Sky Bet Ebor Festival 2024: View from the trader
We caught up with Luke Quinn of the Sky Bet trading team to get his Ebor Festival fancies and to find out who has been popular in the betting.
Who is your banker of the meeting?
No prizes for originality but the general 2/1 available about Asfoora (who has been popular over the last 10 days, backed in from 3/1) for the Nunthorpe still looks a fair price.
It's 1-1 between her and Big Evs on their meetings this season, but she was giving 5lb to that one when beaten a short head at Goodwood in the King George Qatar Stakes and will have a 6lb pull at the weights for this contest, so she is definitely the one they all have to beat.
Where's the money been going in the Juddmonte International?
No surprise that City Of Troy is responsible for just over 50% of total stakes taken on the race so far. Having initially been left an unchanged 7/4 following his workmanlike win in the Eclipse at Sandown, he has hardened plenty at the head of the market and is now 8/11 (having still been available at 10/11 two weeks ago).
Alflaila has been a popular choice since the beginning of the month, having advertised his claims when winning the Sky Bet York Stakes at the end of July. He was initially cut to 12/1 from 16/1 on the back of that win but is now 8/1 for the Juddmonte following further support.
Who do you fancy to come out on top in the Juddmonte International?
Heart ruling head, I’d like to see City Of Troy win in good style and put himself up there with some of the best champions we’ve had in recent times, but head ruling heart, I couldn’t part with any money at the current price with that run at Sandown still firmly in my thoughts, especially with the likes of the Alflaila and French raider Calandagan offering stiffer competition than that he faced in the Eclipse.
Which horses have proved popular in the Sky Bet Ebor ante-post betting?
John Smith’s Cup fifth Epic Poet has proved very popular in the betting (currently 9/1 favourite), as has the William Haggas-trained Naqeeb, who was initially put in at 25/1, but is now 10/1, these are the two worst results for us at present.
Who do you fancy in the Sky Bet Ebor?
There are cases to be made for a lot of these and it looks a really strong renewal.
I’m a big fan of James Owen, who has made an extremely bright start to his training career in both codes. I thought that his Burdett Road (one-time ante-post favourite for the 2024 Triumph Hurdle) shaped very well on his recent return at Ascot (had missed the spring jumps festivals through injury), doing his best work at the finish despite not being knocked about.
The form of that run has been franked (the second has since come out and won) and the extra two furlongs in the Ebor, combined with a likely strong pace, should suit Burdett Road well. I think odds of 16/1 underestimate his chances.
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