In a dramatic Champion Hurdle earlier this week, the increasing vulnerability of Constitution Hill, the nation's favourite racehorse, was only too plain to see.
The eight-year-old's heavy fall at the fifth flight was accompanied by a massive groan from the stands but, for those who had closely watched his previous two races this season, such a calamitous mistake should not have come as a total surprise.
In the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, Constitution Hill took off practically outside the wing of the fourth flight and had to reach hard to get across. It was a spectacular leap but very risky.
Then, in the Unibet Hurdle in late January, he crashed through the last when firmly in charge over inferior rivals.
Before last Tuesday's shocking fall, that was by the far the worst jump of his career and can probably be blamed on lack of concentration because there was nothing good enough to give him a race.
Maybe Nico De Boinville could have been more positive going into the flight but, nevertheless, it was an amber light. When jumping horses get older and more experienced, they ought to become better, safer jumpers but that isn't always the case at all as early 'fast twitch' flamboyance can be replaced by slowing reflexes and reduced agility.
Constitution Hill remains an exceptionally bold and fast jumper but is he losing his sense of judgement?
Also, nobody can be sure if this is the same horse now who swept majestically to victory in Supreme and Champion Hurdles. Those wins arrowed his name into the hearts of many racing fans so that he quickly became public property. Such superstars come along only rarely and, therefore, it is understandable if there is plenty of pressure to take special care of them.
Constitution Hill is lightly raced for his age, and now looks likely to be heading to Punchestown which could be thrilling but also very worrying even if he schools well at home.
Many of his fans will be watching between their fingers.
It would be great to see him jump accurately and win but I think Nicky Henderson and owner Michael Buckley might consider an alternative plan for the horse afterwards, and that is to run him on the Flat.
When his great speed became evident early on, there was talk that Constitution Hill could be good enough to win top middle distance or staying races during the summer. A crack at the Gold Cup was even mentioned by some pundits and victory in the Royal Ascot centrepiece would be an extraordinary achievement for a Champion Hurdler.
Over the years, Henderson has more than proved that he can deliver big Flat results with good jumping horses, having won the Cesarewitch three times with Landing Light, Caracciola and Buzz. There have been other successes: in the Ascot Stakes (with Veiled and Ahorsewithnoname), the Queen Alexandra (Caracciola) and the Chester Cup (No Heretic). In 2008, Punjabi won handicaps at Newmarket and Sandown after finishing third to Sublimity in the Champion Hurdle and winning at Punchestown. And the Christmas Hurdle winner Verdana Blue was second in an Ascot Stakes and then third in the Ebor.
With a hurdles rating of 175 (surely due for some reappraisal), the 35lb difference between the Flat and Jumps handicap would suggest a 'Frankelesque' mark of around 140 for Constitution HIll on the level.
That hardly seems realistic when the champion stayer Kyprios is 'only' rated 122 but a line through the Christmas Hurdle third (and Champion Hurdle runner-up) Burdett Road, who is rated 150, still indicates he is capable of a well above 160 performance over hurdles.
State Man, who would surely have won by a wide margin last Tuesday but for crashing out at the last, is rated 168 and, for some reason, a wider divergence in the two ratings scales seems to prevail amongst top-class horses.
Even so, there is enough evidence to suggest that the son of Blue Bresil, a sire who has produced many good jumpers but ran in the Prix du Jockey Club as a three-year-old and was listed and Group placed, could be capable of cutting it at a high level on the Flat.
And one thing's for certain, an appearance by Constitution Hill at Royal Ascot in June would be great for the meeting and great for the sport.
He would be the star attraction and could take on Kyprios or even run in the Hardwicke Stakes, or attempt to follow in the footsteps of the legendary Brown Jack, who won the Queen Alexandra six times (plus the Ascot Stakes, Goodwood Cup, Doncaster Cup, Chester Cup and Ebor) following his Champion Hurdle success in 1928.
Most importantly, by running on the Flat, this superb, much loved horse would hopefully avoid the sort of fall that could have killed him at Cheltenham.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.