Ian Ogg analyses the last 10 renewals of Saturday's Qatar Stewards' Cup at Goodwood and picks out the key statistics.
The last two renewals of the Qatar Stewards' Cup have been won by three-year-olds carrying penalties having won at Newmarket's July Meeting.
Both Dancing Star and Magical Memory were sent off as favourite to continue the fine record of fancied horses in this large-field handicap. The pair were rated 102 which is 1lb higher than Bunbury Cup (a race that produced 2010 winner Evens And Odds) second Sir Dancealot runs off in this early-closing handicap and the booking of Ryan Moore obviously takes the eye for a horse who is now rated 110.
It's no surprise that he's among the more fancied runners and the record of those from towards the top of the market has been in stark contrast to last weekend's Gigaset International where Stamp Hill showed the benefit of first time headgear to win at 50/1.
His trainer Richard Fahey will hope that the aids have a similar impact for either Brian The Snail or Eastern Impact and the latter is now 10lb below his career high mark and wasn't beaten all that far in the Wokingham.
He's drawn in 11 which is probably not ideal (although underfoot conditions are likely to remain far from typical) despite winners having been drawn between 1 and 26. One of the scorers did emerge from 11 but the winners have tended to be drawn close to either rail with three between 1 and 4 and five from 18 and higher.
Not surprisingly winners have tended to have been kept fairly busy and PROJECTION, who looked unlucky in last year's consolation race and again (possibly) in the Wokingham, would become one of the lightest raced (during the current season) having had just the two starts.
That certainly wouldn't be a sufficient basis to rule him out though and his trainer Roger Charlton won this race in 2009 and 2003 with horses that had contested the Wokingham. Projection is towards the higher end of the ratings range on a mark of 105, indeed only the remarkable Hoof It has been rated higher and that was as a result of carrying a 6lb penalty for his win the previous week in the Sky Bet Dash at York.
Al Qahwa finished second in this season's renewal on the Knavesmire sprint and has been running well since joining David O'Meara and merits a place on the short-list as does last year's third Raucous, Polybius and Classic Seniority who wasn't all that far behind Projection at last year's meeting despite finding trouble.
Outback Traveller hasn't shone in two runs this season but he was fifth in his group in the Wokingham and the six-year-old is one of several in the field sporting headgear for the first time. He couldn't be dismissed if he reacts positively to the visor but the claims of the runner in the stall next to him are crystal clear and perhaps Projection, who has yet to win a class 2 handicap or better, will finally get the breaks his efforts have deserved.