.45 Fakenham

On a poor day, we’re not keen to throw the points around, and our only play at current odds is Mortens Leam in this 2m5f handicap chase. The 8-y-o is a tricky ride, needing to be produced late off a fast pace, and he tends to down tools in front, so isn’t the ideal betting medium most of the time. On the flip-side, he’s well suited by a sharp track, and he performs better around tight turns than he does on a galloping track, with the former scenario tending to keep his quirks in check. Granted a turning track or one with tight bends, he has won four of his 12 chase starts, and that includes a first and a second from two tries here. Three of today’s rivals have made the running in recent starts, so the selection should get the strong pace which suits, and the ideal scenario is that he is asked to pounce only jumping the last, with the short run-in giving him little time to think about what he’s doing in front.

1.15 Fakenham

A race which can be whittled down to a handful without too much effort. Eva’s Diva, on her first run for the excellent D J Jeffreys, is on a good mark and whatever she does here, is one to watch with a view to future handicaps. She had been racing freely and not lasting home for Phil Middleton, so it looks a little odd that she’s being upped markedly in trip, although her full-sister Rubenesque stayed 3m, as did her dam, so the move could be inspired. Always Able is unexposed and can improve, but I’m not sure the track will suit. Piggy Winkle was a ready winner on good ground at Market Rasen in November before becoming stuck in Chepstow’s mud last time out, and could easily bounce back, but we were with Jonjoela at Market Rasen on her latest start and for 96.5% of that race we looked like collecting, as Harry Bannister gave her a lovely stop-start ride from the front and seemed to have nicked it when quickening clear at the top of the home straight. Sadly, the well-handicapped Sissinghurst came out of the pack to chase her down, and her goose was cooked at the last. There’s not a lot of pace on here, so expect to see similar tactics employed. Fully effective under conditions, as she showed when second to the improving Skylanna Breeze here the time before, and she’ll take a bit of beating despite another nudge up the weights.

4.45 Southwell

Red Bravo is a risky one, but is shaping like a step back up to 7f is worth a try after two placed efforts here over 6f on his last two starts. He’s no win machine, but a 4l win in soft ground at Nottingham in October shows that he knows how when given the opportunity, and his Fibresand form is starting to stack up nicely enough. His fourth here last time is working out fine, with the second and third fighting out another close finish on their next start, giving it a solid look. For a hold-up horse who can be slow ro stride, stall 3 might not be ideal, but what pace in the race there is looks to be up his inside, and if he doesn’t dwell, perhaps he can use them to give him a tow into the race before coming with a late charge. His poor strike rate means that we’d only want to get involved at double figures, and he’s not quite there now.

• Preview posted 1800 GMT on 19/12/2020