Simon Holt has a tip for Sandown and Haydock on Saturday with an early Grand National casualty backed to bounce back.
Recommended bets: Simon Holt
2pts win Blaklion in 3.35 Sandown at 6/1
2pts win Mijack in 2.05 Haydock at 3/1
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With such notable exceptions as Arkle, Mill House, The Dikler, Diamond Edge, Tidal Bay and one or two others, Saturday's bet365 Gold Cup has invariably been won by a horse carrying under 11 stone which illustrates the standard that BLAKLION must reach at Sandown if he's to defy 11st12lb.
However, having been brought down at the first fence in the Grand National, Nigel Twiston Davies' classy chaser goes to post a fresh horse on this second outing since receiving a wind operation and, when one considers that Theatre Guide went close to winning last year under a similar burden but off a much lower rating, then there is cause for optimism especially as several who chased home shock winner Henllan Harri in a bunch finish that day (Benbens fourth, Rock The Kasbah sixth, Sugar Baron seventh, The Young Master ninth) are in action again.
Moreover, two years ago, Sausalito Sunrise was a close third off 159 and, while Tidal Bay was rated just 154 in 2012, he routed the field.
A really impressive winner of the Becher Chase at Aintree carrying 11st6lb earlier in the season and a past winner of the RSA Chase on good ground, this test could suit Blaklion really well and, while the heart might be ruling the head a bit, I find it difficult to get too excited about many of his clearly inferior but lighter-weighted rivals.
Fresh from his Cheltenham Festival win, Missed Approach will be on many shortlists though an 8lb rise from 138 to 146 for beating the 143-rated Mall Dini (who was conceding 5lb) half a length looks slightly over the top.
Once considered a soft ground horse, the eight-year-old seems to handle a quicker surface (though forecasted rain is likely to ease conditions) and his second to recent National winner Tiger Roll in the Cheltenham 4-miler in 2017 certainly catches the eye.
Wind surgery seemed to bring about a change in fortunes for Missed Approach last month and, at the very least, a reproduction of that effort should see him run another bold race despite the rise in the handicap and a change of venue from Prestbury Park which seems to suit him so well.
Trainer Peter Bowen, who seeks to follow-up Henlan Harri's victory with Minella Daddy, will probably hope that the rain doesn't amount to too much even though the gelding ran well behind Regal Encore (4lb worse) at Ascot on soft ground at Ascot in February before struggling through the mud at Cheltenham.
The best of this horse's form is almost certainly on good ground (but also at Ascot) and it's quite possible he could leave that last run behind here.
Regal Encore should be fresh after missing the National and had Missed Approach, Carole's Destrier, Bigbadjohn and Present Man behind him when a creditable third in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in November.
In-between that win and his Ascot defeat of Minella Daddy, he was pulled up for the seventh time in his last 13 starts so much depends on whether he's in the right frame of mind.
Perhaps the best handicapped horse in the field is 2016 winner The Young Master who now runs from a 13lb lower rating.
The now nine-year-old has failed to hit the target subsequently but shaped with more promise behind Missed Approach at Cheltenham though an 8lb pull here hardly entitles him to turn the tables.
At Haydock, MJJACK is taken to follow up a recent Newmarket win in the Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap.
Considered a future Listed/Group horse by trainer Karl Burke, the soft-ground loving four-year-old beat subsequent Chelmsford winner Love Dreams in decisive fashion that day with Newmarket course specialist Accession well back in third.
Up 6lb, Mjjack returns to a course where he has twice been successful and looks well drawn on the inside for a handy racer.
Musselburgh winner Lualiwa could be the danger, though is held by the selection on form at Ascot last September when Mjjack chased home Remarkable.