Simon Holt previews the action on day one of the Cheltenham Festival and takes Vintage Clouds to strike in the Ultima Handicap Chase.
Simon's best bets:
The first day of the Cheltenham Festival provides an immediate battle-ground between bookmakers and punters as, not for the first time in recent years, several hot favourites are set to dominate the betting.
Statistically, they won't all win though Buveur D'Air and Apple's Jade in the Unibet Champion Hurdle and OLBG Mares Hurdle appear well ahead of their rivals with likely odds to match.
However, it's possible that Getabird, long-time market leader for the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle could be more vulnerable as KALASHNIKOV looks a formidable rival.
The latter's victory in last month's Betfair Hurdle earned him a rating of 154 and he has the most likeable of attitudes; while pushed along intermittently by Jack Quinlan in the back straight at Newbury, he simply powered home with head bowed low in the closing stages with, one by one, his rivals wilting away.
On his previous start, when beaten by Summerville Boy at Sandown, Kalashnikov never stopped trying despite appearing unsuited by ground described as heavy, and he was much better able to cope with the merely soft ground at Newbury.
Providing conditions are not too bad, and given the obvious improvement of his subsequent win, the Sandown placings can be turned round.
Getabird's latest victory, slamming Mengli Khan by nine lengths at Punchestown in January was an impressive performance even if the runner-up may have his quirks.
Ruby Walsh's mount has done nothing wrong, and handles deep ground well, but it is interesting that he ran over two-and-a-half miles on his hurdling debut on the same course in December and, even in the soft, the Supreme demands plenty of speed.
In last year's Ultima Handicap Chase, VINTAGE CLOUDS was running a good race in sixth place when falling at the second last behind Un Temps Pour Tout and the re-opposing Singlefarmpayment.
Although worse off with the latter now, their careers have headed in different directions in the last few months, and Sue Smith's grey has certainly improved with a decent fourth in the Welsh Grand National and subsequent second to Ballyoptic at Wetherby.
With his jumping much better too, he should be in the shake-up.
Recent Exeter (3m) winner Coo Star Sivola, who has run well at two previous Festivals, will be on many shortlists (but hasn't been missed by the bookmakers) and Beware The Bear is capable enough if on a going day as he stays extremely well.
The latter's stable-companion Gold Present has made good progress this term thus warranting top weight, but is unproven on ground worse than good-to-soft.
Simon Holt's recommended bets
2pts win Kalashinov in 1.30 Cheltenham at 9/2
2pts win Vintage Clouds in 2.50 Cheltenham at 10/1