Racing commentator Simon Holt is backing a 33/1 chance in Saturday's Randox Health Grand National as he searches for the value plays at Aintree.
Recommended bets
1pt e.w. Raz De Maree in 5.15 Aintree at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win The Worlds End in 4.20 Aintree at 8/1
1pt win Holly Bush Henry in 3.40 Aintree at 16/1
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Irish horses dominated last month's Cheltenham Festival and they may well do so again in Saturday's Randox Health Grand National at Aintree in which RAZ DE MAREE's remarkable staying powers could prove decisive in the closing stages.
Although a 13-year-old, Gavin Cromwell's gelding seems better than ever having won the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow in early January and it was in that same race a year earlier that he chased home last month's Gold Cup winner Native River, closing fast on the run-in and going under by less than two lengths.
Raz De Maree had little luck in last year's National, unseating Ger Fox at first Bechers when trying to avoid a fallen horse (Robbie Power takes the mount this time), but he runs off the same mark now despite that Chepstow success.
In a race in which stamina seems more important than ever these days, this dour veteran must go very close if anywhere near the leaders crossing the Melling Road for the final time.
In a similar mould, Baie Des Iles looks sure to benefit from this extreme test. Fifth behind Native River and Raz De Maree in that Welsh National renewal, she has enjoyed a good preparation, running a fine race to finish third behind Folsom Blue in Punchestown's Grand National Trial in February, and should give Katie Walsh a great shot at becoming the first female jockey to win the National.
With Gold Cup third Anibale Fly and Cross Country winner Tiger Roll obvious leading contenders, providing they have recovered from their Cheltenham Festival exertions, the Irish challenge has great depth.
Anibale Fly, who stayed on strongly for a career-best effort behind Native River and Might Bite, is very attractively handicapped here being 9lb well-in at the weights, and Barry Geraghty's mount certainly gave the impression he would stay further that day.
Meanwhile, Tiger Roll appears guaranteed to get the trip having won the Cheltenham four-miler in 2017 before beating Urgent De Gregaine last month with 2016 Grand National runner-up The Last Samuri (now 9lb worse off) 11 lengths back in third.
While only small, the eight-year-old jumps soundly and, while it could be argued his form at Cheltenham is better than at any other venue, he has many of the attributes you would look for in a National winner.
Although facing a stiff task against Tiger Roll at the weights here, it is not difficult to imagine The Last Samuri, fitted with a tongue strap for the first time, running another big race.
Kim Bailey’s incredibly gutsy stayer boiled over before last year’s National but was back to form here behind Blaklion in the Becher in December and, providing he remains chilled in the preliminaries, looks sure to be in the shake up.
Blaklion, so impressive that day (though now 8lb worse off with The Last Samuri) and fourth in last year’s National after looking the winner turning for home, can hardly be dismissed either even though there is a slight stamina doubt.
The classy nine-year-old didn’t have the best preparation when jumping with less conviction than usual and finishing very tired in bog-deep ground behind Yala Enki in the Haydock Grand National Trial but has had a wind operation since and is one of the classier horses in the race.
The above named contenders are my six against the 40-strong field with Raz De Maree considered cracking each-way value at around the 33/1 mark.
Simon Holt's Grand National six
- Raz De Maree
- Tiger Roll
- The Last Samuri
- Blaklion
- Anibale Fly
- Baie Des Iles
Earlier, THE WORLDS END is taken to win at this meeting for the second year running in the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle.
Tom George's gelding finished well behind likely favourite Sam Spinner earlier in the season but got much closer to that horse when staying on well in seventh behind Penhill at the Cheltenham Festival.
It's likely that Sam Spinner did not set a fast enough pace that day, but the slow gallop wouldn't have suited The Worlds End either and, if Adrian Heskin's mount is about to hit form as he did this time last year when looking possibly unlucky at Cheltenham and then winning the three-mile novices' hurdle at this meeting, he could turn the tables.
Ideally, The Worlds End might prefer faster ground but he ran well on the soft at Cheltenham and, considering he was only about a length behind Sam Spinner that day, he looks a value bet.
Stayers Hurdle third Wholestone holds them both on that form, but it remains to be seen if he can repeat the effort away from Cheltenham where he has become a course specialist while this looks a big ask for L'Ami Serge if turning out so soon after his Aintree Hurdle win on Thursday.
In the Betway Handicap Chase, I will take a chance on a freshened-up HOLLY BUSH HENRY gaining another victory this season.
Trainer Phil Middleton has done a great job reviving this horse’s fortunes and, despite finishing a good second to Ballydine at Sandown in early February, he is still rated 7lb lower over fences than over hurdles.
With regular partner James Bowen taking off an additional 3lb, Holly Bush Henry still appears handily treated on this first outing for a couple of months.
Posted at 1250 BST on 13/04/18