Ebor Festival day four free betting tips: Simon Holt's selections

Recommended bets: Simon Holt - York day four

1pt win Top Tug 3.35 York at best morning price

2pts win Mustashry 1.55 York at best morning price

1pt Nebo 3.00 York at best morning price

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Saturday's Betfred Ebor Handicap is as competitive as ever but TOP TUG looks sure to take a hand in the finish if continuing his good form this season.

Well beaten in this race last year (absent for a while afterwards), despite having a consistent record at York, Alan King's gelding has run three excellent races since being switched back to the Flat following a few runs over hurdles.

On his reappearance in May, Top Tug was receiving just 3lb from the winner when chasing home the classy Frontiersman at Newmarket, after which he overcame trouble in running to win over this trip of a mile-and-three-quarters at Goodwood in comfortable fashion.

In one subsequent run, Martin Harley's mount probably found a mile-and-a-half on fast ground on the sharp side when staying on into fourth behind Rare Rhythm in the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot, on which form he is closely weighted here with third-placed Star Storm.

However, the latter has a very wide draw to overcome now whereas Top Tug is well positioned towards the inside and, freshened up since the Royal meeting, a big run can be expected over what should be an ideal course and distance.

Meanwhile, the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle in June provides a couple of fancied runners, namely the runner-up Natural Scenery and third-placed Flymetothestars, but little more than two lengths covered the first six home that day and one wonders what the form amounts to.

Higher Power, the winner, has since finished well beaten in the Goodwood Cup.

Both Nakeeta and Seamour are old favourites of this column, the former going close in last year's Chester Cup while the latter finished fifth here last year, but both are passed over (a little reluctantly) as they are just struggling to win off their current marks despite being the right types for the race.

Meanwhile, if the inconsistent Elidor has a going day, he is capable of going well at a big price while Magic Circle, a decisive winner over two miles here earlier in the week, looks interesting making a quick reappearance under a 4lb penalty providing he copes with the drop in trip and tougher opposition.

Earlier, MUSTASHRY appeals strongly as the most progressive horse in the Group Three Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes.

Sir Michael Stoute's four-year-old comes here after producing a strong late run to win a handicap under 9st10lb at Chelmsford over a mile 11 days ago, and this extra furlong is very likely to suit him.

On his previous start, reappearing after an 11-month absence in the Betfred Mile at Goodwood, Mustashry also caught the eye staying on in the closing stages after not getting the best of runs and, a year ago at this meeting, he produced a tremendous run from the back of the field in a competitive mile handicap only to fail by half a length to catch an in-form Firmament.

Jim Crowley's mount is surely ready for this step up to Group company.

Later on, in the Group Two Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes, Crowley could be on the mark again aboard NEBO.

Trainer Charles Hills has a high opinion of this Kodiac colt who made a sparkling debut at Newbury in May and has since run second in Group Two contests at Newmarket (7f) and Goodwood (6f), chasing home the smart Barraquero on the latter occasion with Cardsharp (same terms) over two lengths further back in third and Headway disappointing (possibly unsuited by the soft ground) in sixth.

Nebo comes out just top of the official ratings here and deserves to go one better at this level.

Posted at 1045 BST on 25/08/17.

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