Free racing tips: Betting advice from leading tipster Rory Delargy

• NEW tipster: Rory Delargy is one of the country's leading racing tipsters and is currently top of the Racing Post Naps table with a level-stakes profit of over £100 - more than double that of his nearest pursuer.

Recommended Bets, October 11

1pt win Cayirli in 1.15 Goodwood at 20/1 (minimum price 16/1)

1pt win Twilight Heir to beat Caribou in 1.50 Goodwood (Straight F/C)

1pt e.w Eye of the Water in 3.25 Goodwood at 9/1 (minimum price 9/2)

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Fresh Wind: Cayirli 1:15 Goodwood

The heavy ground at Goodwood makes punting difficult, and quick thinking often plays a part with jockeys looking to get on to the perceived better ground in the straight. That can count against hold-up horses, but jockeys coming all the way over to the stands rail can sometimes be made to look foolish, as when Harry Bentley was well beaten on the Prestige Stakes favourite Pomelo.

The staying handicap lacks any true mudlarks, but Cayirli handled very soft ground when trained in France. More significantly, he landed a big shock when winning the Queen’s Prize at Kempton a couple of years back, returning from an 18-month break and winning at 50/1. He’s only had two runs on soft turf since, making the frame both times, and while his last two starts were disappointing, a breathing operation since the latter gives an obvious explanation for what ailed him.

Cayirli has been off for almost 15 months, but drops into Class 4 company for the first time in his life, and with his proven ability to go well after a lengthy break, he’s capable of causing another upset.

Sunny Forecast: Twilight Heir/Caribou 1:50 Goodwood

I find it very hard to see favourite Twilight Heir beaten in the maiden auction – after all, Michael Bell’s juvenile is a winner on heavy ground, and was surrounded by future winners when runner-up in a hot novice at Redcar last time. The first and third from that contest have since finished first and second in a nursery, while the fourth won a novice on his next start. That makes Twilight Heir’s form look about 10lb better than it did, and he should have no trouble dominating this field. Unfortunately, he’s well found in the market, but there is one angle to play.

There appear only two dangers, but while Mark’s Bear is put in as clear second favourite, there are reasons to believe he won’t improve on his promising Ascot debut. Those reasons lie in his siblings, Muzaahim, Garden World and Dame Liberty. All three showed promise early on, but none of them progressed at all, notably Dame Liberty, who looked useful when winning first time out as a juvenile, but was tailed off next time and was sold cheaply, while Garden World won on July of his 2-y-o season, but barely beat a rival when sent handicapping.

Ryan Moore looks a notable booking for his father, but that could not be more misleading, with the pair enjoying a strike-rate of less than 5% (2-42) in the past five years. He’ll also qualify for a handicap mark if he doesn’t finish last, and I don’t think he will trouble the favourite. Take a live price if possible about Twilight Heir beating Caribou, who has twice run to a solid level, and already has a handicap mark

Extra Place: Eye of The Water 3:25 Goodwood

With four places on offer here with most firms, and testing ground ruling out most of these, in-form soft ground specialist Eye of The Water pretty much picks himself. His lifetime record in handicaps over 6f/7f on soft or deeper ground is 1322, and he made a bold bit to make all at Salisbury last week, eventually giving best to Ice Station Zebra, but keeping on best of the rest, and looking better than ever in the process.

He will again attempt to make all, and he has no obvious pace pressure near him. Old Pettochside can’t be ignored, but he’s high enough in the handicap again, while a very high draw in this ground can be a negative. I hope that William Buick, taking over from Joshua Bryan, keeps his mount in the centre of the course rather than trying to come across to the rail, but I’m sure Buick will know where the best of the ground is, and he won’t be dictated to by others.

Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power go 9/1 and that price is too good to miss.

Notebook Horse: Leading Knight 4.15 Newton Abbot

Ben Pauling had a torrid time of it last season, a batch of hay which proved to be deficient in potassium played havoc with the wellbeing of his horses at the worst time of last season, and the yard struggled to get things back on an even keel despite finding the source of the problem.

Thankfully, those issues seem to be behind him, and while backing his runners blind isn’t recommended, David has made paddock notes about plenty of backward hurdlers from last season that he expects to show improvement this term, and one of those is Leading Knight, who makes his handicap bow at Newton Abbot on Sunday.

Leading Knight looked a big, raw and indeed very green horse on his first two starts of last year but on both occasions caught the eye. He lost a shoe when well held on his final start, and that can be forgiven, and he has the scope to do much better in time. The worry is that handicap debutants from the yard are rarely primed first time, so this is liable to be a sighter. He’s worth monitoring in the race with a view to betting him in a more appropriate contest.

Chess Player is another Pauling horse to note in the 2:15. Second on debut to the ill-fated December Second at Ayr, he travelled like a good horse and gave the impression he would improve markedly. That was back in the April of 2019, and he’s not been seen since, so there have clearly been some training issues, and militates against betting him at fairly short odds.

Posted at 1730 on 10/10/20

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.